FNCE 239 Lecture Notes - Lecture 6: Value Investing, Market Risk, Risk Premium

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skywolf653

9 Feb 2016

School

UPenn

Department

Finance

Course

FNCE 239

Professor

N I K O L A I R O U S S A N O V

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Document Summary

Why beta does not accurately represent market risk market. Capm might not be the right model and that there are other risks beyond the. Competition risk (bigger firms can come in and capture almost all of the market), but for this to be a real risk, it has to be a systematic risk. Investors react slowly to discount rate changes o i. e. a firm has been growing, and investors become used to this. When news comes out that the firm is not growing as fast as they initially thought, investors may be slow to react to this news. Glamor effect- some stocks are popular and you tend to overvalue them. Second order effect- investors are often slow to react to things that are not directly effecting a particular firm but effecting it in some sort of indirect way.

Related Questions

Sabrina Gupta, an investment advisor with a major brokerage firm, was examining Wal-Mart Stores, Inc. (Wal-Mart) stock and its valuation. Gupta wondered whether to recommend the stock to any of her new clients or to existing clients who did not currently have Wal-Mart in their portfolios.

Her key task was to use an intrinsic value approach to price the shares and to then compare the resulting price with the price at which the stock was traded in the market. Gupta wanted to use alternative valuation methods and assumptions to produce intrinsic value estimates for Wal-Mart stock.

She was interested in seeing if the alternative methods would point to a consensus regarding the valuation of the stock and to see if the valuations suggested an investment opportunity given the current market price. Methods she contemplated to use were:

Multi-stage growth model

Price Earnings Multiple

Most valuation methods Gupta considered required a common set of inputs:

Future Cash Flows to Wal-Mart Investors

Growth rate of future cash flows

Discount factor or required rate of return by Wal-Mart investors

Gupta gathered data to determine each of the above.

Gupta thought that Dividends to Wal-Mart shareholders would adequately capture the cash flows to Wal-Mart shareholders; she also thought that this approach would simplify her task and she would revisit more complex valuation models if she felt the need.

Gupta thought that CAPM would provide her a relatively reliable estimate of the required rate of return. CAPM based required rate of return can be estimated by using a risk free rate, systematic risk of the firm and equity market risk premium. Gupta thought that in a valuation exercise that involve long term cash flows, 10-year government bond yield would be an appropriate risk free rate of return estimate. She checked the 10 year note rate and found out that it was about 3.68%. Gupta searched for Wal-Mart beta in Bloomberg. Bloomberg estimates betas by regressing the S&P 500 returns on the firm returns over the past two years and arrives at a ârawâ beta estimate. Bloomberg makes an adjustment in raw beta based on some academic research. Gupta is confident that Bloomberg adjustment is justified and she uses Wal-Mart beta estimate of 0.66 in her analysis.

While Gupta is aware of the importance of EMRP assumption, she thinks that Bloombergâs historical estimate of 5.05% is a safe assumption. She is aware of the fact that some studies suggest a larger risk premium of approximately six per cent, while others suggest a much lower forward-looking premium of less than four per cent. She is mindful of the arbitrariness of her assumption, and she takes a note to revisit this issue if her valuations produce unreasonable estimates.

Anticipated dividend growth (g) is often estimated in a variety of ways.

First, observed historical dividend growth can be assumed to continue in a perpetual fashion.

Second, future dividend growth can be estimated on the basis of recent estimates of analysts.

Gupta noted that the consensus annual Wal-Mart dividend for fiscal year 2011 was $1.21, and one respected analyst had estimated the expected constant dividend growth (in perpetuity) at approximately 3%.

