FIN 4243 Lecture Notes - Lecture 10: Cash Flow, Yield Curve, Yield Spread

39 views2 pages

taupedolphin629

18 Oct 2016

School

University of Florida

Department

Finance, Insurance and Real Estate

Course

FIN 4243

Professor

Maxim Dolinsky

For unlimited access to Class Notes, a Class+ subscription is required.

Document Summary

Factors affecting bond yields & the term structure of interest rates. Bonds of different maturities typically have different yields even if they have the same level of credit risk term structure. If you take bonds of differing maturities with the same risk and graph their yields vs maturities, you form a yield curve. Yield curves are typically formed with treasuries because they have the same (close to zero) credit risk. We can have an upward sloping, downward sloping, or flat term structure. Usually upward sloping, meaning high maturity bonds have a higher yield than low maturity. Downward sloping yield curve occur typically at the end of expansion phase of the business cycle. Heavy demand for credit, inflationary pressures, and tight money push all rates up but short term interest rates especially high. However, there are two prevailing theories: expectations theories and market segmentation theory.

Related Questions

Maria Juarez is a professional tennis player, and your firm manages her money. She has asked you to give her information about what determines the level of various interest rate. Your boss has prepared some questions for you to consider.

a) What are the four most fundamental factors that affect the cost of money, or the general level of interest rate, in the economy?

b) What is the real risk-free rate of interst (r*)and the nominal risk-free rate (r RF)? How are these two rates measured?

c) Define the term inflation premium(IP), default risk premium (DRP), liquidity premium (LP),and the maturity risk premium(MRP). Which of premium is included in determining the interst rate on (1)Short term U.S Treasury securities, (2)Long term U.S Treasury securities, (3)short term corporate securities, (4) long term coporate securities? Explain how the premiums would vary over time and among the different securities listed.

d) What is the term structure of interest rate? What is the yield curve?

e)Suppose most investors expect the inflation rate to be 5% next year, 6% the following year, and 8% thereafter. The real risk free rate is 3%. The maturity risk primium is zero for bonds that mature in 1 year or less and 0.1% for 2 years bonds; then the MRP increases by 0.1% per year thereafter for 20 years, after which it is stable. What is the interest on 1-,10-, and 20-year treasury bonds? Draw a yield curve with these data. What factor can explain why this constructed yield curve is upward-sloping?

f) At any give time, how would the yield curve facing a AAA rated company compare with the yield curve for U.S Treasury securities? At any given time, How would the yield curve facing a BB rated company compare with the yield curve for U.S treasury securities? Draw a graph to illustrat your answer.

g) What is the pure expectations theory? What does the pure expectation theory imply about the term structure of interest rate?

PROBLEMS, GRAPGHING

1. Suppose a candidate who runs on a platform of âsoak the richâ wins the 2016 presidential election. After being elected, he or she persuades Congress to raise the top marginal tax rate on the federal personal income tax to 65%.

a. Use one graph to show the effect of this change in tax rates on the market for municipal bonds and another graph to show the effect on the market for U.S. Treasury bonds.

b. What happened to the interest rate spread between municipal bonds and U.S. Treasury bonds and why?

Suppose that, holding yield constant, investors are indifferent as to whether they hold bonds issued by the federal government or bonds issued by state or local governments (they consider the bonds the same with respect to default risk and liquidity). Suppose that state government issued console with $60 annual payments and that the federal government has also issued console with $60 annual payments.

a. If the federal and state consoles have both the same after-tax yields of 6%, what are their pretax yields? (Assume that the federal income tax rate is 36%)

2. Suppose it is 2020 and 1-year interest rate is 5 percent. You observe that the interest rate on 2-year bond is 4.5%. Assume there is no liquidity premium and the interest rates are determined according to expectation hypothesis of the yield curve

a. Based on the interest rates above, what is the expected 1-year interest rate, starting one year from today?

b. If the interest rate on 3-year bond is 4%., what is the expected 1-year interest rate starting 2 years from today?

c. If the interest rate on 4-year bond is 4%., what is the expected 1-year interest rate starting 3 years from today?

d. Draw the yield curve for the next four years.

e. Is the yield curve for the next four years upward sloping or downward sloping? Explain why

f. What might the yield curve today indicate about future interest rates?

g What might the yield curve today indicate about future economic activity? Explain why?

h. What might the yield curve indicate about the marketsâ prediction for inflation rate in the next four years?

i. What might the yield curve indicate about monetary policy today?

j. What might the yield curve indicate about a long-term bonds price? Expected return on long-term bonds? Explain

k. Given the slope of the yield curve today, would you rather be lender or borrower in the next five years? Why?

