Psychology 2800E Chapter : Stanovich Ch 11.docx
Document Summary
In short, people tend to see their expected correlation even in random events. Illusion of control: the tendency to believe that personal skill can affect outcomes determined by chance. People"s mistakes belief that their behaviour determines random events. Just-world hypothesis: the fact that people tend to believe that they live in a just world; people tend to derogate the victims of chance misfortune. The tendency to seek explanations for chance events contributes to this phenomenon. Before accepting a complicated explanation of an event, consider what part chance may have played in its occurrence. We are egocentric when evaluating coincidences: people find coincidences that happen to themselves more surprising than equally unlikely coincidences that happened to other people. People think coincidences have meaning, they don"t. People think they"re super rare, when probability guarantees they will happen. Actuarial prediction: predictions of group trends based on probabilities derived from statistical records.