As the chart suggests, both earnings and dividend growth rates are declining but they seem to be higher than the ârespected analystâsâ estimates. Gupta decides to use several alternative perpetual growth assumptions to see the impact on price. Since Gupta decided to use variants of dividend discount model (DDM), she checked the anticipated earnings for 2011. Analystâs estimates suggested $4.10 earnings per share. Gupta decided to use 10% growth rate from 2011 to 2012 and assumed a steady decline to 3% in 13 years (until 2024) where the perpetual growth rate of 3% resumes. She also assumed that WalMart will increase its dividend payout ratio from 30% to 55% from years 2012 to 2024. You are asked to reproduce Guptaâs analysis of multi-stage growth model and double check her valuation by using an earnings multiple. You have all the data you need to conduct the multi stage discounted growth model analysis, but you will need to do some research about the multiples valuation.

indigoox363

QUESTION 1

In the lease versus buy decision, leasing is often preferable

	A.	because the lessee owns the property at the end of the least term.
	B.	because lease obligations do not affect the firm's risk as seen by investors.
	C.	because, generally, no down payment is required, and there are no indirect interest costs.
	D.	because it has no effect on the firm's ability to borrow to make other investments.
	E.	because the lessee may have greater flexibility in abandoning the project in which the leased property is used than if the lessee bought and owned the asset.

2 points

QUESTION 2

The tighter the probability distribution of its expected future returns, the greater the risk of a given investment as measured by its standard deviation.

True

False

2 points

QUESTION 3

Ratio analysis involves analyzing financial statements in order to appraise a firm's financial position and strength.

True

False

2 points

QUESTION 4

Which of the following statements is CORRECT?

	A.	If the returns on two stocks are perfectly positively correlated (i.e., the correlation coefficient is +1.0) and these stocks have identical standard deviations, an equally weighted portfolio of the two stocks will have a standard deviation that is less than that of the individual stocks.
	B.	If a stock has a negative beta, its expected return must be negative.
	C.	A portfolio with a large number of randomly selected stocks would have less market risk than a single stock that has a beta of 0.5.
	D.	According to the CAPM, stocks with higher standard deviations of returns must also have higher expected returns.
	E.	A portfolio with a large number of randomly selected stocks would have more market risk than a single stock that has a beta of 0.5, assuming that the stock's beta was correctly calculated and is stable.

2 points

QUESTION 5

Many leases written today combine the features of operating and financial leases. Such leases are often called "combination leases."

True

False

2 points

QUESTION 6

The owner of a convertible bond owns, in effect, both a bond and a call option.

True

False

2 points

QUESTION 7

If a firm raises capital by selling new bonds, it is called the "issuing firm," and the coupon rate is generally set equal to the required rate on bonds of equal risk.

True

False

2 points

QUESTION 8

Which of the following statements is most CORRECT?

	A.	Warrants can sometimes be detached and traded separately from the debt with which they were issued, but this is unusual.
	B.	One important difference between warrants and convertibles is that convertibles bring in additional funds when they are converted, but exercising warrants does not bring in any additional funds.
	C.	The coupon rate on convertible debt is normally set below the coupon rate that would be set on otherwise similar straight debt even though investing in convertibles is more risky than investing in straight debt.
	D.	Warrants have an option feature but convertibles do not.
	E.	The value of a warrant to buy a safe, stable stock should exceed the value of a warrant to buy a risky, volatile stock, other things held constant.

2 points

QUESTION 9

Because of improvements in forecasting techniques, estimating the cash flows associated with a project has become the easiest step in the capital budgeting process.

True

False

2 points

QUESTION 10

The form of organization for a business is not an important issue, as this decision has very little effect on the income and wealth of the firm's owners.

True

False

2 points

QUESTION 11

Two important issues in corporate governance are (1) the rules that cover the board's ability to fire the CEO and (2) the rules that cover the CEO's ability to remove members of the board.

True

False

2 points

QUESTION 12

The "preferred" feature of preferred stock means that it normally will provide a higher expected return than will common stock.

True

False

2 points

QUESTION 13

If an investment project would make use of land which the firm currently owns, the project should be charged with the opportunity cost of the land.

True

False

2 points

QUESTION 14

Operating leases help to shift the risk of obsolescence from the user to the lessor.

