MGFB10H3 Chapter Notes - Chapter 8: Modern Portfolio Theory, Phenylalanine, Covariance

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9 May 2013

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Ex post returns : past or historical returns. Ex ante returns: future or expected returns. Return on investment consists of two components: income yield and capital gain (or loss) yield. Income yield: the return earned in the form of a periodic cash flow received by investors. Cash flows are interest payments from bonds and dividends from equities. Cf1= the expected cash flows to be received, p0= the purchase price (or beginning market price) Yield to maturity is also an expected return. Capital gain (or loss): the appreciation (or depreciation) in the price of an asset from some starting price, usually the purchase price or the price at the start of the year. Total return= income yield + capital gain (or loss) yield. Paper losses: capital losses that people do not accept as losses until they actually sell and realize them: reinforced by tax rules: capital gains and losses are only taxable on realization.

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Conroy Consulting Corporation (CCC) has been growing at a rate of 14% per year in recent years. This same non-constant growth rate is expected to last for another 2 years (g0,1 = g1,2 = 14%). If D0= $1.70, rs= 9% and gL = 6%, then what is CCC's stock worth today? Round your answer to the nearest cent. Do not round your intermediate computations. $ What is its expected dividend yield at this time? Round the answer to two decimal places. Do not round your intermediate computations. % What is its capital gains yields at this time? Round the answer to two decimal places. Do not round your intermediate computations. % Now assume that CCC's period of supernormal growth is to last another 5 years rather than 2 years (g0,1 = g1,2 = g2,3 = g3,4 = g4,5 = 14%). How would this affect its price, dividend yield, and capital gains yield? I.Due to the longer period of supernormal growth, the value of the stock will be lower for each year. Although the total return will remain the same, the distribution between dividend yield and capital gains yield will differ for the duration of the supernormal growth period. II.Due to the longer period of supernormal growth, the value of the stock will be higher for each year. The total return as well as the distribution between dividend yield and capital gains yield will differ for the duration of the supernormal growth period. III.Due to the longer period of supernormal growth, the value of the stock will be higher for each year. The total return as well as the distribution between dividend yield and capital gains yield will remain the same for the duration of the supernormal growth period. IV.Due to the longer period of supernormal growth, the value of the stock will be lower for each year. The total return as well as the distribution between dividend yield and capital gains yield will differ for the duration of the supernormal growth period. V.Due to the longer period of supernormal growth, the value of the stock will be higher for each year. Although the total return will remain the same, the distribution between dividend yield and capital gains yield will differ for the duration of the supernormal growth period. What will CCC's dividend yield and capital gains yield be once its period of supernormal growth ends? (Hint: These values will be the same regardless of whether you examine the case of 2 or 5 years of supernormal growth, and the calculations are very easy.) Round the answers to two decimal places. Do not round your intermediate computations. Dividend yield % Capital gains yield % Of what interest to investors is the relationship over time between dividend yield and capital gains yield? I.It is of no interest to investors whether they receive dividend income or capital gains income, since both types of income are always taxed at the same rate. II.It is of no interest to investors whether they receive dividend income or capital gains income, since taxes on both types of income must be paid in the current year. III.It is of no interest to investors whether they receive dividend income or capital gains income, since taxes on both types of income can be delayed until the stock is sold. IV.Some investors need cash dividends, while others would prefer growth. Also, investors must pay taxes each year on the dividends received during the year, while taxes on the capital gain can be delayed until the gain is actually realized. V.Some investors need cash dividends, while others would prefer growth. Also, investors must pay taxes each year on the capital gain during the year, while taxes on the dividends can be delayed until the stock is sold.

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Question 5

The coefficient of variation is a better measure of risk than the standard deviation if the expected returns of the securities being compared differ significantly.

True

False

Question 6.

In portfolio analysis, we often use ex post (historical) returns and standard deviations, despite the fact that we are interested in ex ante (future) data.

