PSY 344 Lecture Notes - Lecture 23: Psych

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Perceptions of dangerousness: using social science to determine future facts. Asked to estimate accuracy of predictions of dangerousness. Believe now that we are more accurate. Because now limit predictions to certain kinds of behavior. Believe now better than chance but still only 60-65: four possible outcomes of predictive decisions. True positive- say someone is dangerous and they actually are dangerous. True negative say person is dangerous and person is not violent/ dangerous. False positive- assume that person is not dangerous/ violent and the person is violent/ dangerous. False negative when person is actually violent person, but person making decision is not. False positive= people falsely categorized: decision rules- have to decide at what level comfortable making decision. Cutting scores- decision threshold in which one predicts/ sets that an event will happen. Ex: heat threshold if 65 of lower heater turns on. Where set threshold affects rate of error making. Where cutting score is cut decides ratio of false/ negative positive.

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