True

False

2 points

QUESTION 15

Starting to invest early for retirement increases the benefits of compound interest.

True

False

2 points

QUESTION 16

Market risk refers to the tendency of a stock to move with the general stock market. A stock with above-average market risk will tend to be more volatile than an average stock, and its beta will be greater than 1.0.

True

False

2 points

QUESTION 17

Other things held constant, an increase in the cost of capital will result in a decrease in a project's IRR.

True

False

2 points

QUESTION 18

An option is a contract that gives its holder the right to buy or sell an asset at a predetermined price within a specified period of time.

True

False

2 points

QUESTION 19

The optimal distribution policy strikes that balance between current dividends and capital gains that maximizes the firm's stock price.

True

False

2 points

QUESTION 20

If the current price of a stock is below the strike price, then an option to buy the stock is worthless and will have a zero value.

True

False

2 points

QUESTION 21

The desire for floating-rate bonds, and consequently their increased usage, arose out of the experience of the early 1980s, when inflation pushed interest rates up to very high levels and thus caused sharp declines in the prices of outstanding bonds.

True

False

2 points

QUESTION 22

Taylor Inc. estimates that its average-risk projects have a WACC of 10%, its below-average risk projects have a WACC of 8%, and its above-average risk projects have a WACC of 12%. Which of the following projects (A, B, and C) should the company accept?

	A.	Project C, which is of above-average risk and has a return of 11%.
	B.	Project A, which is of average risk and has a return of 9%.
	C.	None of the projects should be accepted.
	D.	All of the projects should be accepted.
	E.	Project B, which is of below-average risk and has a return of 8.5%.

2 points

QUESTION 23

To finance the construction of a new plant, Pietersen Corporation must raise an additional $10,000,000 of equity capital through the sale of common stock. The firm currently has an EPS of $5.40 and a P/E ratio of 10, with 1,200,000 shares outstanding. If the firm wants its ex-rights price to be $50, what subscription price must it set on the new shares?

	A.	$39.28
	B.	$50.00
	C.	$29.55
	D.	$41.80
	E.	$33.78

2 points

QUESTION 24

Which of the following statements is CORRECT, assuming positive interest rates and holding other things constant?

	A.	A 30-year, $150,000 amortized mortgage will have larger monthly payments than an otherwise similar 20-year mortgage.
	B.	A bank loan's nominal interest rate will always be equal to or less than its effective annual rate.
	C.	The present value of a 5-year, $250 annuity due will be lower than the PV of a similar ordinary annuity.
	D.	If an investment pays 10% interest, compounded annually, its effective annual rate will be less than 10%.
	E.	Banks A and B offer the same nominal annual rate of interest, but A pays interest quarterly and B pays semiannually. Deposits in Bank B will provide the higher future value if you leave your funds on deposit.

2 points

QUESTION 25

Which of the following statements is CORRECT?

	A.	In the statement of cash flows, a decrease in inventories is reported as a use of cash.
	B.	In the statement of cash flows, a decrease in accounts receivable is reported as a use of cash.
	C.	In the statement of cash flows, depreciation charges are reported as a use of cash.
	D.	In the statement of cash flows, a decrease in accounts payable is reported as a use of cash.
	E.	Dividends do not show up in the statement of cash flows because dividends are considered to be a financing activity, not an operating activity.

2 points

QUESTION 26

The term "additional funds needed (AFN)" is generally defined as follows:

	A.	A forecasting approach in which the forecasted percentage of sales for each balance sheet account is held constant.
	B.	Funds that are obtained automatically from routine business transactions.
	C.	Funds that a firm must raise externally from non-spontaneous sources, i.e., by borrowing or by selling new stock to support operations.
	D.	The amount of internally generated cash in a given year minus the amount of cash needed to acquire the new assets needed to support growth.
	E.	The amount of assets required per dollar of sales.

2 points

QUESTION 27

The cash flows associated with common stock are more difficult to estimate than those related to bonds because stock has a residual claim against the company versus a contractual obligation for a bond.

