16 Feb 2017

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Number Sense Notes Part 1 and 2

Inference: the process of reasoning from the unknown to the unknown

● Example: a jury considering evidence and inferring about guilt of defendant

● Example: a politician looking at the poll results and deciding whether she has a chance in

the election

Human Inference: an off-hand phrase taken here to mean “inferences we make from statistical

constructs like charts, graphs, numerical summaries”

● Example: The Harry Potter and Deathly Hallows sells 8.3 million in the first 24 hours,

which is more than 50,000 a minute. Our human inference would conclude that the book

is incredibly popular

Decimal Dilemmas

● Data/statements can be completely wrong due to an error of a misplaced decimal

Deceptive Displays

● Graphs can give us a different illusion than what is actually meant to be said

● The human inference could infer something much different

Impact Graphing

● Graphs don’t always show you the increase/decrease...just the steady trend

● Also, the spacing can be off on the axis, making the data steeper or not

Numeracy tip: Pay close attention to who is being quoted and if the numbers are

reasonable/realistic

Tip #2: Rates can be very useful, but can also be deceptive.

● Read all statistical arguments critically

Benchmarks to Know

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