PSYC 1000 Chapter : Module 2.docx

• School: University of Guelph
• Department: Psychology
• Course: PSYC 1000
• Professor: Dan Meegan

Document Summary

Cannot lie solely on intuition and common sense. Hindsight bias, overconfidence and our tendency to perceive patterns in random events often lead us to overestimate our intuition: scientific inquiry help sift reality from illusion. Tendency to believe after learning an outcome that one would have foreseen it. Common sense more easily describes what has happened not what will happen. Humans tend to think we know more than we do. Random sequences often don"t look random: even in random data we often find order, patterns and streaks occur more often than people expect. When flipping a coin although patterns show, one flip gives no clue to the outcome of the next. 1 in 1 billion people occurs 7 times a day 2500 times a year. Be skeptical but not cynical, open minded but not gullible. Humility: an awareness of own vulnerability to error and openness to surprises and new perspectives. What matters is truths revealed in response to questioning.