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Sociology 251- lecture, test & study

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Frank Trovato

Midterm I Sociology 251 I. The study of population • Population issues are frequently reported in the mass media o Example: too many kids for school space available • Many seemingly unconnected issues are actually related to population • The study of population encompasses life, death and everything else in between • Birth▯individual growth and development; life course processes▯ death o This middle stage is a very complex process • Example: present fertility rates affect the future- city planners must accommodate for children 5 or so years down the road (hire more teachers, build new schools etc.) • Women are having children at a later age, and the longer they wait, the more risks they take with fertility complications. • People are living longer, and as they age they are experiencing multiple aging medical complications at one time o Alzheimer’s disease is becoming more and more common o Problems with elderly people and postal services How age structuring is related to social and political spectrums Majority young people or majority old people affect these spectrums in different ways; different influence. II. Some fundamental concepts • Demography- Greek: demos (people); graphia (study of) o The scientific study of population, its structure and change (growth), due to the interplay of births, deaths and migration.  Interplay of these 3 variables determines change. Term coined byArchille Guillard (a Belgian mathematician) in 1855 Concept of a “population” Peter Turchin, ‘complex population dynamics’ (P.19) III.How demographers look at population Preston, Heuveline and Guillot, demography (2000, p.1) A human population is: Adynamic collectivity (aggregate) Bounded by: Geography Political structure Common history It is continuously changing due to: Accession processes (births, in-migration) Attrition processes (deaths, out-migration) It exists through time and can be projected into the future III. the sociological concept of population • fluidity of boundaries • open populations • e.g., ethnic mobility phenomenon IV. the basic variables of demography • fertility (births) • mortality (death) • migration (in, out) • population growth (i.e. increase, decrease or stability) results from interplay of changes in theses three variables. • Changes in society (i.e. culture and social structure) determine change in fertility, mortality and migration o Example: increase in women in the labor force is related to change in fertility rate. o Example: Canada being a welcoming country to people of different origins is related to change in migration rate Natural increase (births-deaths) and age structure (the way age and sex distribution arranges itself) (or age composition) are two additional key demographic variables V.formal demography and population studies Two interrelated divisions in the field (the study of population) Formal demography Population studies (social demography) Formal demography: Quantitative analysis; Data collection (census, vital statistics, surveys, official record, etc.); Mathematical modeling of demographic processes; Population estimates and projections; Data evaluation and correction etc. Key question: how many people of what kind are where? Population studies: Analysis of determinants and consequences of population phenomena; Specify the conditions under which a demographic phenomenon is expected to evolve (explanation and prediction---i.e., theory); Interdisciplinary perspective (social sciences, natural sciences, medical sciences); Key questions: W5- “what, where, who, when, why”; And “so what?” (societal implications) Formal demography (basic concepts) In a closed population (i.e., migration is absent): Change in population size is due to change in the numbers of births minus the numbers of deaths: Pt1 – Pt0 = [Bt1,t0 – Dt1,t0] In a population closed to migration: The population growth rate ® is the same as the rate of natural increase (RNI). Thus, RNI (or r) = b-d Where, B= births/population D= For populations open to migration: RNI = b-d = birth rate – death rate But, population growth rate ® is: Where, R= growth rate P0= P1= N= Note: this the linear growth rate; there are other formulas for expressing the growth rate (geometric; exponential) The demographic components equation (demographic balancing equation) Pt1-Pt0= (Bt1,t0 – Dt0,t1) + (INt0,t1 – OUTt0,t1) = natural increase =net migration where, Pt0= population at the beginning of the interval Pt1= population at the end of the interval B= births in the interval D= deaths in the interval IN= migration in OUT= migration out T0= in the start of the interval under observation T1= in the end of the interval under observation VI. Population projections Population observed (1971- 2009) and projected (2010-2061) according to three scenarios Low growth scenario Medium growth projection (thought to be most likely) High growth projection Population projection: estimate of size and structure of the population over a specified future horizon based on assumed changes in demographic variable between the start and the end point of the projection period. VII. Population growth models Linear (arithmetic) ▯ population (y-axis), time (x-axis) Growth through constant increments at constant intervals P1= P0(1-rn) Trend: (1,2,3,4,5,6,7,8….) Geometric ▯ population (y-axis), time (x-axis) Assumption: population changes at the beginning/end of each year. Growth compounding at a constant intervals (e.g., at the end of each year) Trend: (1,2,4,8,16,32…) Exponential ▯ population (y-axis), time (x-axis) P1= p0e^(rn) R= ((lnP1-lnP0)/n) Features: same as the geometric model except that growth is assumed to be compounding continuously Others Population at t0▯ population at t1 How much has the population grown between What was the average rate of growth of population between these two points VIII. population studies- variety of research Key points: Data by themselves cannot explain anything Explanation of observed demographic phenomena requires the development of models (theory) of the underlying processes (micro/macro linkages) Relevant readings: population and society▯ pp.32-42 Models help us to organize our understanding of observed phenomena (models based approach to science) – Nathan keyfitz Sampson and Messner study: sex ratio and violent crime across USA cities, article in social forces 1991 Sociological theory predicts: Ratio of: males in