EARTHSS 15 Lecture Notes - Lecture 14: Radiative Forcing, Ice Age, Lapse Rate

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Which way the wind blows: changes a lot. Climate: depends on where you live. Location relative to global circulation features: changes very slowly, very predictavble. Earths baseline climate as a black box : for clomate change we consider changes in the forcing and ask what is the change in the response. Changes in climate: essential for thinking about climate change, change in forcing, response: change in surface temperature) For a doubling co2 how large is the change in the forcing of the climate system: 4 w/m^2. The bare rock model predicts earths climate is not very sensitive to changes in forcing. But the earth is not a bare rock. It is full of feedbacks and this matters to climate sensivity. Warmer air can hold more water ( really important) Increased water vapor increased infrared heat trapping via the green house effect, amplifying warming or cooling.

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