Management and Organizational Studies 3330A/B Chapter Notes -Delphi Method, Level Of Measurement, Toothpaste

• School: Western University
• Department: Management and Organizational Studies
• Course: Management and Organizational Studies 3330A/B
• Professor: May Tajima

Document Summary

Forecasting: a method for translating past experience and present events into predictions of the future: strategic: future products and markets, planning: product demand. Forecasting horizon: long range longer than 2 years for strategy, mid range weekly/monthly for up to 2 years for planning, short range hourly/daily for up to several months for scheduling. Based on opinions or judgment of knowledgeable persons. Delphi method: to develop a consensus among experts. Based on numerical data and mathematical models. Causal methods: based on a known or perceived relationship between the factors linear regression. Do not have to rely on few individuals. Time series forecasting methods: based on statistical analysis of historical data, time series: a set of observed values measured over successive time periods, assumptions: Past demand is a predictor of future demand. Record of past demand is available: behavior: Average stable over time (e. g. toothpaste) Trend general increase or decrease in average demand.