MGMD02H3 Final: MGTC20 Final.docx
12 Apr 2012
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Document Summary
Shortcuts can yield very close approximation to the optimal answers, but can also lead to predictable biases & inconsistencies. Will focus on 2 related issues: process by which decision makers reach their conclusions, the biases that can result as a consequence of these processes. Advantages- reduce time/effort required to make reasonably good judgments/decisions. Disadvantage may lead to systematic biases. Textbook example linda is concerned w/ issues of discrimination & social justice: alternatives: 1. Conjunction fallacy - conjunction/co-occurrence of 2 events cannot be more likely than the prob of either event alone. Tversky & kahneman concluded as the amt of detail in the scenario increases, its prob can only decrease steadily, but it representativeness & hence it"s apparent likelihood increase. The reliance on representativeness is a primary reason for the unwarranted appeal of detailed scenarios & the illusionary sense of insight that constructions provide. Spec scenarios appear more likely b/c they are more representative of how we imagine particular events.
