POLI 1200 Lecture 28: 11-29 week 14
I. Polarized electorate:
a. More polarized electorate should lead to closer races
b. Less polarized: races do not have to be tight--- more people willing to vote for other
party’s candidates
II. The economy
a. Presidents and party shold do well when the economy is good
b. Reverse when the economy is poor.
III. Mood of the country
a. Are people optimistic about the direction of the country?
b. Is it a time for change?
i. Are the people happy with direction?
ii. Public mood matters. Even though partisanship is strong, you might be willing to
flip.
IV. Presidential approval
a. Popular president should be an indicator of positive election for the incumbents party
i. Coattail effect
V. Overall candidate approval
a. Candidates who are more popular will win more
b. Obama seen as very popular and likeable person
VI. 2016 turnout in comparison
a. Reported voting rates: 61.4% vs 61.8% in 2012.
b. Actual: 58% vs 60% (more in 2016)
c. By race
i. White vote when up a little
ii. African American vote took a big dip
iii. Hispanics: about even
iv. Mobilization on clinton camp not good
d. By age
i. Relatively flat number for young.
ii. Other ages similar. But still had higher percentages of turnout
e.
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Document Summary
Polarized electorate: more polarized electorate should lead to closer races, less polarized: races do not have to be tight--- more people willing to vote for other party s candidates. The economy: presidents and party shold do well when the economy is good, reverse when the economy is poor. Is it a time for change: are the people happy with direction, public mood matters. Even though partisanship is strong, you might be willing to. Presidential approval flip: popular president should be an indicator of positive election for the incumbents party, coattail effect. Overall candidate approval: candidates who are more popular will win more, obama seen as very popular and likeable person.