True

False

2 points

QUESTION 28

Which of the following statements is CORRECT?

	A.	The NPV method automatically deals correctly with externalities, even if the externalities are not specifically identified, but the IRR method does not. This is another reason to favor the NPV.
	B.	Identifying an externality can never lead to an increase in the calculated NPV.
	C.	Both the NPV and IRR methods deal correctly with externalities, even if the externalities are not specifically identified. However, the payback method does not.
	D.	An example of an externality is a situation where a bank opens a new office, and that new office causes deposits in the bank's other offices to increase.
	E.	An externality is a situation where a project would have an adverse effect on some other part of the firm's overall operations. If the project would have a favorable effect on other operations, then this is not an externality.

2 points

QUESTION 29

Time lines can be constructed in situations where some of the cash flows occur annually but others occur quarterly.

True

False

2 points

QUESTION 30

A warrant is an option, and as such it cannot be used as a "sweetener."

True

False

2 points

QUESTION 31

BLW Corporation is considering the terms to be set on the options it plans to issue to its executives. Which of the following actions would decrease the value of the options, other things held constant?

	A.	The life of the option is increased, i.e., the time until it expires is lengthened.
	B.	The exercise price of the option is increased.
	C.	The Federal Reserve takes actions that increase the risk-free rate.
	D.	BLW's stock price becomes more risky (higher variance).
	E.	BLW's stock price suddenly increases.

2 points

QUESTION 32

Convertible debentures for Kulik Corporation were issued at their $1,000 par value in 2012. At any time prior to maturity on February 1, 2032, a debenture holder can exchange a bond for 25 shares of common stock. What is the conversion price, Pc?

	A.	$48.62
	B.	$40.00
	C.	$42.00
	D.	$46.31
	E.	$44.10

2 points

QUESTION 33

A stock is expected to pay a dividend of $0.75 at the end of the year. The required rate of return is rs = 10.5%, and the expected constant growth rate is g = 6.4%. What is the stock's current price?

	A.	$18.29
	B.	$17.39
	C.	$19.22
	D.	$18.75
	E.	$17.84

2 points

QUESTION 34

If a firm's goal is to maximize its earnings per share, this is the best way to maximize the price of the common stock and thus shareholders' wealth.

True

False

2 points

QUESTION 35

The common stock of Southern Airlines currently sells for $33, and its 8% convertible debentures (issued at par, or $1,000) sell for $850. Each debenture can be converted into 25 shares of common stock at any time before 2025. What is the conversion value of the bond?

	A.	$783.75
	B.	$744.56
	C.	$825.00
	D.	$866.25
	E.	$707.33

2 points

QUESTION 36

Which of the following statements is CORRECT?

	A.	If interest rates increase, the price of a 10-year coupon bond will decline by a greater percentage than the price of a 10-year zero coupon bond.
	B.	If a bond's yield to maturity exceeds its annual coupon, then the bond will trade at a premium.
	C.	If a coupon bond is selling at par, its current yield equals its yield to maturity.
	D.	If a coupon bond is selling at a premium, its current yield equals its yield to maturity.
	E.	If a coupon bond is selling at a discount, its price will continue to decline until it reaches its par value at maturity.

2 points

QUESTION 37

A proxy is a document giving one party the authority to act for another party, including the power to vote shares of common stock. Proxies can be important tools relating to control of firms.

True

False

2 points

QUESTION 38

Projects S and L are equally risky, mutually exclusive, and have normal cash flows. Project S has an IRR of 15%, while Project L's IRR is 12%. The two projects have the same NPV when the WACC is 7%. Which of the following statements is CORRECT?

	A.	Project S's NPV is more sensitive to changes in WACC than Project L's.
	B.	If the WACC is 13%, Project S will have the lower NPV.
	C.	If the WACC is 6%, Project S will have the higher NPV.
	D.	If the WACC is 10%, both projects will have positive NPVs.
	E.	If the WACC is 10%, both projects will have a negative NPV.

