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Political Studies
POLS 332
Philippe Roseberry

1. New social contracts in CEE v. re-negotiated social contracts in South America  Definition: formal and informal agreement between ruled and rulers over the general rules of political, legal, economic and social interaction; mental contract with the state  Significance: no social contract in Stalin‘s Soviet Union; informal and semi-formal expectations- people expected to get jobs in the new social contract after shock therapy, they wanted the freedoms of the new regime but without losing the social benefits of the past o In CEE, social contracts were built from scratch (new states created, i.e. Croatia) whereas social contracts in South America (Third Wave) were modifications of the past (Catholic Church was largely untouched after the transition, had the same powers as before) o Three Fundamental Dimensions: democratization, adoption of capitalism, ―return to Europe‖ (change in international relations) 2. Transition and consolidation  Definition: Transition, a process of significant institutional change from one regime setting to an uncertain something else, generally seen as starting with a split in the ruling elite and the beginning of liberalization and ending after the first competitive election o Transition: start of liberalization (reform, democratic forces enter the debate, authoritarian leaders like Kadar in Hungary are okay with reforms), regime collapse (1992 Albania‘s was the last, communists out of power), first competitive election o Consolidation: a process of reinforcement and stabilization of new institutions and social practices within and outside those institutions, generally starts with first competitive elections, the end is less well-defined (process not as linear as transition‘s, many competitive elections), not restricted to democracies  Significance: Russia moved from consolidated communism to Yeltsin‘s attempt of consolidated totalitarianism (strong presidential powers)- consolidation not a change necessarily in the democratic direction, just more stable; o Necessary conditions: free & lively civil society, autonomous political society, subjection of all major political actors to the rule of law (except the regime), usable state bureaucracy, institutionalization of economic society (contracts upheld, bankruptcy rules)  Quote/Author Reference: Juan Linz and Alfred Stepan, 1996- ―democracy is consolidated when it becomes the only game in town‖ 3. Definitions of democracy  Definition: Schumpeter‘s Classic Procedural Definition of Democracy: regular, free, and fair elections, political and civil rights, rule of law/ ―democratic method as that institutional arrangement for arriving at political decisions in which individuals acquire the power to decide by means of competitive struggle for people‘s vote‖  O‘Donnell‘s Substantive Definition of Democracy- democratic and pluralist functioning of institutions, social rights (often washed away in transition, not in Latin America), meaningful, inclusive citizenship (divided between Croatians and Serbs in Croatia), effective rights and representation for minorities (sexual rights, Romas), environmental rights; Fish‘s characterization of cases depends upon the criteria for classification as well as the comparative referent  Significance: significant as some countries are illiberal democracies, where just procedural aspects of democracy are practiced  Quote/Author Reference: Steven Fish: ―choice of definitions and conceptions, whether or not made explicit, shapes characterization of real cases‖; Fish embraces Schumpeter‘s definition, but uses ideas of openness/closure as the metric to assess regime type (doesn‘t see ‗democracy‘ and ‗authoritarian‘ as opposite descriptors as they are on different conceptual planes 4. Democratization (institutional and non-institutional aspects)  Definition: multi-party elections, political and legal rights, functioning democratic institutions, rule of law; institutional and societal change occurred in 1989-1992 with the adaptation of a new constitution (defined powers, their scope, rights, the political community); defining the type of government as presidential, 1 parliamentary, semi-presidential, federal/unitary/decentralized and adopting an electoral system (PR, SMP, hybrid), building codes of law (constitution as a critical juncture to the trends that carry on  Significance: significant as how countries democratized greatly affected political trends in the future, such as the system and type of government they chose. Example- Poland adopted a semi-presidential regime which gave strong powers to parliament and the president, without giving defined terms, the Solidarity Movement broke into two parts, Walesa and Milosevic were very contradictory as PM and President. Due to Communist legacies, little tradition of parliamentary work, party organization and discipline- lack of legislative expertise, had to build parliamentary practices from scratch  Quote/Author Reference: In Fish reading- Dahl, by emphasizing citizenship- meaning the franchise and the rights needed to make it meaningful- casts democracy as a relationship between the rulers and the ruled. The definition specifies the procedural conditions 5. Explaining regime outcome in the 1991-1996 v. 1996 onwards period  Definition: First Phase Constraints (legacies of communism and pre-communist legacies- do leaders stay in power/ Czech Republic