POLSCI 160 Lecture 5: Lecture Five Notes (1)
Document Summary
National leaders in crisis bargaining doubt credibility of other"s threats. The credibility of the threat depends on the other side"s perception that the threat will be carried out. Based on past experience, current situation, and what the parties know about one another. Stalin, hitler, and churchill in spring of 1941. Perceptions and reality are related, and perception expresses the actors" understanding of their situation. We can imagine uncertainty as a set of possibilities, only one of which is true. Perceptions can be thought of as probabilities across the set of possibilities. Two types of a: one resolute, one irresolute. The relative chances of the two types of a is b"s perception of a"s resolve. An actor weights the relative chance of each type when it makes a decision. Despite the nazi-soviet pact of 1939, the underlying conflict was not resolved. Starting in 1936, stalin kills all red army members who he suspects are suspicious.
