SOC SCI H1E Lecture Notes - Lecture 1: Monty Hall Problem, Making Money, Utility
2 Apr 2019
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Belief revision model of knowledge from fall. In light of evidence we encounter there is bayes" method in which we go about changing our beliefs. We employ our degrees of belief to make decisions. Either you get or i will flip a coin and give you if it lands heads and sh if you get tails. Basically bigger gain if you take the lottery option. This analyses seems easy, but only assuming that we value money and we always value money in the same way. Imagine you"re in costa mesa and it"s late and you don"t have the to get home. More people would probably choose just to get the dollar, even though the expected value of the lottery option is higher. This is what matters to you, what you want or what you prefer, and it does not correspond perfectly with the expected value of money.
