PHL246H1 Chapter Notes - Chapter 3: Odds Ratio, Proposition Bet, Marginal Utility
Document Summary
We noted in the introduction that we live in an uncertain world. But not everything, we believe, is equally uncertain. Some things are more likely than others, or so we think. It is, for example, fortunately much more likely that the temperature tomorrow will be between. 0 and 40 degrees celsius than that it will be between 100 and 150 degrees. Important decisions that we make on a daily basis require some input of such likelihoods, sometimes just qualitative, but for important decisions it is often helpful to use actual number-estimates. National meteorological offices often tell people what the numerical chance of rain is for today or tomorrow: if they are bold, or rash, enough, they may extend their estimates even to the next week. I pointed out in the introduction that a common alternative to probability-speak is odds- speak.