young adult ages to females in young adult ages Plus, rate of violent crime (i.e., homicide death rate) [Ratio of: -------- + -----▯ rate of violent crime] BUT, their empirical analysis showed only a weak, non-significant negative statistical correlation Further analysis: Their re-analysis under this model supports the original theory, though a more complex version of it. Key is better specification of theory. Note: a positive sign means positive relationship; negative sign means negative relationship Sex ratio has a psotive relationship to relative size of high risk demographic groups and Predicting adult health and mortality from adolescent facial characteristics in yearbook photographs (demography 46 (2009): 27-41) Research question: does body weight during ones teens predict ones health and mortality risk in adulthood? Wisconsin longitudinal study (WLS) 11-point scale was developed to code high school senior class yearbook photographs of WLS participants for relative body mass (RBM) what did they find: strong predictive correlation between ranked weight of persons in the photographs and these same persons actual BMI scores in adulthood. Subsequent analysis reveled that these overweight ranked adolescents were about three times more likely than healthy weight adolescents to be obese in adulthood.And were also significantly more likely to report health problems. The implied model: Body mass index score at ages 17-18 have a positive relationship to body mass index score in adulthood and health problems in adulthood such as diabetes. This has a positive relationship to mortality risk in adulthood. The Birth surge inAlberta Conceptual model: Economic conditions (boom period vs. bust period) has a positive relationship to level of economic prosperity. Level of economic prosperity has a negative relationship to the degree of socioeconomic insecurity for households. This has a positive relationship to the mean age at child bearing (1 child): younger vs. older. This has a negative relationship to the number of first order births. This has a positive relationship to aggregate fertility rate. Immigrants & life expectancy Immigrants have a tendency to live longer than native born Canadians Important factors: age composition, selectivity (those who come to Canada cannot be compared to those who stayed in their home country), personality (have a risk taking personality) individuals who are healthy and robust are more likely to leave their country. Once immigrated, they have a strong supportive network among other peers who have immigrated. (greater support and social control) Lower suicide rates in immigrant communities. IX. sex differences in life expectancy in Canada: immigrant & native born populations Immigrants have higher life expectancy (LE) than Canadian born (CB) The sex differential (F-M) in life expectancy is smaller among immigrants (IM) than Canadian born (CB) population Immigrants have smaller sex gap in life expectancy Higher differential in males than in female immigrants X. The healthy migrant effect (IM-BC) mortality differentials heart disease lung cancer accidents/violence/suicide other factors immigrant community (social supports) lifestyle and health behaviors: smoking; diet… (IM-CB) = life expectancy differential duration effects (length of residence in Canada) i.e., assimilation processes affecting lifestyle and behavior XI. immigrant-Canadian born differential in sex gap in life expectancy have to bring in the selectivity factor: it appears that immigrant males have greater level of selectivity than females; tend to be healthier than females in the migration aspect key is the indirect effect of migration selectivity, which favors male immigrants; and this causes the immigrant sex gap in life expectancy to be smaller than that of the Canadian born nature: biology (sex hormones) + Canadian born (male dr – female dr) culture/social: male – female ▯ behavioral differences (health risks) XII. micro/macro link: immigrant & native born Canadians Macro level observation: immigrants have higher life expectancy than the Canadian Micro level processes: Selectivity process: self selection for migration; “hea;thy migrant”; official health screening; psychological/ personality dispositions Migration is a significant change in life. Generally, the most healthy will emigrate (implies decision making process by the individual; must be in good health to migrate. XIII.Age period and cohort: immigrant & native born Canadians Age has to be brought into the analysis: there is a biological time, babies do not immigrate themselves; time to mature etc. Time (period effect): things can happen with time; there could be an economic crash that could impact immigration factors Cohort: (diagonal) birth cohort; all born at the same time.All of us belong to different birth cohorts. The cohort is the engine of social change. Cohorts both react to and create social change. Either implicitly or explicitly, these 3 factors are always there. XIV. Individual and cohort: The individual and his cohort experience major life events and transitions together (e.g., graduation, first job, marriage, first child, retirement) but with some degree of variation around the central tendency. In the aggregate, individual belonging to a cohort and are often similarly affected by major social events—period shocks (e.g., national war, economic depression, economic booms, social movements etc.) XV. Population data: their sources and nature Census, vital statistics registration system and other data sources Census: Latin “censare”, meaning “to access” A‘snapshot’ of the population at one point in time Statistical accounting of a country and its people at one point in time Areflection of its time: Early census of Canada Some key concerns: Immigration, Country of birth of the population, Race & ethnicity, Religion Agriculture More recent consuses of Canada Some key concerns: Changing origins of immigrants (“visible minorities”) Ethnic mobility (multiethnicities) New conjugal unions (common-law; same sex unions) Is census an intrusion of our privacy? Many Canadians feel it is an intrusion Tony clement: decided its time to change things; it is no longer mandatory (long form) What is mandatory are the basic 8 questions, the long form is a voluntary survey (national household survey [64 questions] more personal) Ancient times: first census of northAmerica, 1666 New France Modern times: Scandinavian countries institutes modern census’ Developing countries: many cant afford a census. Instead they