SOC SCI H1G Lecture Notes - Lecture 19: Popular Science, Dutch Book, Foundationalism

• School: UC-Irvine
• Department: Social Science
• Course: SOC SCI H1G
• Professor: Jeff Barrettand Kyle Stanford

Document Summary

A & d: 25% chance to win , and 75% chance to lose . B & c: 25% chance to win , and 75% chance to lose . It"s hard to tra(cid:272)k reaso(cid:374)s: we"re (cid:374)ot hopeless, (cid:271)ut it"s tri(cid:272)k(cid:455, we can apply theories carefully and come up with the right answer. Maximize our return lead me to actions where i succeed. A collection of wagers such that one is guaranteed to lose money. Uppose that r a(cid:374)d are (cid:373)utuall(cid:455) e(cid:454)(cid:272)lusi(cid:448)e (cid:894)see pre(cid:448)ious le(cid:272)ture(cid:895: expected return is 0, so it seems like a fair bet, no matter what, the agent loses . My beliefs are supposed to be my best estimate to what is true or false in the world. If i have my values and my probabilities, i can calculate expected returns. Peirce (1839 1914) (cid:862)the fi(cid:454)atio(cid:374) of belief(cid:863) (cid:894)1(cid:1012)(cid:1011)(cid:1011)(cid:895), popular science monthly.