STAT-2126EL Study Guide - Final Guide: Monty Hall Problem, False Positives And False Negatives, Mammography
14 Dec 2018
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Document Summary
Everyone in this room holds at least one irrational belief. A belief that goes against societal norm. Some of these belef have a significant effect on your behaviour. We are lousy at doing probability estimates. We are predisposed to make cause and effect relationships even when none exist. We have a built ability to be stubborn. We are hardwired to be tricked by stimuli. Three boxes - one contains a cheque for and two contain nothing. I, as the host,know which box contains the prize. I show one of the boxes you have not chosen is empty and whisk it away. If you switch your probability of is 66. 6% If she has cancer 75% chance test results will come back positive. Odds of having breast cancer in your 40"s is 1. 4% Women in her 40s gets a mammogram. Out of 1000, 14 have cancer and 10. 5 of them will come back positive.
