POLI 1200 Lecture 27: 11-27 week 14
22 May 2018
School
Department
Course
Professor
2016 Election
I. Reasons for Trump victory
a. Increase in white voter turnout with decrease in African American turnout.
i. Hard to measure turnout by race. Argued that whites turned out in higher
argi (hoeer i realit, it did’t chage uch. But Africa americans did
turnout lower). Asians and Hispanics turned out more according to this
argument.
b. Obama voters dropping off. Either voting for trump or not voting.
i. 5-7% drop off in union households.
c. Education played a bigger role
i. Trump won voters without college
ii. Clinton won voters with college
d. Was’t a surge of feale oters that oe ight epect
II. Expectations and forecasets
a. Even within political science—many forecasting models predicted Clinton
i. What are some fundamental factors to consider?
1. Third party term election
a. Trend that voters willing to give president a second term, but
not the party for another term.
b.
2. Polarized party parity
3. Economy
4. Mood of the country
5. Presidential approval
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Document Summary
Increase in white voter turnout with decrease in african american turnout: hard to measure turnout by race. Argued that whites turned out in higher (cid:373)argi(cid:374) (ho(cid:449)e(cid:448)er i(cid:374) realit(cid:455), it did(cid:374)"t cha(cid:374)ge (cid:373)uch. Asians and hispanics turned out more according to this argument: obama voters dropping off. Either voting for trump or not voting: 5-7% drop off in union households, education played a bigger role, trump won voters without college, clinton won voters with college. Ii: was(cid:374)"t a surge of fe(cid:373)ale (cid:448)oters that o(cid:374)e (cid:373)ight e(cid:454)pect.