2 points

QUESTION 39

A firm's AFN must come from external sources. Typical sources include short-term bank loans, long-term bonds, preferred stock, and common stock.

True

False

2 points

QUESTION 40

Which of the following could explain why a business might choose to operate as a corporation rather than as a sole proprietorship or a partnership?

	A.	Less of a corporation's income is generally subjected to taxes than would be true if the firm were a partnership.
	B.	Corporate shareholders escape liability for the firm's debts, but this factor may be offset by the tax disadvantages of the corporate form of organization.
	C.	Corporations generally find it relatively difficult to raise large amounts of capital.
	D.	Corporations generally face relatively few regulations.
	E.	Corporate investors are exposed to unlimited liability.

2 points

QUESTION 41

The cost of debt is equal to one minus the marginal tax rate multiplied by the average coupon rate on all outstanding debt.

True

False

2 points

QUESTION 42

Amram Company's current ratio is 1.9. Considered alone, which of the following actions would reduce the company's current ratio?

	A.	Use cash to reduce accruals.
	B.	Borrow using short-term notes payable and use the proceeds to reduce long-term debt.
	C.	Use cash to reduce accounts payable.
	D.	Borrow using short-term notes payable and use the proceeds to reduce accruals.
	E.	Use cash to reduce short-term notes payable.

2 points

QUESTION 43

ESOPs were originally designed to help improve worker productivity, but today they are also used to help prevent hostile takeovers.

True

False

2 points

QUESTION 44

High current and quick ratios always indicate that a firm is managing its liquidity position well.

True

False

2 points

QUESTION 45

A firm should never accept a project if its acceptance would lead to an increase in the firm's cost of capital (its WACC).

True

False

2 points

QUESTION 46

"Capital" is sometimes defined as funds supplied to a firm by investors.

True

False

2 points

QUESTION 47

Heavy use of off-balance sheet lease financing will tend to

	A.	affect a company's cash flows but not its degree of risk.
	B.	make a company appear less risky than it actually is because its stated debt ratio will appear lower.
	C.	make a company appear more risky than it actually is because its stated debt ratio will be increased.
	D.	affect the lessee's cash flows but only due to tax effects.
	E.	have no effect on either cash flows or risk because the cash flows are already reflected in the income statement.

2 points

QUESTION 48

As a firm's sales grow, its current assets also tend to increase. For instance, as sales increase, the firm's inventories generally increase, and purchases of inventories result in more accounts payable. Thus, spontaneous liabilities that reduce AFN arise from transactions brought on by sales increases.

True

False

2 points

QUESTION 49

On the balance sheet, total assets must always equal total liabilities and equity.

True

False

2 points

QUESTION 50

The annual report contains four basic financial statements: the income statement, balance sheet, statement of cash flows, and statement of stockholders' equity.

True

False

Please read the article and answer these THREE questions:

1. Why are conditions currently favorable for firms to issue debt and pay out the proceeds to stockholders?

2. What are dangerous impacts of issuing additional debt mentioned in the article?

3. TransDigm used the proceeds of their debt issue to pay a one-time dividend while Intel used the proceeds to repurchase shares. How does a repurchase differ from a one-time dividend? Why do you think the two firms chose different approaches to distributing cash to shareholders?

___________

"Borrowing for Dividends Raises Worries" at the Wall Street Journal on 10/06/2009

Rock-bottom interest rates and thawed credit markets are emboldening some companies to use bond-sale proceeds to go on the offensive, even if that means rewarding shareholders at the expense of bondholders.

The nascent trend is controversial because corporate borrowers are sinking themselves deeper into debt to pay out special dividends, buy back stock or finance acquisitions. While such moves were all the rage during the credit boom, most corporate-bond offerings during the recession have been used to reduce debt or stockpile cash.

Eric Felder, global head of credit trading at Barclays Capital, says the lure of low rates and companies' stables of cash increases "the risk of non-bondholder friendly events."

