MGEB31H3 Study Guide - Final Guide: Internal And External Angles, Hypotenuse, Guy-Wire
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Let me introduce you to Arlene, Boyd, Charlie, and Danielle. They signed up for a course in managerial economics and they have decided to offer you advice on the right answers to questions. This will work as follows:
First, I give you a question or scenario where you have to decide on an answer. You read it.
Second, take a look at the four answers given by our four intrepid students. Each will offer analysis of the question or scenario.
Third, decide which analyst you think has given the best answer. Choose that answer as your own!
The best answer will get full points. Usually, other answers may receive partial credit, though not all of them!
With that in mind, here is your first scenario!
The Japanese Navy in World War II needed to send reinforcements from Rabaul to Lae. They had a choice. They could sail their troop ships around the island of New Britain on the north side, through the Bismarck Sea, or they could sail on the south side through the Solomon Sea. The American forces know this as well, and must decide whether to deploy scouts to the north (Bismarck Sea) or the south (Solomon Sea). The sailing takes three days either way, but there is rain on the north side of the island, so it would take a day for the Americans to find the fleet.
If the Americans scout north and Japan sails north, the Americans will spend a day finding the Japanese and will get two days of bombing. If the Americans scout south and the Japanese sail north, the Americans will lose a day and only get one day of bombing. The weather is clearer on the south. If the Japanese sail south and the Americans scout north, the Americans get two days of bombing since they lose a day. If the Americans scout south, however, they will get three days of bombing. What should the Japanese commander do? How about the American? Briefly explain.
Each of our analysts offers you an answer. Choose the one you think is best.
Question 3 options:
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1. You are given only three quarterly seasonal indices and quarterly seasonally adjusted data for the entire year. What is the raw data value for Q4? Raw data is not adjusted for seasonality.
Quarter Seasonal Index Seasonally Adjusted Data
Q1 .80 295
Q2 .85 299
Q3 1.15 270
Q4 --- 271
2. One model of exponential smoothing will provide almost the same forecast as a liner trend method. What are linear trend intercept and slope counterparts for exponential smoothing?
A. Alpha and Delta
B. Delta and Gamma
C. Alpha and Gamma
D. Standard Deviation and Mean
3. When performing correlation analysis what is the null hypothesis? What measure in Minitab is used to test it and to be 95% confident in the significance of correlation coefficient.
A. Ho: r = .05 p < .5
B. Ho: r = 0 p >.05
C. Ho: r ? 0 p?.05
D. Ho: r = 0 p?.05
In decomposition what does the cycle factor (CF) of .80 represent for a monthly forecast estimate of a Y variable? |
A. The estimated value is 80% of the average monthly seasonal estimate.
B. The estimate is .80 of the forecasted Y trend value.
C. The estimated value is .80 of the historical average CMA values.
D. The estimated value has 20% more variation than the average historical Y data values.
5. A Wendy's franchise owner notes that the sales per store has fallen below the stated national Wendy's outlet average of $1,368,000. He asserts a change has occurred that reduced the fast food eating habits of Americans. What is his hypothesis (H1) and what type of test for significance must be applied? |
A. H1: u ? $1,368,000 A one-tailed t-test to the left.
B. H1: u = $1,368,000 A two-tailed t-test.
C. H1: u < $1,368,000 A one-tailed t-test to the left.
D. H1: p < $1,368,000 A one-tailed test to the right
A. The rejection region and the t-table value generally gets smaller for sample size below 31. |
A. Yes. The data are significantly correlated through the 12th lag. C. No. Only the 12 lag period is not correlated. D. You cannot tell since the number of sample observations is not provided. E. The p-value is above .05 so the data is correlated. |
A. Type 2 error |
A. Yes. They move in the same direction as statistical significance. |
A. The weight cannot be calculated since the data observation is not given. |
A. Yes. The correlation coefficient is .873 that is greater than .05. |
A. Yes, since the residuals randomly vary in magnitude. |
A. -101.0 |
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