advanced economically from the 1930s/ former YU was the most open), Contingencies of Collapse and Transition (war, violence, external shocks, Chernobyl, Wall falling, international interventions), Choices of Significant Agents of Change (Gorbachev didn‘t use violence, Milosevic did) o Second Phase communist legacies and initial political projects become less important with time- factors include: dispersed opposition comes together as authoritarian/nationalist projects runs its course, direct international influences (EU conditionality/news media/youth opposition movements)  Significance: Slovakia re-democratizes in October 1998 with EU conditionality; Croatia and Serbia free themselves from authoritarian rule in 2000 (Tuchman dies in Croatia), 2004 Orange Revolution in Ukraine, 2003 Roses Revolution in Georgia  Quote/Author Reference: Bunce looks at new (Ukraine, Croatia, Slovenia- successful) and old countries (Poland, Hungary, GDP- all have traditions of independent statehood); If you transition before having an old, experienced statehood, the state will be weak, unclear on their borders, and disorganized, legacies of communist explains things- new countries had strong, organized oppositions; but Romania and Bulgaria are old states and their transition has been difficult because of the constraints of communist, which destroyed pre-existing traditions- the Communists stayed in power and dictated the transition; must build state then democratize 6. Creating a market economy in CEE (what it entails + compared with previous transitions elsewhere in the world)  Definition: Latin America was capitalist, so CEE‘s transition was much different- they had pre-existing free markets (demand and production were determined by the market), stock exchanges, had strong state presences but also some room for private capital, entrenched capitalist culture; CEE was unfamiliar with market mechanisms, no cultural familiarity with market-based exchanges no working legal code, complete directional and functional shift of external trade  Significance: Breadth and rate of change variable across regions/countries  Quote/Author Reference: Wolchik and Curry: ―it was fast, unexpected, and unplanned‖ (on the end of communist rule); had to redirect trade patterns, devise redistribution policies to restore property confiscated by the state to its rightful owners, requirements of international financial institutions and economic consequences of the dramatic drop in production that accompanied the shift to the market; Sharon Fisher: ―Unlike the transitions in Latin America and elsewhere in the world, there was no real market economy on which to build, so the old state economy had to be dismantled as a market economy was developed. Thus, reforms happened in a rather haphazard way, and most knowledge of the transition process was formed after the fact‖ 7. “Shock therapy” v. gradualism  Definition: profound reforms all at once (window of opportunity) v. Gradualism- slow, interspersed reforms so as to shield the population from the worst social consequences  Significance: No positive outcome when gradualist policies were consistently maintained; either no reform 2 (or corrupt reform) or shock therapy in the CEE; In all post-communist cases, significant recession in the first few years, between 15-70% of GDP decline from 1989-1992 with the first recovery in Poland who reached their 1989 level in 1996 8. Comparing economic outcomes in CEE (lecture+ textbook)  Definition: Look at 2 elements that determine early economic paths- Initial Conditions (communist/pre- existing economic legacies- some capitalism in Poland, Hungary, GDR, CR) and Commitment Level of Early Governments (clean break v. revolution from above, government stability, Bulgaria, Romania, Moldova the communists stayed in power; Nomenklatura- liked the planned economy, stifled themselves)  Significance: The more advanced countries in the region were generally those with close proximity to Western markets (historical relations or ties with the EU), easy for them to attract FDI and turn from trade with the East to the West (Fisher)  Quote/Author Reference: Wolchik and Curry- had to redirect trade patterns, devise redistribution policies to restore property confiscated by the state to its rightful owners, requirements of international financial institutions and economic consequences of the dramatic drop in production that accompanied the shift to the market; Sharon Fisher: most successful economic transitions in the region were those of the eight countries that joined the EU in May 2004 9. The successor states of the Soviet Union  Definition: After the fall of the Berlin Wall, Germany came together, but CS, YU and the Soviet Union came apart- creating, from what had been 8 states, to 29 states, 19 of which are geographically in Europe; 22 from the Soviet Union (Bunce)  Significance: Wolchik and Curry- new elites had to re-create or create democratic political institutions, values, and practices- revise legal systems to make them compatible with democracy  Quote/Author Reference: Fish Reading- Roeder sees the former USSR as now divided into autocracies, oligarchies, exclusive republics, and democracies, which is where Russia is 10. M. Steven Fish's rating of the Russian political regime in 2004-2005 compared to today's (2012-2013) rating of the Russian regime  Definition: Putin‘s reelection as Russia‘s president (second term)- Russia changed from a communist dictatorship