Last week's sale of $425 million of bonds by aircraft-parts manufacturer TransDigm Group Inc. is one of the back-to-the-past corporate-bond deals causing concern among some analysts. More than $360 million of the proceeds will be used to pay a special cash dividend to shareholders and management of the Cleveland company.

The added debt increased TransDigm's borrowings to 4.3 times its earnings before interest and taxes, compared with 3.1 times before last week's deal. The expected dividend of $7.50 to $7.70 a share is equal to nearly all of the net income that TransDigm reported since the end of fiscal 2003, according to Moody's Investors Service.

Moody's said the dividend "illustrates the company's aggressive financial policy." Moody's gave the new debt a junk rating of B3, even though the ratings firm said TransDigm's "strong operating performance will enable the company to service the increased debt level."

Sean Maroney, director of investor relations at TransDigm, says the "stability of our business, high profit margins and consistent cash flow" give the company "the ability to support this level of leverage."

Borrowing from bondholders to pay shareholder dividends is "a hallmark of an earlier credit era," Jeffrey Rosenberg, head of credit strategy at Bank of America Merrill Lynch, wrote in a report Friday. Such deals were popular in 2003 and 2004, the last time the Federal Reserve lowered its benchmark interest rate to historically low levels, keeping it at 1% for more than a year.

Companies like Dex Media Inc. DEX -0.18% took on debt to pay dividends to its private-equity owners, including Carlyle Group and Welsh, Carson, Anderson & Stowe, before taking the companies public. Dex Media filed for bankruptcy earlier this year under a mountain of debt.

With the federal-funds rate at 0% for nine months now and confidence returning to the stock and debt markets, investors have been driven to take on more risk. That is flooding the corporate-bond market with cash. Investors poured $43 billion into investment-grade corporate-bond funds in the second quarter and nearly $40 billion in the third quarter -- almost double previous peak quarters, according to Lipper AMG Data Services.

The wave of buying drove down borrowing costs for the average highly rated corporation to about 5%, according to Merrill, a level not seen since 2005. In the heat of the crisis last October, such rates averaged 9%. Through the end of September, more than 1,000 high-rated companies borrowed a record $860 billion, according to Dealogic.

In July, Intel Corp. INTC 0.33% sold $1.75 billion of convertible bonds, planning to use $1.5 billion of the proceeds to buy back shares. A spokesman for Intel declined to comment.

The computer-chip giant has a strong credit rating of single-A, so it doesn't carry a burdensome debt load. Still, the deal raised eyebrows among some analysts and investors, who say floating debt to buy back stock could become more common as companies regain confidence.

And as merger-and-acquisition activity revs up, the cheaper cost of debt compared with equity is tempting companies to use bond sales as a deal-making war chest.

Analysts are watching Kraft Foods Inc. in anticipation that the company would finance its proposed purchase of U.K. chocolate, candy and chewing gum maker Cadbury PLC by raising tons of debt. Last month's unsolicited bid by Kraft was then valued at about $16.7 billion, but it could be weeks before Kraft submits a formal offer.

Three major credit-ratings agencies have warned Kraft that they could slash the company's debt ratings if the company reaches a deal agreement with Cadbury. At the current offering price, Kraft would need to shell out at least $6 billion in cash, much of it likely from the debt markets, according to corporate-bond research firm Gimme Credit.

"Kraft is committed to maintaining an investment-grade rating," a Kraft spokesman said, declining to comment further.

So far in 2009, returns to high-grade bond investors are 19%, according to Merrill. "We've seen a feeding frenzy" because of low interest rates, says Kathleen Gaffney, portfolio manager at Loomis, Sayles & Co. She sold some bonds recently to take profits from the rally. Loomis Sayles wants to have cash on the sidelines in case the Fed raises rates soon or Treasury bonds sell off.

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FNCE 239 Lecture Notes - Lecture 6: Value Investing, Market Risk, Risk Premium

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