PSC 441 Lecture Notes - Lecture 19: Null Hypothesis, Statistical Hypothesis Testing, Design Week

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Kellstedt and whitten ch 1: the scientific study of politics . Political science is about the scientific study of political phenomena. Theory: a tentative conjecture about the causes of some phenomenon of interest. Causal theory: requires thinking in new ways about familiar phenomena. Causal theory: develop a theory that has a causal mechanism. Hypothesis: develop a theory-based statement about the relationship we expect to observe. For every hypothesis, there is a null hypothesis. Null hypothesis: also a theory-based statement, but it is about what we would observe without a causal relationship between the i. v. and the d. v. Process of setting up tests involves both logical reasoning and creative design. Must be hard on one"s theory and open to the idea that no hypothesis is full-proof and that there always may be a possible test that will disprove the results and the hypothesis. Normal science: state of research under an accepted paradigm.

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