have a demographic survey sponsored by the united nations. They also use indirect estimation methods. Types of questions usually found in a census: Demographic, sociocultural, socioeconomic, geographical. Why is the census important: Preparation of population estimates and projections Federal transfers to the provinces based on population size Population size determines amount of transfers Business applications Community needs (planning) Research purposes Census provides denominators for computation of demographic measures Vital statistics registration system: Population studies/demography as a scientific discipline is closely tied to the development of vital registration. Thomas Malthus- father of modern demography “the principle of population” John Graunt- “the bills of mortality” of London” Definition: a continuous official (legal) system Tracks incidences of vital events in the population on a continuous basis: Births Adoptions Deaths (including stillbirths and therapeutic abortions) Marriages Divorces (including legal separations and annulments) Legal features of vital statistics registration: Events must be recorded within a short period of time as specified by law Events must be recorded at the geographic place where they occur (i.e., city, town, municipality), but permanent address must also be stated (de jeure principle) Reporting vital events is compulsory by law Chart: Census ▯ demographic measures ▯ vital statistics Incidence type measures: (i.e., numerators are from vital statistics; denominators are from census) CBR CDR Marriage rate Divorce rate Migration rate Age-specific rates Prevalence type measures % youth % elderly % single % married dependency ratios sex ratio (M/F); age specific median age of population XVI. population: past, present, future (part I) The “doomsday equation”- a study done at MIT that says: at this date (Novemeber 13 2026) human population will approach infinity if it grows as it has grown in the last two millennia. “human population grows up” by Joel Cohen no person who died before 1930 had lived through the doubling of the human population nor is any person born in 20150 or later likely to live through a doubling of the human population everyone 54 or older today has seen more than a doubling of the human numbers from 3 billion to 7 billion there has been a dramatic fall of the global population growth rate since 1970 in 1950 the less developed regions had roughly twice the population of the more developed ones, by 2050 the ratio will exceed 6 to 1 “the climax of humanity” George musser demographically and economically, our era is unique in human history depending on how we manage the next few decades, we could usher in environmental… there are now 7 billion people on the planet together we consume 1.4 eaths worth of resources per year if everyone consumed like americans we’d need 5.4 earths to sustain us “how should we set priorities” by: wayt Gibbs the world faces no showrtage of problems- or good ideas to solve them which should we tackle next? No trade-offs are obvious, and improving ones problem sometimes exacerbates others. The problem of regional inequality—the demographic divide Increasing polarization of resources and wealth Some authors have argued that rich world countries are surviving on the backs of some third world countries ‘the survival of the fattest’ sculpture in the Copenhagen harbor symbolizes this above point “can extreme poverty be eliminated?” by Jeffery Sachs market economics and globalization are lifting the bulk of humanity out of extreme poverty, but special measures are needed to help the poorest of the poor. UN classification of countries/ regions More developed All of Europe and northAmerica (excluding Mexico) Australia Japan New Zealand Less developed All other regions and countries Least developed 49 countries with especially low incomes, high economic vulnerability, and poor human development indicators these 49 countries, there economies are so volatile that it makes their countries really unstable what we mean by development indicators: educations, health, income components of the human development index: health life expectancy at birth education mean years of schooling expected years of schooling living standards gross national income per capita *** health, education & living standards are the three dimensions *** the points below are the four indicators “how did the developing countries become “developing”” (many scholars have addresses this big question) culture? ▯ some cultures allow more freedom of exploration colonialism? ▯ the legacy of colonialism may explain a lot about this question geography/environment ▯ what sort of natural resources are available and the kind of agricultural output that is available. Some areas are also conducive to parasites. Uneven development ▯ some countries are mostly rural so the countryside is not developing at the same rate as the urban areas (may also be tied to colonialism) Demography? All? XVII. Population: past, present, future (part II) The origins of civilization As we evolve as a population, we invent society The great Justinian plague: first major disease that effected mass numbers of the population In 1519 AD, after the Spanish conquisadors invaded, within 80 years, the population falls from about 22 million to about 2 million (page 86) How can we know the demography of the distant past? In notebook**** (graph) Sketch adapted fromAnsley Coale, the history of the human population Population of the world through history Most of the worlds population increase has taken place in the past two centuries. It took hundreds of thousands of years for the human race to reach its 1960 total of about three billion people. That number doubled over the 40 years that followed. The figure in 2006 was 6.5 billion. “from a very long period of very slow growth to a recent period of explosive growth” –A.J Coale the modern rise of population: talking about the fairly recent explosion in human population. Historians debate when and why it really started. Coping with infectious disease is an important part of human history The great spike in world population growth The peak in the growth rate occurred in about the mid 1960’s-early 1970’s: 2.1%. in 2012, it dropped to 1.2%. The UN population projects: continuation of decline in the rate of growth.And in the long term it will come back around to the way it was in the distant past, that it will stabilize (rates around zero) Population and societies: the rising numbers of humankind by: Jean-noel Biraben C.30,000-10,000 BCE (upper Paleolithic) acquisition of clothing, hunting and fishing tools. 