EARTHSS 15 Lecture Notes - Lecture 19: Standard Deviation, Water Vapor, Sea Level Rise
8 Nov 2016
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Document Summary
Warming since 1900 less than 1c over ocean. Warming since 1900 around 1 c over land. Difference in climate between a low emission (rcp 2. 6) and high emissions (rcp 8. 5) don"t become large until mid century. 68% of values fall within 1 standard deviation of mean. 95% within 2 standard deviations of mean, 99% within 3 standard deviation. Bell curves also known as normal distributions . People, crops, aniamls, economies, ecosystems, tend to be more sensitvive to extreemes than averages. Small changes in averages produce large changes in extremes. Changes in the shape of the distribution also produce changes in extremes. Plants and animals move with changing climates. Extent of infestation: a massiver prition of the boreal forest in canada and us, estimated co2 emissions ~10% of fossil fuel for 1 year. Droight doesn"t just happen when it doesn"t rain enough. Also depends on evaportation losses and our ability to tap strored water in wells and reservoirs.