3. The following is from an article in the Wall Street Journal, describing events in the market for Treasury securities on the given day: âTreasury prices were mixed, with the shorter end of the yield curve falling and the longer- dated Treasury rising in pricesâ.

a. Draw Treasury yield curve, showing the situation on that day as described in the sentence above.

Explain why prices of Treasury were mixed with the shorter end of the yield curve rising in prices and the longer- dated Treasury falling in prices.

Given the latest data on the state of the U.S. economy, assume that the Fed signals the next increase in the target for the federal funds. The increase wonât happen until the Fedâs meeting in summer of 2016.

Will the Treasury yield curve become more or less steep today?

Which of the following would you expect in the market for Treasury? Explain your choice

- There will be an increase in demand for bond today?

There will be a decrease in supply of bonds today?

There will be a decrease in demand for bonds today?

There will be an increase in supply of bonds today?

What will happen to the yields on Treasury? Explain

4. The table below shows current and expected future one-year interest rates, as well as current interest rates on n-year bonds

Year One-year Bond Rate N-Year Bond Rate Liquidity premium

1 2% 2% _______

2 3% 3% _______

3 4% 5% _______

4 6% 6% _______

5 7% 8% _______

Assume the expectation theory of the term structure and calculate interest rates in the term structure for maturities of one to five years.

Draw the yield curve for the next four years.

Is the yield curve for the next four years upward sloping or downward sloping? Explain why

What might the yield curve today indicate about future interest rates?

What might the yield curve today indicate about future economic activity? Explain why?

What might the yield curve indicate about the marketsâ prediction for inflation rate in the next four years?

Calculate the liquidity premium for each n-year bond

What does the liquidity premium stay for?

Compare the liquidity premium in 2-year bond and 5-year bond. Why is the liquidity premium on 2-year bond lower than the liquidity premium on 5-year bond?

5. A Suppose that you are the manager of the Bank One. Assume required reserve ratio 10 percent. The bank has the following balance sheet:

Assets Liabilities

Reserves $ 65 million Deposits $ 400 million

Loans $ 425 million Bank capital $ 90 million

Is Bank One meeting the reserve requirement?

By how much can Bank One increase its loans?

Suppose Bank One suffers a deposit outflow of $40 million .Illustrate numerically the effect of the deposit outflow of $40 million on the bankâs deposits and reserves

Does the bank now hold excess reserves?

Is the bank meeting a required reserve ratio of 10 percent?

What action must you take to meet the reserve requirement? List three or more actions. work

If a borrower defaults on a loan of $10 million, will be the bank able to sustain the loss?

Why no, why yes?

If Bank One ROA is 7%, what is the bank profit? What is the bank ROE?

How can you increase the bankâs ROE, what trade âoff do you face?

6. Suppose that you are the manager of the Bank One that has $30 million of fixed assets, $20 million of variable interest rate assets, $15 million of fixed liabilities and $25 million of variable interest rate liabilities.

a. Is the rate sensitivity gap positive or negative? Explain

b. Explain verbally and show numerically what will happen to the bank profits if interest rates rise by 4 percent.

c. What action would you take to reduce the bankâs interest-rate risk? Explain

d. Explain and show numerically what happens to the bank profit if interest rates fall by 4 percent

e. What action would you take to reduce the bankâs interest-rate risk? Explain

f. Given the bank assets and liabilities explain how you can use the interest rate swaps to reduce the bank interest rate risk. Would you trade variable- rate payments for fixed- rate payment? Why yes, why not?