8,000-5,000 (Neolithic revolution) agriculture (agricultural revolution), domestication of animals and plants. The first settlements and cities take place around this time. Industrial revolution (from 18 century onward; still in progress) we have already gone through this, but some countries around the world (china, India, brazil) are going through it today. The development of the human population was not a smooth process, it goes through a lot of cycles, and each cycle exemplifies the death rate. The concept of population cycles is very important. Biraben’s Thesis: [ecological pushes disasters/ invasions/ mortality crisis] ▯ [culture contact, human ingenuity, emergence of new technologies] ▯ [from submission to nature to the “control” of nature] ▯ [population growth cycles punctuated by major growth spurts.] ** goes through a cycle the demographic transition model: intellectual origins warren Thompson (1929) three groups of countries (categories): high birth rates and high but declining death rates declining birth rates and death rates, both declining, but the death rates declining faster rapidly declining birth and death rates, with birth rates declining faster. Assumed these represent historical stages.Assumed that all countries would go through these different stages. This sparked controversy and stimulated more research. Frank Notestein (1945) Population change is a function economic development Formulated the demographic transition maodel based on the experience of the western world. Predicted countries pass through four stages Kingsley Davis Produced a similar idea to above “the world demographic transition”,Annals of theAmerican academy of political and social science. Ansley J. Coale One of the most important scholars and researchers in the field of population studies 1960’s through early 1980’s The European fertility project Studied vital statistics for the countries in Europe to investigate the historical patterns of mortality and fertility change in the context of socioeconomic development Couldn’t find a uniform theory of causes of demographic transition. Proposed a set of “preconditions” for onset of transition. One precondition is that somehow, couples view it as advantageous to control family size. Another precondition is the type if birth control available Another precondition is that typically, the first variable that changes, that starts to decline significantly, is mortality rate. *** The Demographic Transition model (western model) in notebook *** XVIII. Population: past, present, future (part III) Demographic transition: variations around a theme Aproblem that Coale found- different countries experience different intensities at different times with different variations (this is what he meant by there was no uniform theory). These variations can be due to famines at different times, famine at different points, and due to location, countries may experience transitions of economies differently. The demographic transition of Canada: We do have extensive information on one part of the country, in Quebec The population of New France, 1680-1960 1608: (Champlain & a few settlers found Quebec) by 1750: population had grown to ~ 50,000 mainly a function of very high natural increase (even though there was some emigration to USA) factors? Early, universal marriage Exceptionally high marital fertility- average family size was up to 10 children. (Hutterites) Relatively low death rates among settlers. (lower density of population, more spread out) (also has to do with the selection factor if immigrants Demographic transition of the developing countries: (delayed transition & transitional populations) Can divide them into two categories Less developed – delayed transition societies Less developed – transitional societies Examples for delayed transition societies: Poorest countries is the world: virtually all of sub-Saharan Africa,Afghanistan, Pakistan.. Examples for transitional societies: virtually all of central and southAmerica. The western experience ***** Endogenous development- gradual socioeconomic changes over more than a century Societies change economically, socially, economically, politically, culturally… in such a way that people see conditions improve. There is synergetic interactions throughout sectors in society that work together to improve conditions From acceptance of fate to increasing “control” over nature From ‘folk’ society to urban-industrial society Many interrelated “transitions” (modernization processes) Agricultural, technological, economic, scientific, political, medical, cultural etc. The “vital transition” (demographic transition) The experience for developing countries (different experience) ***** “exogenous” development (i.e., international aid and assistance: public health; family planning, development aid, etc.)” faster pace of mortality decline fertility before the decline (much higher) rate of population growth (much higher RNI’s) momentum for future growth (much greater) international migration as a possible “outlet” for relieving demographic pressure (limited) economic development (delayed/lagged, some more than others; diverse experiences; some moving ahead fast) ▯ such as China some key factors differentiating two countries experiences (not important to study) government efficiency degree of sociopolitical stability degree of investments in human capital level of human development XIX. age-sex composition (part I) The age and sex structure is itself a factor in determining change in the social system. Example: Canada is considered an aging society. the societal implications… Ageing of the population means we think of ourselves differently as a society. Age and sex demographic analysis- (and why society pays attention so much to these variables) As a society we are kind of obsessed with these variables: on legal documents we are asked for our age and sex. There are age restrictions on some rights. Because of our age and gender, our insurance rates are different according to these variables. Statistically, males have more accidents than females and therefore, rates are higher for young males age: biological fact (maturation) social fact (cultural interpretations of age..) from a societal point of view, it would be crazy to encourage really young people to have children our society considers people to be adults once they reach the age of 18. Sex: Biological fact (male or female) Social fact (culture