RMI-2302 Lecture Notes - Lecture 14: Hedge Fund, Arab Spring, Patient Protection And Affordable Care Act
20 Apr 2017
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Internal: royal dutch/shell, aig, external, consultants, aon. Why do we need political risk analysis: 1. international markets more interconnected than ever before, 2. The us is making the world a more volatile place (bush era: 3. Increasingly reliant on energy from political risk states- saudi arabia, iran, Difference between economic and political analysis: 1. Economic analysis- (cid:862)can a parti(cid:272)ular (cid:272)ountry pay its de(cid:271)t? (cid:863: 2. Political analysis- (cid:862)will a parti(cid:272)ular (cid:272)ountry pay its de(cid:271)t? (cid:863) Political risk- unit of measure: stability, two factors, strengthen against shocks, shocks themselves. Internal: demonstrations in egypt = arab spring, transfer of power = cuba, elections, obamacare, external, refugee influx, tsunami, terror campaign. Deutsche bank eurasia group stability index: government, current government strength, rule of law, level of corruption, society, social tension, youth dissatisfaction, health, edu(cid:272)ation, et(cid:272) , security, level of globalization, geostrategic condition, disaster response/emergency, economy. Corporate decisions and political risk: have the score.
