Psych and the Law
Perceptions of Dangerousness.
A. Using social science to determine future facts
- Predictions of dangerousness
- How accurate are we?
- Kahle and Sales survey
- Asked to estimate accuracy of predictions of dangerousness. All estimate 40-46%
- Believe now that we are more accurate. Because now limit predictions to certain
kinds of behavior.
- Believe now better than chance but still only 60-65%
B. Four possible outcomes of predictive decisions
- True positive- say someone is dangerous and they actually are dangerous. Correct
- True negative—Say person is dangerous and person is not violent/ dangerous.
- False positive- Assume that person is not dangerous/ violent and the pe