interprets the meaning of the biological fact); whether you’re a male or female determines how you’re treated by society (i.e., gender) Females in Canada make over 40% less than the average male in Canada. Both these variables: Social roles, statuses and expectations Biological processes associated with maturation Aging; reproduction These variables translate into: Sexuality and reproduction Conjugal relationships parenthood migration work retirement widowhood death ageing as a social fact “ the state largely controls access to old age by establishing a chronological age at which individuals are entitled to major old age benefits” peter Uhlenberg sex composition and societal implications quotes from the book: too many women?: the sex-ratio question “… but suppose for the moment that there were some populations with more of one gender than the other, what would the social consequences be?” “..the number of opposite sex partners potentially available to men or women has profound effects on sexual behaviors and sexual mores, on patterns of marriage and divorce, childbearing conditions and practices, family stability and certain structural aspects of society itself” Marcia guttentag & Paul F. Secord Associated readings (population and society) Ansley coale, “how a population ages or grows younger” Points to the important role of fertility in determining how a populations age composition changes i.e., to age or get younger age composition of a population can get older or younger, mainly due to change in fertility, and to a lesser extent, mortality change mortality declines become increasingly important in the more advances post-transitional societies as a factor in population ageing Ron lee “the demographic transition: three centuries of fundamental change” *** do reading Discusses significant changes as the world progresses toward the end of the demographic transition, expected to occur around 2100 when all countries will have ended their transitions st Over the 21 century the world will keep growing in absolute numbers, likely reaching 2011 a population of 10 billion.. As the demographic transition unfolds, there are concomitant changes population age composition XX. age-sex composition (part II) Age composition: three main components of the age distribution of population Youth- under the age of 15 Working age population- age 15-64 Post labor force- age 65+ Youth dependency ration (YDR) YDR= ((P0-14)/(P15-64)) x 100 Interpretation: >100: more youths vis. Working age population 100: equal balance youths and working age population <100: fewer youths vis. Working age population old age dependency ratio (OADR) OADR= ((P65+)/(P15-64)) x 100 Interpretation: >100: more seniors vis. Working age population 100: equal balance seniors and working age population <100: total dependency ratio (TDR) TDR= YDR + OADR XXI. age-sex composition (part III) Three broad segments of the population age structure 65+ (post labour force population) 15-64 (working population) <15 (youths) *** 1&3 are dependents, supported by the working populations implicit generational contract: we all take turns in being dependents and workers the highest dependency burdens are typically found in populations that are relatively young in the least developed countries there are the highest percentages of people younger than 15. The most developed countries have a much lower percentage of people younger than 15 The most developed countries have a much higher old age dependency rate than the least developed countries. The oldest countries in the world have the highest old age dependency ratios. Old countries such as japan, Germany and Italy project that in 2050, the old age dependency rates will increase exponentially Currently, and until mid-century, the least developed countries have the highest total dependency burden. Other measures of age composition Median age th The age representing the 50 percentile of all ages in the population The median is preferred to the arithmetic mean The Canadian median age is 41 years as of 2011 NB: there are quite a number of others measures beside these. Typology of age compositions 1. Young, rapid growth population pyramid shape: wide base, narrow top e.g., the world in 1950. 2. Intermediate forms gradual movement away from the true pyramid shape i.e., movement toward an aging population structure (wider middle and wider top) 3. Slow growth stable RNI close to a value of zero.Aging population 4. Stationary stable. RNI is zero. No growth. Old population. The “stable population” (a key concept in formal demography) Comes from the work ofAlfred J. Lotka (most influence mathematical formal demographer) The characteristic equation for the stable population model. Two types of stable populations (hypothetical populations closed to migration) Stable population that is either growing or declining by a constant RNI (intrinsic RNI) Stable population that is stationary. RNI equals zero, constant. Population momentum An inherent feature of age composition: builds on stable population theory. Momentum is built into the age structure of the worlds population The more young people, the more potential parents. This keeps the population growing The current age composition of the population determines the amount of future population growth that is unavoidable. This idea comes from Nathan Keyfitz It is possible to derive the momentum of population growth factor with a simple formula that assumes an immediate drop to the replacement level fertility in the population. Momentum of growth factor (M)= (be0/1000(root NRR)) Where, B= crude birth rate E0= life expectancy at birth NRR= net reproduction rate (a measure of fertility) If, M> 1.000 (positive momentum) M< 1.000 (negative momentum) M= 1.000 (no momentum) M for the world today is 1.33 (i.e., about 33%) Population momentum changes in accordance with changing demographic conditions XXII. age-sex composition (part IV) Fertility, mortality, RNI and age composition Relationships based on stable population simulations Fertility change and mortality change contribute to the rate of natural increase as well as age composition. The relative impact of the change of fertility is stronger on age composition as compared to the effect of mortality. It is the change in the birth rate that determines how the age composition changes, for the most part. Mortality has a DIRECT effect on age composition. Fertility must go through rate of natural increase to have an effect of age composition. Note: effect of migration on age composition is