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Just prior to a professional baseball spring training session, you are asked to assess the probability that a particular baseball team will win the coming World Series.

 

a. How would you go about making this assessment? In what sense is this assessment subjective?

b. If you knew nothing about baseball, what would be the appropriate probability assessment or distribution?

c. As an avid fan, how would you adjust this naivety assessment? How would your assessment change day by day as the season progressed?

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Darryn D'Souza
Darryn D'SouzaLv10
28 Sep 2019

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