UGS 302 Lecture Notes - Lecture 4: Demographic Transition, Epidemiology, Social Inequality
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9/7- W
Data assignment: comp/contrast.. Archival research vs. epidemiologist presentation
Dif types of data
-put back in time, w context, no internet, no privacy, no instant info
Google archival research, describe what I saw & experienced
Window into southern us before ARV when mortality was high
Evolution of HIV
1981- first case
1986- Antiretrovirals
2003- PEPFAR/ UNAIDS & Global fund
2005- Rollout of ARV to less developed countries
Most human history- globe sparsely populated, fertility low, people live to 20ish
8000 bc, 4mil on earth very small amt- died of starvation
1750- 764 mil, more kills us but we have more control , changing ratio
1804- 1 billion,
1927- human populations exploded, mortality rates changed, death was less likely random,
through public health and medicine= gone very far, less vulnerable to once deadly things,
physiologically better
Demographic transition model-
1- HBR & HDR
2- Declining DR and continuing BR
3- Dec BR&DR
4-
Long term shift in health and disease levels, past year main cause of death = mainly infectious
& communicable diseases, babies are most vulnerable & most resilient, when things get better
babies are first to get healthy- death becomes concentrated in old age, becomes concentrated
in the elderly and those with chronic diseases
3 stages of Health & mortality-
1) Age of famine and pestilence
a) Mortality very hugh
b) Death cncentrated among very young
2) Age of recending pandemics- 1300-1800 ish- very western
a) Mortality variable= public health, sanitation, improved nutrition across europe,
getting stronger
3) Age of degenerative and man-made diseases (lung cancer, Type 2 Diabetes)
a) Mortality declines & stabilizes at low level= medical interventions
4) Reemerging/ Emerging Infectious Diseases?
a) Variable mortality & morbidity
b) -Emergence can be explained by two things-
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