typically minor at the national level.At the local level it can be noticeable however. Effects of mortality declines on age composition: transitional and post transitional populations (see: ansley coals chapter in essential readings) Mortality improvements ---▯ in a transitional population (typically young populations) Makes the population younger i.e., expansion of the base of age pyramid expansion of population in the reproductive ages. These effects will in times resolve however as the population moves through the demographic and aging transitions Mortality improvements ----▯ in a post transitional population (typically aging populations) Makes population older i.e., “aging at the top”- more elderly living longer these populations have also been “aging at the bottom” due to a regime of low fertility sex ratio sex ratio= (#males/#females)X 100 population sex ratio: nature: sex ratio of conceptions (primary sex ratio): there are more males conceived than females sex ratio of intrauterine mortality sex ratio at birth (secondary sex ratio): the mortality rate in utero favors females a sociological dimension of the sex ratio argument: sex selective abortion skewed sex ratios the war on baby girls. Gendercide, killed, aborted or neglected at least 100m girls….. implications of changing age composition David foot with Daniel stoffman “demography explains 2/3 of everything” past fertility trends▯ current age structure (birth cohorts) ▯ socioeconomic outcomes for cohort members (ability to fulfill material aspirations) birth cohorts + socioeconomic outcomes for cohort members ▯ impacts on society: (small cohorts, small impact; large cohorts, large impact) real estate market would be impacted- as the baby boomers move on to other places, many people of the same cohort are effected at the same time investing in pensions- when people get older, the think more about investing in their pension jobs and promotions- not enough Canadians are saving for school which means that they are in debt and have to stay working longer. The next generation is having a hard time entering the work market with all of the older people still in the positions they want. Urban issues- we have to adjust as a society; transportation and residential Education patters Healthcare issues Family and intergenerational relationships- more intergenerational overlap, grandchildren have more access to their grandparents because people are living longer. This means that younger generations have more access to different things and resources. ** ansley coale, kinglsley davis, warren Thompson…. Midterm II Sociology 251 Nuptiality (Pt. I) There is a sociological significance of love; love, sex, formation of unions, marriage and sentiment There are all kinds of rules about when society finds it appropriate to reproduce. Social change and Nuptiality change The emergence of accepting gay marriage and legally bound partnerships. Important question to ask: why is it acceptable in some countries/regions, and not others. Differences across countries is tied to culture, beliefs and values Post industrial societies question the importance of the role of marriage It is not as central as it used to be; people are more involved in the idea of “partnerships”. Now we don’t think of conjugal relationships like we did in the past, gender roles are not as significant. Nuptiality in demographic analysis Nuptiality- “the incidence of marriage in a population” More generally: the social demographic study of nuptiality covers all aspects of family formation and dissolution. Singlehood, marriage, divorce, separation, remarriage, widowhood; Other conjugal unions (e.g., cohabitation, same sex unions, polygyny, etc.) As well as households (singles, lone parents, multigenerational, etc.) Includes not only the nuclear family, but also more diverse modern household situations Singlehood is becoming a more popular choice The role of Nuptiality in population change The effect of Nuptiality is indirect in many ways Culture is very much involved in anything related to nuptiality processes Nuptiality processes- conditioned by culture and social structure Demographic processes- (arise as a function of nuptiality processes): fertility, mortality, migration. Males have greater protection from marriage than females. Many women have to move because their husbands have to move for work or other reasons (how it can be related to migration) Midterm II Sociology 251 Quantitative change: population size, growth rate etc. Qualitative change: population composition; age-sex, marital status etc. Can influence the distribution of men and women in relation to their conjugal state, depending on what is going on in society There is increasingly a huge distribution of single/unmarried people Qualitative change has an indirect effect on quantitative change through these variables Nuptiality and associated demographic processes Culture and social structure Union formation Any type of conjugal union acceptable to a society Frequency (incidence) of unions Union duration and dissolution Timing of unions; people today are getting married much older than in the past Duration of unions; how long do marriages last? The probability of the dissolution of a marriage depends on when they got married and how long they have been married The longer a couple has been married, the smaller the chance of dissolution Union formation and union duration/dissolution are effected by demographic processes and demographic structure Prevalence of female early marriage (marriage before the age of 18) around the world: role of culture and social structure The more poor areas of the world have relatively high early marriage rates It can be a way of dealing with poverty within families Richer countries have much lower rates of early marriage in women; this can be a result of economic conditions within a family and on an individual level Over time, more women are staying single in prime marriageable ages; delay of marriage Basic measures of nuptiality: Crude marriage rate: (CMR) CMR= (M/P)x1000 Crude divorce rate: (CDR) CDR= CdivR= (D/P)x1000 Problem with the denominator: Includes those not at risk of marriage or divorce I.e. population <15 Midterm II Sociology 251 Marriage and divorce are highly age specific, not captured by “crude” measures* Crude marriage and divorce rates in Canada Historically, there is an irregular pattern of marriage and divorce rates During economic events such as the depression or the second world war, there was a decline in marriage Since about the mid 