to a multiparty democracy in which officials are chosen in regular elections- Fish believes that Russian elections are riddled with too much fraud and coercion to call them free. Russia is a more open polity than the Soviet Union was or than Uzbekistan and Belarus and Vietnam now are, but falsification, coercion, and the arbitrary disqualification of candidates in elections, as well as constriction of communicative interaction and associational life, have prevented democracy from taking hold  Significance: Brings into importance the varying definitions of democracy (see above); questions Russia‘s legality by examining Putin‘s re-election and today‘s constraints on democracy  Quote/Author Reference: Bunce- ―gloomy predictions to the contrary, Russian democracy has lasted‖ but Fish largely disagrees despite having relatively similar conception of democracy; Russia currently ranked ‗Not Free‘ by Freedom House 11. Nation-building in CEE before, during and after Communism  Definition: Nation-building - process of constructing or structuring a national identity using the power of the state. Aims to unify the people within a state so that it remains politically stable  Before: WW2 left a legacy of ethno-national struggle in Eastern Europe and countries were desperately looking for an ideology that was not ethnic because it had killed so many people during the war (ex. Royalists vs. Communists and Ethnic Majority-Minorities) – this is a reason why Communism took hold in the region o USSR and Yugoslavia became composed of highly diverse ethnic/national groups  During communism dictators were keeping these countries together that really should be separated: marked by the ―nationalities question‖ o USSR attempted to build a pan-Soviet identity with no ethnic identity 3 o USSR institutions began to destabilize: Added a layer of opposition to the regime (dissatisfied that their nation was treated differently from others) o Rise of nationalism (examples)  1596 Hungarian Revolution: wanted a national wave towards socialism that was more democratic  Tito-Stalin Split: Tito gave significant recognition to national groups  After fall of Communism, all newly independent states had to embark on nation-building  Nationalism is historically an issue in the post-communist world o Tremendous diversity throughout the region o Created a ―stateness‖ problem: who should rule? And what should the state look like? o Conflicts have spurred as a result:  Ex. Bosnia-Herzegovina (Bosniacs, Serbs, Croats)  Ethnic leaders, in attempt to unify their own majority, utilized nationalist claims  Majority-Minority relations remains a problem (Triangular Relationship between National Minority, Nationalizing State and External Homeland)  Brubaker: The Nationalizing state‘s nation-building could not happen without the problem and opportunity provided by the minority‘s claim (wants recognition/special rights) o The involvement of external homeland depends largely on its own nation-building project o Significant minority relations since 1989 i.e. Serbs in former Yugoslavia (Bosnia-Herzegovina, Kosovo and Croatia) 12. Ethnic group, nation, nationalism - Ethnic group: Similar to nation but does not imply self-consciousness on behalf of group members. No direct claim to the state - Nationalism: ―A political principle according to which the state and the nation should be congruent‖ (Gellner) - Nation-State: A state whose national and institutional borders are co-extensive. Long-standing project for most CEE rulers before, during (to some extent) and after communism - Significance: Nationalism/ethnicity/nation-states have historically been an issue in the post-communist world o In the early twentieth century, many social theorists held that ethnicity and nationalism would decrease in importance and eventually vanish as a result of modernisation, industrialisation and individualism. This never came about.  Scholars also pointed out that it would rarely be a problem but in fact it has led to many wars  Harder to build trust between citizens  In contexts of uncertainty, ethnicity can become divisive o Tremendous identity diversity throughout the region o Raise questions of interpreting nations, nationalism and ethnicity  Are they ethnic groups durable?: Or are they malleable aka easily manipulated by ethnic entrepreneurs  Are nations/ethnic groups man-made or natural?  Primordial vs. Instrumental argument (large debate in political science) 13. “Stateness” Problem in CEE - Definition: A state, which has not resolved the fundamental question of who shall be ruled and by whom (as opposed to how it should be ruled). Defining the political community rather than defining the rules of government, rights and duties. o Generally manifested by border disputes, border instability  e.g. Hungary‘s shrinking (1919)/enlargement (1941)/re-shrinkng (1945) o Also a problem of internal majority/minority inclusion.  