POLSCI 391 Lecture Notes - Lecture 5: Basic Reproduction Number, Pseudoephedrine, Bass Rock
Document Summary
Broadcast model: people hear of an idea or catch a disease or bought a product from a single source. Applies well to products and government programs that are widely advertised over media. Number of people who have heard the idea decreases over time producing an r-shape. Produces an s-shaped curve found in data. Initially few people have the flu (or cell phone) and over time more people start getting and curve slopes upward. Eventually increase becomes approximately linear then everyone has a cell phone and then number of people getting a cell phone decreases. Bass model: combine two models (spread by both broadcast and word of mouth) and include a parameter to capture relevant strength of broadcast and diffusion. Core model in marketing used to predict and explain product sales as a function of advertising (broadcast) and referrals from others who have bought the product (diffusion) Sis model: people stop spreading the idea, disease, or product (cured or recovered)