70’s there is a fairly consistent declining trend in marriage rates. With respect to divorce, there has been a high increase in rates since 1968 due to more liberal divorce laws. More currently, there is a slight decline in divorce rates, keeping in mind that there are fewer people getting married in the first place ** Quebec- a catholic province dominantly- there is a much higher decline in the marriage rate than other provinces in Canada Cohabitation: Culture: national context- NW Europe; quebec vs. rest of Canada; Japan, s. Europe) Cohort effects: younger vs. older generations of young adults Period effects: effected by economic change, employment rates. Cohabitation regimes: three stages societies take before accepting cohabitation as a norm in society Marginal type- fringe elements (the beginning of the trend) Precursor to marriage- a sort of trial to marriage Normative- indistinguishable from marriage; many children born within cohabiting unions ** they key indicator that society has accepted cohabitation is when people have children within a cohabited union, and it is completely normal. Evolutionary thesis of monogamy- why monogamy has spread across the world Joseph Henrich, Robert Boyd and Peter Richardson “monogamous marriage has been favored by cultural evolution because of its group beneficial effects” monogamy: suppress intrasexual competition by reducing the size of the pool of unmarried men thus, reduces crime rates (including rape, murder and assault); monogamy suppresses this. By assuaging the competition for younger brides, normative monogamy decreases: The spousal gap Midterm II Sociology 251 Fertility Gender inequality By shifting male efforts from seeking wives to paternal investment, normative monogamy increases savings, child investment and economic productivity By increasing the relatedness within households, normative monogamy reduces intra-household conflict, leading to lower rates of child neglect, abuse, accidental death and homicide. Nuptiality (pt. II) Fabio Mariani (2012)- the economic value of virtue Analyzes the interaction between socioeconomic factors and the value and prevalence of female virginity Historically premarital chastity has been an important factor influencing spouse selection The prevalence of virginity increases with male inequality, lower economic development, and less egalitarian gender roles. As societies modernize economically, there is a general decline of the importance of chastity in favor or a more widespread practice of premarital sex. Societies differ with respect to how they view marriage, sexuality, love etc. Faramerz Dabhoiwala (2012)- the origins of sex: a history of the first sexual revolution th The first sexual revolution. How mortality became personal in 18 century England--- or, the rising importance of sentiment in modern life. When and why did things start to change? th The late 17 century: backlash against extreme puritanism (upper classes first) Urbanization: mass migration of young people from the countryside allows them to explore “a new freedom”- to explore their sexuality, sentiment and love. The rise of printed media (sexually oriented stories)- spread of ideas; resexuality KEY factor: the spread of religious tolerance and nonconformity, which eroded the churches authority and let people define morality more personally. th But it would not be until the late 20 century that sexual liberation included females. For the most part, the first sexual revolution was mostly a revolution of the upper classes and mainly for males. Midterm II Sociology 251 It was generally assumed that while it was “natural” for men to persue sexual opportunity, women were instinctively more virtuous. This changed later with the second sexual revolution of the 1960’s. John Hajnal- the European marriage pattern (the Malthusian transition) Included many of the western countries and northern Italy The distinctive marks of the European pattern are (1) a high age at marriage and (2) a high portion of the people who never marry at all. The European pattern pervaded the whole of Europe except for the eastern and south eastern portion. The ancient world ▯ 1400 ▯ transition to the western European pattern ▯ 1600 ▯ late marriage; high % never married ▯ 1940 ▯ declining average age at marriage; rising marriage rates ▯ 1960s.. ▯ rising average age at marriage; high % single; declining marriage rates; “divorce revolution”; “cohabitation revolution” Post 1960s- the sociological school The “flight from marriage” in the west Modernization perspective: Kingsley Davis: Industrialization and urbanization are the driving forces Value change and the decline of tradition; secularization Capitalism and the separation of wives’ work from the family Erosion of the “breadwinner system” The rise of egalitarian gender roles The gradual erosion of the family as an institution since the industrial revolution. The second demographic transition perspective Early 1970’s: “marriage boom” (temporary phenomenon) Post 1970’s: “the flight from marriage”: “the divorce revolution” The “cohabitation revolution” (Scandinavian countries as leaders- Denmark, Sweden) Plurality of conjugal unions (including same sex marriage; lone parenting, single living…) Differentiation: in marriage propensities along education and income classes (assertive mating) Human Fertility (pt. I) Fertility is both a social and biological phenomenon Human fertility as a social biological process Midterm II Sociology 251 Behavior- couples make decisions, and act based on those decisions Culture Social structure Environment Biology ** all of these factors are interrelated and are hard to septerate when studying human fertility Concepts Fertility Actual reproductive output (of a woman; a man; a couple; a population). The realization of fecundity. As indicated by the number of live births Note* at the population level we study aggregate measures of fertility- there are several such measures Fecundity The physiological ability to conceive and bring to term a live birth “logically, fecundity depends on a sequence of events: the female must produce an egg capable of being fertilized, the male must produce sperm that can fertilize the egg……” pg. 164 in text infecundity the opposite of fecundity- the total inability to reproduce (i.e., the condition of being sterile) subfecundity (infertility) the reduced physiological ability to conceive and bring to term a live birth due to a variety of factors, including: coital inability, conceptive failure; involuntary pregnancy loss