Residents vs. Citizens (eg. Palestine‘s in Israel) - Examples of stateness problems in Eastern Europe 4 o After WW1: Eastern Treaties such as Teianon (1919): Hungary loses more than half of it territory, just under half of the population. Romania expands. Empires (Austro-Hungarian, German, Russian) collapse. Yugoslavia is created. o WW2/After WW2: Germans expelled (Volkdeutsch), USSR (Ukraine), Poland, Germany move Westward, Yugoslavia re-created. USSR expands o After 1989: End of socialist federations (YU, CZ, USSR) changes in internal majority-minority relations - Significance: The ―stateness‖ problem significantly affected nationalizing states (seeking to form a cohesive nation-state). o Affects democratization: those post-communist countries that are now considered fully democratic (ex. Poland, Slovenia), have no significant stateness issue as opposed to those countries that are considered ―Challenged States‖ like Bosnia-Herzegovina/Kosovo, where they are deeply divided  Minorities challenging state: don‘t think they should be ―ruled‖ by state 14. Roger Brubaker’s “triadic nexus” (aka “triangular relationship”) - Definition: New configuration of majority-minority relations in post-communist societies. It involves three players as opposed to two: o 1. National minority: different from majority group, seeks recognition, special rights o 2. Nationalizing state: affected by a stateness problem, seeks to form cohesive nation-state, elite-driven, project benefits from the internal challenge of the minority o 3. External homeland: Third-party state building its own nation-state project. Internal use of external minority problem o This has come as a result of:  A mismatch between political (state frontiers) and cultural/national borders  Effect of long-term Eastern European history but also institutional practices by USSR, YU and other states  Some minorities find themselves on the ―wrong‖ side of the border, away from ―their‖ national homeland - Significance: The nationalizing state‘s nation-building project could not happen (or would happen differently) without the problem and opportunity provided by the minority‘s claim. o The external homeland‘s intervention ―securitizes‖ the majority-minority relationship of the host state. o The external homeland‘s involvement is largely determined by its own domestic nation-building project; tt is a dynamic process, not static 15. Main national minorities in CEE 1. Russians in the “near-abroad” (circa 25 million): Significant Russian presence in Central Asia, Ukraine, Belarus, although no problem there. Tensions in the Caucasus, significant problems in the Baltic states (mostly Latvia). 2. Hungarians in former Austro-Hungarian lands (3-4 million): Large but sometimes scattered and non-contiguous Hungarian minority in Romania, large groups in Slovakia, Serbia (Vojvodina), Ukraine. 3. Serbs in former Yugoslavia (2-3 million): Serbian minorities in Bosnia-Herzegovina and Croatia (formerly), Kosovo. 4. Albanians around Albania (2-3 million): Majority in independent Kosovo (minority in Serbia), minority in Macedonia, smaller groups in Greece, Montenegro - Significance: For minority groups, they are involved in a process of carving out an identity space in a country of settlement between the native majority and their co-ethnic native minority 16. Types of national minorities claims - 1. Full independence: Complete break from the existing host state. o Secessionism: Breakaway territory wishes to become a new state: 5 o Ex. Slovenia, Croatia, B-H, Kosovo (from Yugoslavia)  Transnistria (from Moldova)  Chechnya / South Caucasus (from Russia) o Irredentism: Breakaway territory wishes to join its external homeland: Serbs in B-H, Croatia and Northern Kosovo, Armenians in Nagorno-Karabakh. - 2. Sub-state territorial autonomy: Some form of territorial autonomy and control over their own affairs: federalism, regional autonomy, devolution: o Croats in B- H o Serbs in Southern Kosovo o Albanians in Macedonia - 3. Decentralization / cultural autonomy: o Local or regional government (no constitutional protection) o Cultural autonomy: school boards, language rights over certain rights, higher education in minority regions, religious accommodation. o Ex. Hungarians in Slovakia, Romania, Ukraine, Poles in Lithuania  Ex. Russians outside of Russia. - 4. Full citizenship: Same rights as those enjoyed by the majority population. o End of formal (legal / constitutional) or informal discrimination §Racism, police brutality, non- assistance, etc. o Ex. Romas everywhere, Russians in some post-Soviet states, non- white Russians in Russia, Muslims in Serbia. - Significance: States need to decide on the type of national minority rights to adopt and there are a variety of considerations o Depending on the strength/size/mobilization of minority groups their calls for greater protection may prove dangerous 17. Nationalism’s impact on democratization - There is the possibility that nationalism could hurt/help democratization o A. Social Capital:  Ethnic and national divisions inhibit social capital (informal networks, neighborly relations etc.)  Harder to build truth between citizens  Less public involvement/weaker societal participation  In uncertain conditions, ethnicity can become divisive  In homogenous areas there is greater social capital - Weak institutionalization is dangerous for the state of majority-minority relations (Snyder) o Consolidated democracies and consolidated autocracies have no reason to divide their populations o Weak, decaying or new states (such as transitioning states in post-communist Europe) have weak political institutions (media, electoral commission, army, police) o Easy to ―hijack‖ the transition. - Significance: Because of the dangers of weak institutions, institutions should be developed before transition begins o How it played out in the end:  For most minorities, the 1989-1992 was a significant moment of status change. Some majorities became minorities. Privileged minorities lost their status. Equal minorities were downgraded to lower status.  