ECOL 3505H Lecture Notes - Lecture 15: Metapopulation

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Open population immigration and emigration e = probability of local extinction in a given time scale (ie. per year) Of persistence for 2 years = (1-e)(1-e) = (1-e)2. Prob of local persistence for n years = (1-e)n. If e = 0. 6 and n = 5, plocal = (1-0. 6)5 = 0. 0102. If there"s a 60% chance of extinction in a year, the prob of persistence for 5 years is about 1% Prob of regional persistence = 1 (e)(e) = 1-(e)2. Prob of regional persistence for x patches = 1 (e)x. If e = 0. 6 and x = 10, pregional = 1-(0. 6)10 = 0. 99. If there"s a 60% chance of local extinction in a year, there is a 99% chance of regional persistence for a metapopulation of 10 patches. Probability of regional extinction < prob of local extinction. 0

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