True

False

Question 7

Typically, debentures have higher interest rates than mortgage bonds primarily because the mortgage bonds are backed by assets while debentures are unsecured.

True

False

Question 8

If two firms have the same current dividend and the same expected growth rate, their stocks must sell at the same current price or else the market will not be in equilibrium.

True

False

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Question 9

Which of the following is the best measure of the wealth of a firm's stockholders?

The firm's Net Income during the past year

Expected Earnings per Share during the coming year

Book Value (or Net Worth) as recorded on the balance sheet

The price of the firm's stock on the open market

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Question 10

Consider the following firms:

	Net Income	Stock Price at	Stock Price at
	this year	Beg of Year	End of Year
Firm A:	$10,000,000	$20	$10
Firm B:	$(10,000,000)	$10	$20

The manager of Firm A is doing a better job than B

The manager of Firm B is doing a better job than A

Neither manager is doing a good job

Both managers are doing a good job

Question 11

A company has the following income statement. What is its net operating profit after taxes (NOPAT)?

Sales $1,000
Costs 700
Depreciation 100
EBIT $ 200
Interest expense 50
EBT $ 150
Taxes (40%) 60
Net income $ 90

Question 12

Carter Corporation has some money to invest, and its treasurer is choosing between City of Chicago municipal bonds and U.S. Treasury bonds. Both have the same maturity, and they are equally risky and liquid. If Treasury bonds yield 6 percent, and Carter's marginal income tax rate is 40 percent, what yield on the Chicago municipal bonds would make Carter's treasurer indifferent between the two?

Question 13

If a firm's current ratio is less than 1.0, it indicates that:

The firm had negative net income for the year

The firm will be unable to pay its shortterm loans which come due this year

Current Assets are less than Current Liabilities

The firm is insolvent

Question 14

A firm which has a relatively large amount of cash and receivables in its current assets accounts and a relatively small amount of current liabilities would be considered:

Question 15

In November 2011 you bought 100 shares of Microsoft stock for $35.375 a share. In November 2013 you sold your stock for $92.5625 a share. What was your average annual rate of return on your Microsoft investment? (disregard dividends and commissions)

Question 16

You deposit $2,000 in a savings account that pays 10 percent interest, compounded annually. How much will your account be worth in 15 years?

Question 17

You can earn 8 percent interest, compounded annually. How much must you deposit today to withdraw $10,000 in 6 years?

Question 18

Calculate the required rate of return for Mercury, Inc., assuming that the real rate of interest is 3 percent, investors expect a 5 percent rate of inflation in the future, and they expect the rate of return on the overall stock market to be 13 percent. Mercury has a beta of 2.0.

Question 19

Which is the best measure of risk for an asset held in isolation? Which is the best measure for an asset held in a diversified portfolio?

Variance; correlation coefficient

Standard deviation; correlation coefficient

Beta; variance

Coefficient of variation; beta

Beta; beta

Question 20

You have three stocks in your portfolio. $10,000 is invested in a stock with a beta of 1.50 and $15,000 is invested in a stock with a beta of 1.00, and $25,000 is invested in a stock with a beta of 0.50. What is the beta of your portfolio?

Question 21

A corporate bond with a $1,000 face value pays a $50 coupon every six months. The bond will mature in ten years, and has a nominal yield to maturity of 9 percent. What is the price of the bond?

Question 22

The Jones Company has decided to undertake a large project. Consequently, there is a need for additional funds. The financial manager plans to issue preferred stock with a perpetual annual dividend of $5 per share and a par value of $30. If the required return on this stock is currently 20 percent, what should be the stock's market value?

Question 23

A share of common stock has just paid a dividend of $2.00. If the expected long-run growth rate for this stock is 15 percent, and if investors require a 19 percent rate of return, what is the price of the stock?