1989-1992 is a critical juncture: New constitutions and policies set the stage for long- term cooperation or conflict.  Minorities whose territorial distribution did not fit pre-existing borders and boundaries were particularly problematic (Serbs, Albanians, Hungarians)  Mixed record on democracy’s impact on the treatment of minorities: Russia not particularly hard on minorities, Central Asia, Ukraine not too hard on Russians.• Czech 6 Republic, Hungary, Poland, Slovenia: quickly consolidated by 1996 and respectful of European guidance on minoritied  but... Hungary, Slovakia, Latvia, Lithuania, and then later Romania and Bulgaria, not too good on upholding minority rights; it remains that... Worst offenders were highly un-democratic:  Ex. Serbia 1989-2000, Croatia 1991-1999, Russia in the Caucasus (Chechen wars 1990s), Moldova / Transnistria (early 1990s). 18. Eastern European territories in the “imperial” period (include name and description of main empires) - The imperial period is also known as the Concert of Europe o Distinct international regime o In CEE, countries were created by fusion, they were part of an empire beforehand - 1. Ottoman (also known as the Turkish Empire) o A vast Turkish sultanate of southwest Asia, northeast Africa, and southeast Europe. It was founded in the 13th century by Osman I and ruled by his descendants until its dissolution after World War o Originally a small state controlled by Ottoman or Osmanli Turks, it spread rapidly, superseding the Byzantine Empire in the east - 2. German (Also called Second Reich) o Unified German monarchy existing from 1871 to 1918. o Created by Bismarck in 1871 after the Franco-Prussian War by the union of twenty-five German states under the Hohenzollern King of Prussia. - 3. Russian o A state that existed from 1721 until the Russian Revolution of 1917 o It was the successor to the Tsardom of Russia and the predecessor of the short-lived Russian Republic, which was in turn succeeded by the Soviet Union. o One of the largest empires in world history, the Russian Empire was surpassed in landmass only by the British and Mongol empires - 4. Austro Hungary o Constitutional monarchic union between the crowns of the Austrian Empire and the Kingdom of Hungary in Central Europe o Operated from 1867 to October 1918 o Austria-Hungary was a multinational realm and one of the world's great powers at the time. o Second largest geographically after the Russian Empire o Countries that formerly belong to this realm are: Austria, Hungary, Slovenia, Bosnia and Herzegovina, Croatia, the Czech Republic, Slovakia, large parts of Serbia and Romania, and smaller parts of Italy, Montenegro, Poland and Ukraine. o These states seen as being more ―forward‖ than the Ottoman - Significance: The disintegration of these empires represents an example of a ―stateness‖ problem o Hungary ended up losing half of its territory (which represents just under half of the population) o Romania expands o Yugoslavia is created o ―Post-Communist Europe is really ―successor states‖ that were carved out of the wreckage of these four empires 19. International regime change in CEE history - Definition: System of regular and frequent social, economic and political interactions, involving authoritative interactions such as rules and norms, formal and informal, between peripheral and central units of a region or world - History: o 1. 1870s to 1918  1871: German unification 7  Become an important region in the country – major investor and political reform, what goes on there affects the region, Russia‘s historical foe and collaborator  1978: Congress of Berlin, remakes the borders  1918: end of WW1).  Imperial period, the ―Concert of Europe‖  There were four major empires in this historical period (Ottoman, German, Russian, Austro-Hungary) o 2. 1945-1989: Eastern Bloc (Comecon-Warsaw Pact) period. Centered on Moscow. Pooling of military resources, economic resources. International division of labour o 3. 1992 onwards: EU expansion era, EU takes in CEE states and/or significantly affects domestic politics of almost all countries in the region - Significance o At first, CEE is not a coherent region, largely backwards, territory exchanged back and forth by regional powers o First unity under Communist/Soviet rule o Except for Russia, CEE states are never at the center of the regime they are a part of o Role of external powers in setting & enforcing political agendas for states in region 20. Return to Europe - The return to Europe is one of the three common discourses: o Definition: CEE states have been artificially separated from the European mainstream (Central Europe, parts of Ukraine, Baltic States, Slovenia, Croatia)  Austro-Hungarian empire seen as being more ―forward‖ than the Ottoman empire and accepted sooner  Reestablishment of political, economic, and cultural links with Western Europe, unites most parts of the political spectrum in CEE - Significance: o Today the question of Europe features in all key debates of post-communist politics: democratization, economic choices, minority rights o A post-communist state‘s relation to Europe is also a contentious internal issue used by elites to generate political capital, discredit opposition o These fledgling market democracies are asking for affirmation that they belong to the West o Joining the EU is not about security concerns but rath
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