7. Assume the following information about the banking system

Quantities in billions of dollars

Currency (C) = $762

Excess Reserves ( R ) = $66

Required reserves (RR) = $0

Checking deposits (D ) = $604

Give the numerical answer to the following questions:

a. What is the size of the monetary base?

b. What is the money supply in the economy?

c. What is the size of the money multiplier?

Assume that the currency to deposit ratio rises to 1.5

a. Compute the effect of the change in currency ratio on the money multiplier, m

b. What will be the money supply now given the monetary base?

If the Fed wants to keep the money supply at the initial level in part b, how must the Fed respond? Explain

Would the Fed adjust the money multiplier, the monetary base or both to keep the money supply at the initial level?

How much would the Fed buy or sell in the government bonds to keep the money supply at the initial level?

8. Assume that the MB = $828, Money supply = $1366, Currency in the circulation = $ $762, Deposit = $$604, the currency to deposits ratio c is 1.262, the excess reserve ratio is 0.109, the required reserve ratio is 0, and the money multiplier m= 1.650. The non-bank public shifts $40B from currency to deposits, and the Fed wishes to keep the money supply at the level of $1366 B. Explain verbally and show numerically the effect of the currency shift on the following

a. The level of reserves in the banking system

b. The monetary base

c. The size of the money multiplier

d. How should the Fed respond given his goal of keeping the money supply at the level of $1366? Explain

e. How much in the government bonds should the Fed buy or sell to keep the money supply at the level of $1366?

9. Use the graph of the market for reserves to analyze each of the following situations. Be sure that your graph clearly shows changes in the equilibrium federal funds rate, changes in the equilibrium level of reserves, any shifts in the demand and supply curves, and any change in equilibrium federal funds rate

Suppose that the Fed decides to increase the federal funds rate from 2%to 2.25%. Show graphically and explain verbally what policy tools the Fed can use to bring the change in the federal funds rate.

Suppose that the Fed decides to decrease the federal funds rate from 2.25%to 2.%. Show graphically and explain verbally what policy tools the Fed can use to bring the change in the federal funds rate.

Suppose that banks increase their demand for reserve. Show graphically and explain verbally how the Fed can offset this change in order to keep the equilibrium federal funds rate unchanged

Suppose there is a switch from currency into deposits, everything else held constant. Show graphically and explain verbally how the Fed can offset this change in order to keep the equilibrium federal funds rate unchanged

Suppose that the Fed decides to decrease the required reserve ratio. Show graphically and explain verbally how the Fed can offset this change in order to keep the equilibrium federal funds rate unchanged.

f. Suppose that banks decrease their demand for reserves. Show graphically and explain

verbally how the Fed can offset this change in order to keep the equilibrium federal funds

rate unchanged.

Multiple Choice Quiz
PLS EXPLAIN ALL YOUR ANSWERS
1
If a bond's rating improves:
A) It should cause the bond's price and yield to increase, allother factors constant.
B) It should cause the bond's price and yield to decrease, allother factors constant.
C) It should cause the bond's price to increase and its yield todecrease, all other factors constant.
D) None of the above.

2
An investor earning 6% from a tax-exempt bond, who is in a 25% taxbracket, holding risk constant:
A) Would be indifferent to a taxable bond with a 7.5% yield.
B) Would be indifferent to a taxable bond with a 8.0% yield.
C) Would be indifferent to a taxable bond with a 4.5% yield.
D) None of the above.

3
When the yield curve is downward sloping:
A) People are expecting an economic slowdown.
B) Short term yields are lower than long term yields.
C) This is impossible, since the yield curve always slopesupward.
D) People could be expecting a loosening in monetary policy.

4
Assume the Expectation Hypothesis regarding the term structure ofinterest rates. If the current one-year interest rate is 4% and thecurrent two-year interest rate is 6%, then:
A) Investors are expecting the future one-year rate to be 4%.
B) Investors are expecting the future one-year rate to be 8%.
C) Investors are expecting the future one-year rate to be 6%.
D) None of the above.

5
Which of the following statements is(are) true?
A) Conforming mortgages are mortgages for which the borrowers donot meet standards of creditworthiness.
B) Subprime mortgages are often made to individuals with low creditscores or income levels that are relatively low when compared tothe price of the home.
C) Subprime mortgages are never used in mortgage backed securitiesbecause of their riskiness.
D) All of the above.