Question 24

A stock is not expected to pay a dividend over the next four years. Five years from now, the company anticipates that it will establish a dividend of $1.00 per share (i.e., D5 = $1.00). Once the dividend is established, the market expects that the dividend will grow at a constant rate of 5 percent per year forever. The risk-free rate is 5 percent, the company's beta is 1.2, and the market risk premium is 5 percent. The required rate of return on the companyâs stock is expected to remain constant. What is the current stock price?

Sabrina Gupta, an investment advisor with a major brokerage firm, was examining Wal-Mart Stores, Inc. (Wal-Mart) stock and its valuation. Gupta wondered whether to recommend the stock to any of her new clients or to existing clients who did not currently have Wal-Mart in their portfolios.

Her key task was to use an intrinsic value approach to price the shares and to then compare the resulting price with the price at which the stock was traded in the market. Gupta wanted to use alternative valuation methods and assumptions to produce intrinsic value estimates for Wal-Mart stock.

She was interested in seeing if the alternative methods would point to a consensus regarding the valuation of the stock and to see if the valuations suggested an investment opportunity given the current market price. Methods she contemplated to use were:

Multi-stage growth model

Price Earnings Multiple

Most valuation methods Gupta considered required a common set of inputs:

Future Cash Flows to Wal-Mart Investors

Growth rate of future cash flows

Discount factor or required rate of return by Wal-Mart investors

Gupta gathered data to determine each of the above.

Gupta thought that Dividends to Wal-Mart shareholders would adequately capture the cash flows to Wal-Mart shareholders; she also thought that this approach would simplify her task and she would revisit more complex valuation models if she felt the need.

Gupta thought that CAPM would provide her a relatively reliable estimate of the required rate of return. CAPM based required rate of return can be estimated by using a risk free rate, systematic risk of the firm and equity market risk premium. Gupta thought that in a valuation exercise that involve long term cash flows, 10-year government bond yield would be an appropriate risk free rate of return estimate. She checked the 10 year note rate and found out that it was about 3.68%. Gupta searched for Wal-Mart beta in Bloomberg. Bloomberg estimates betas by regressing the S&P 500 returns on the firm returns over the past two years and arrives at a ârawâ beta estimate. Bloomberg makes an adjustment in raw beta based on some academic research. Gupta is confident that Bloomberg adjustment is justified and she uses Wal-Mart beta estimate of 0.66 in her analysis.

While Gupta is aware of the importance of EMRP assumption, she thinks that Bloombergâs historical estimate of 5.05% is a safe assumption. She is aware of the fact that some studies suggest a larger risk premium of approximately six per cent, while others suggest a much lower forward-looking premium of less than four per cent. She is mindful of the arbitrariness of her assumption, and she takes a note to revisit this issue if her valuations produce unreasonable estimates.

Anticipated dividend growth (g) is often estimated in a variety of ways.

First, observed historical dividend growth can be assumed to continue in a perpetual fashion.

Second, future dividend growth can be estimated on the basis of recent estimates of analysts.

Gupta noted that the consensus annual Wal-Mart dividend for fiscal year 2011 was $1.21, and one respected analyst had estimated the expected constant dividend growth (in perpetuity) at approximately 3%.

As the chart suggests, both earnings and dividend growth rates are declining but they seem to be higher than the ârespected analystâsâ estimates. Gupta decides to use several alternative perpetual growth assumptions to see the impact on price. Since Gupta decided to use variants of dividend discount model (DDM), she checked the anticipated earnings for 2011. Analystâs estimates suggested $4.10 earnings per share. Gupta decided to use 10% growth rate from 2011 to 2012 and assumed a steady decline to 3% in 13 years (until 2024) where the perpetual growth rate of 3% resumes. She also assumed that WalMart will increase its dividend payout ratio from 30% to 55% from years 2012 to 2024. You are asked to reproduce Guptaâs analysis of multi-stage growth model and double check her valuation by using an earnings multiple. You have all the data you need to conduct the multi stage discounted growth model analysis, but you will need to do some research about the multiples valuation.

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MGFB10H3 Chapter Notes - Chapter 8: Modern Portfolio Theory, Phenylalanine, Covariance

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