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Lecture 23

PSYC 301L Lecture 23: Lecture 23

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Lecture 23 Decisions process of making choices between two alternatives Reasoning process of drawing conclusions Inductive reasoning reasoning based on observations and reaching conclusion from evidence o Basis of scientific investigation o Conclusions are probably not definitely true Can never be completely confident about the correctness of inductive reasoning o Used in everyday life Make predictions about what will happen using what has happened Some types are automatic The strength of an argument is dependent on: o Representativeness, including sample and sample size o Number of observations o Quality of observations Heuristics when people use the past to guide present behavior they often use shortcuts o rules of thumb that will probably provide the correct answer o Availability heuristic events more easily remembered are perceived as being more probable has a lot to do with the media Media coverage, emotional response, etc. o Illusory correlations when correlations appear to exist but actually dont or are weaker than initially thought Stereotypes o Representativeness heuristic people often make judgements based on how well one thing resembles something else Probability of A being a part of B is based on how much the properties of A resemble the properties of B Law of large numbers the larger the sample size, the more representative it will be of the entire population Confirmation bias tendency to selectively look for information that conforms to your hypothesis o Myside bias tendency to generate and evaluate evidence and test hypotheses in a biased way Subjects use base rate if nothing else is available, but will disregard the base rate if they have other information Utility outcomes are desirable because they are in the subjects best interest Utility theory predicts that: o People are rational o People will choose what results in the maximum expected utility if they have all of the relevant information o People will pursue maximum monetary payoff Utility theory is wrong o People find value in things other than money o Many decisions dont maximize the probability of best outcome
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