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PUBHLTH 1 (54)
Zuzana Bic (19)
Lecture 7

PUBHLTH 1 Lecture 7: Lecture 7&8 4/17/17-4/19/17
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Department
Public Health
Course
PUBHLTH 1
Professor
Zuzana Bic
Semester
Spring

Description
Chapter 7 Statistics: Making Sense of Uncertainty Statistics is The numbers that describe the health of the population The science used to interpret these numbers The Uncertainty of Science Most science is of a probable nature Science is ongoing studies may contradict each other The science of statistics can quantify the degree of uncertainty Probability estimated chance of particular situation for occurring The probable is what usually happens Power of a Study The probability of finding an effect, if there is in fact an effect Large numbers confer power more participants in order to have statistical significance Statistics of Screening Tests Examples of screening: Mammography for breast cancer HIV tests Newborn screening Sensitivity vs. specificity Sensitivity how accurately a test identifies people who have the the disease (true positives) Specificity how accurately a test identifies people who dont have the disease (true negatives) False positive vs. False negative Rates Relate the raw numbers to size of population Birth rates Mortality rates Crude rates Adjusted rates E.g. age adjusted Group specific rates E.g. gender specific Other Calculated Statistics Life expectancy public healths goal not only to increase life expectancy, but also the quality of life Risk Assessment and Risk Perception For wellknown risks, can be calculated from historical data For poorly understood risks, must make many assumptions Risk perception involves psychological factors CostBenefit Analysis Cost is easier to calculate than benefit; e.g. big company employers dont like to implement public health policies because of the shortterm costs
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