PSYC 2265 Lecture Notes - Lecture 23: Confirmation Bias, Utility, Conjunction Fallacy
22 Apr 2017
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Psyc 2265 lecture 23 notes decision making. Approaches to decision making: error analysis provides a window to the underlying cognitive processes, normative approach, how we ought to think, expected utility theory. Gains and losses are valued based on the current situation, and not based on expected utility of the decision. Predicts that preferences will change based on what we have at the moment. If we expect a gain, we act in a risk aversive manner. If we expect a loss, we act in a risk prone manner. The framing effect: demonstrates that the outcome of a decision can be influenced by two factors, the background context of the choice, the way in which a question is worded (framed) Base rate information is the actual probability of an event. Much research in the 1970s & 1980s seemed to indicate that base rate information in these types of problems were ignored.
