SOCECOL 13 Lecture Notes - Lecture 17: Fallacy

• School: UC-Irvine
• Department: Social Ecology
• Course: SOCECOL 13
• Professor: Kenneth S.Chew

Document Summary

<> Relative-frequency interpretation = applies to situations that can be repeated over and over again. Examples: buying a weekly lottery ticket, is traffic signal red on a daily commute, testing individuals in a population for genetic markers, observing the sex of births. Probability = proportion of time an event occurs over the long run. In the long run, frequencies settle into probabilities. The expected value is the count of events expressed in their native units. If the probability of a male birth is . 51, Then the expected value for male births in 1,000 births is 510 births. <> People think the long-run frequency of an event should apply even in the short run. People tend to believe that a string of good luck will follow a string of bad luck in a casino.