SOC246H1 Lecture Notes - Unix System Iii, Population Ageing, Demographic Transition
Document Summary
Fall 2012, class 4: global variation in population aging. Classic idea: shift from high fertility/high mortality to low fertility/low mortality. In western europe and north america, demographers initially predicted that the trend would be quite manageable they foresaw a gradual and nearly concurrent decrease in both mortality and fertility. Many people expected that the proportion of people 65+ would not exceed 20%. Events didn"t go entirely as anticipated in the western world: fertility rates fall below replacement level, life expectancy increases, populations still often change in a post-transition phase, populations are not uniform. Outside of the developed west, the course of events was even less predictable. Key point: the pace of population aging varies significantly between developed western nations and the developing world. Years required for population aged 65+ to double from 7% to 14% of total population2. 1 data incorporated from sarah harper, ageing societies, 2006, london: hodder education, pg.
