PSYC 336 Lecture 12: 12.6 - Judgment and Reasoning VI
8 Dec 2020
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Fast-but-accurate judgments are more likely if the role of random chance is conspicuous in a problem. Random chance is prominent people are more likely to realize that the. Evidence they"re considering may just be a fluke or an accident. Not an indication of a reliable pattern. People are more likely to pay attention to the quantity of evidence. A larger set of observations is less vulnerable to chance fluctuations. Nisbett, 1983 participants were asked about someone who evaluated a restaurant based on just one meal. In one condition participants were told that the diner chose his meal by blindly dropping a pencil onto the menu. Participants were appropriately cautious about the diner"s assessment based on just a single meal. The quality of a person"s thinking is shaped by the background knowledge that they bring to a judgment. A person"s quality of thinking is influenced by education. Phone survey about sports opinions in students who were taking statistics.