6
Assume an investor has a choice of 3 consecutive one-year bonds orone 3-year bond. Assuming the Expectations Hypothesis of the termstructure of interest rates:
A) The average interest rate of the three consecutive one-yearbonds should be less than the 3-year bond to reflect the riskpremium.
B) The interest rate of the 3-year bond should equal the averageinterest rate of the 3 one-year bonds.
C) The three consecutive one-year bonds must have the same interestrate.
D) The current one-year interest rate must equal the current 3-yearinterest rate.

7
We would expect the risk spread between Baa bonds and U.S. Treasurysecurities of the same maturities to:
A) Widen during periods of economic recession.
B) To remain relatively constant over the business cycle.
C) To decrease during economic slowdowns.
D) To increase during economic growth periods.

8
Increased borrowing by the U.S. Treasury to finance growing budgetdeficits will:
A) Result in U.S. Treasury yields being higher than high gradecorporate bonds.
B) Result in the price of U.S. Treasury bonds rising.
C) Cause the yield on U.S. Treasury bonds to increase, but still belower than corporate bonds.
D) Result in lower yields on corporate bonds.

9
Imagine a scandal that finds the officers of bond rating agencieshave been taking bribes to inflate the rating of specific bonds.This should:
A) Have no impact on the bond market since bond markets are highlyefficient.
B) Decrease the demand for all bonds.
C) Increase the demand for U.S. Treasury securities and decreasethe demand for corporate bonds.
D) Decrease the risk spread.

10
A proposed increase in the federal income tax rates may actually beviewed favorably by many mayors of cities because:
A) It will allow them to also raise their tax rates.
B) It will cause the demand for Municipal bonds to increase andtheir yields to increase.
C) People will pay less attention to local taxes.
D) It will cause the price of municipal bonds to increase and theiryields to decrease.

11
Bonds rated as "highly speculative":
A) Are rated so because they guarantee high returns for thebuyer.
B) Are commonly referred to as junk bonds.
C) Are ranked just below investment grade by Standard &Poor's.
D) Are rated so because they do not have any default risk.

12
Ratings problems contributed to the financial crisis of 2007-2009because:
A) Ratings agencies sharply downgraded the ratings of MBS ashousing prices declined, reinforcing the decline in the prices ofMBS.
B) MBS issuers consulted ratings agencies to structure MBS to getthe highest ratings, causing a conflict of interest.
C) Ratings agencies were compensated by the issuers of the MBS,causing the incentive for favorable ratings.
D) All of the above.

13
An investor in a 30% marginal tax bracket, earning $10 in interestannually for a $100 U.S. Treasury bond:
A) Earns a 10% after-tax return because interest on U.S. Treasurybonds is tax exempt at the federal level.
B) Earns a 3% return after-tax.
C) Would be indifferent between this bond and a municipal bondoffering $7 annually per $100 of face value, assuming the samedefault risk.
D) Earns a 1% return after-tax.

14
Commercial paper refers to:
A) The financial publications read by the CEO's of publiccorporations.
B) Any debt security with a maturity exceeding one year.
C) Short-term collateralized securities issued only bycorporations.
D) Unsecured short-term debt issued by corporations andgovernments.

15
The addition of the Liquidity Premium Theory to the ExpectationsHypothesis allows us to explain why:
A) Yield curves usually slope upward.
B) Interest rates on bonds of different maturities movetogether.
C) Long-term interest rates are less volatile than short terminterest rates.
D) Yield curves are flat.

FIN 4243 Lecture Notes - Lecture 10: Cash Flow, Yield Curve, Yield Spread

Document Summary

Get access

Related textbook solutions

Introductory Statistics

Related Documents

FIN 4243 Lecture Notes - Lecture 9: Yield Curve, Spot Contract, Yield Spread

FIN 4243 Lecture Notes - Lecture 12: Unsecured Debt, Debenture, United States Treasury Security

FIN 4243 Study Guide - Midterm Guide: Federal Open Market Committee, Interest Rate Risk, United States Treasury Security

Related Questions