EVSC 1450 Lecture Notes - Lecture 11: Climate Sensitivity, Radiative Forcing, Himalayas
31 Aug 2016
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Initial temperature : start with the radiative forcing. Delta t i = 1*k or 1*c (we did this at the beginning of class last time; was the direct effect of 4 w/m2 forcing = doubling co2) Initial 1* warming becomes 1. 6-3. 3 * c warming. Most of the warming we"ll get does not come directly from co2, it comes from the feedbacks. Feedbacks are at the heart of the climate change problem. Defined as amount of warming per unit of radiative forcing. Let"s talk about what the impacts will be of emitting a ton of co2 or a ton of ch4 or a ton of aerosols. With more sophisticated calculation, deltat final = 2-4. 5 * c in response to doubled co2. Plug in 280 ppm, run a model for 1000 years, get temperature. Plug in 560 ppm, run it again, get temperature. Climate sensitivity of earth is 3*c (per rf from doubled co2) For doubled co2, rf = 4 w/m2.