before a live birth. Sterility, fecundity and subfecundity: sterile (infecund) primary sterility born with or contracts a disease that renders the person incapable of ever conceiving secondary sterility inability to conceive subsequent to having at least one child subfecundity (infertility) reduced ability to conceive or carry to term a live birth due to: Midterm II Sociology 251 medical/ genetic conditions/ physiological conditions acquired diseases (infections) illness psychological/ emotional conditions (e.g., excessive stress effects on coition) degree of subfecundity can vary, though medically treatable Dr.Spar; Princeton university Wrote a book (the baby business) on what couples will do to conceiving a baby. “the average cost of producing a baby through new reproductive technologies in the U.S can be well over $50,000” in almost every human society 15-25% of the population in infertile (subfecund assisted reproduction: no stork needed Dr. Robert G Edwards 1978: worlds first “test tube” baby (Louise brown) January 7 2006: Louise brown gave birth to her first natural child 1976-2008: 3.5 million test tube babies have come into the world culture “interprets” the facts in our culture, birth defects are considered a problem in other parts of the world (India for example) birth defects (such as a baby born with two faces) would consider it to be a good thing; a blessing. 2012: the year of the dragon. The Chinese believe that babies born with this iteration of the 12 year zodiac cycle are gifted with increased fertility. Japan: the year of the fiery horse: there is a cultural belief that every 60 years is the year of the fiery horse, girls born that year are not suitable for marriage; this actually severely impacts fertility rates Social structure at work: fertility regulation in china There is a one child policy implemented by the government Wealthy couples will spend a lot of money to “buy” their way into having more than one child In most humans, there is a desire to have at some point, at least one baby. Social pressure to reproduce: The case of Japanese princess Masako Had one daughter; Midterm II Sociology 251 Society put a lot of pressure on the princess to conceive a boy, to have an heir; She couldn’t (physically) have anymore children because of the intense pressure put on her The government changed the laws to let her daughter be an heir. Declining age at menarche in contemporary girls: some hypothesis/ speculations Dr. Shafiq “a growing concern” Genetic factors Sexualized graphic material in the mass media Obesity (fat cells act as estrogen factories) Environment contaminants: estrogen like chemicals Living with an unrelated adult male: a young girl unconsciously senses the mans pheromones, the body’s natural scents which stimulate early puberty; if her biological father is present, this works in the opposite effect- to delay the onset of menses. Race/ethnicity:African American girls seem to show a greater problem with this thesis of Udry and Cliquet interaction of biology and culture explains variations in age at marriage and at first birth biology (age at menarche: early vs. late) ▯ attractiveness to males (high vs. low) ▯ age at sexual debut (early vs. late) ▯ culture (degree of social control of female sexuality (high vs. low) ▯ age at first birth (younger vs. older) ▯ culture also controls the age at first marriage (early vs. late) spring/ early summer peak in births: “proception”—a conscious- rational process culture and social structure ▯ “timing” preferences: spring/early summer births) ▯ p proception discontinue contraception more frequent sex more visits to clinic self monitoring peak timing of conceptions: june- September spring/ early summer peak in the incidences of births (march/june) Midterm II Sociology 251 Human Fertility (pt.II) Measures of fertility Two types of measures: period and cohort Period: CBR, GFR, ASFR (age specific fertility rate), TFR, GRR, NRR, MAC Cohort: same measures as for period, but specific to generations of women born in the same periods Age, period and cohort (inherent feature of all demographic processes) Age (at last birthday) y-axis Period (calendar time) x-axis At the bottom corner of the graph is the moment of birth The top corner is the potential moment of extinction The diagonal line on the chart signifies cohort The female reproductive period is from about age 15 to age 50 the crude birth rate CBR=(B/P)X1000 B= births in a given interval P= population at mid interval (i.e., average population exposed to the event) Key limitations of CBR: numerator and denominator do not correspond Numerator is births to women in the childbearing ages, but the denominator also contains women past their childbearing, as well as women and men. Fertility is age specific; CBR misses this feature Age-specific fertility rates (ASFRs) ASFR= (Bx/Wx)X1000 Bx= births to women age x Wx= mid-interval female population aged x Note: can be expressed as per women (leave out the constant) This is a basic measure, but it can be built on in many ways Allow us to think of an overall measure of TFR Total fertility rate (TFR) TFR for single year age catrgories: The sum of the age specific fertility rates in a given period Take the sum of theASFR’s aged 15 to 49 Midterm II Sociology 251 ASFR per woman, where x means age category, and f is the symbol forASFR TFR for 5 year age categories take the sum of the rates and multiply by five the sum ofASFRs 15-19 and __-49 interpretation of period TFR TFR is the average number of children per woman, based on current ASFRs in the population TFR is the measure of completed fertility for a hypothetical women exposed to the prevailingASFR’s in the population ages 15-50 Arandomly selected women from a cohort of 1000 women who start child bearing at age 15 and experience theASFR’s of a given population observed in year (t) By age 50, at the end of her childbearing years, She would have borne a certain number of children (i.e., an average) This number (average) is the period TFR NB: this second interpretation gets at the concept of “reproductivity” (i.e., generational replacement, a key concept in demography) Why period TFR is often used instead of cohort measures Cohort fertility data are good for retroactive analysis, but problematic for perspective analysis Recall the lexis diagram. In cohort analysis its always the case that we will have the problem of incomplete data for the younger cohorts moving into the future, past the present point of observation. Moreover, there will always be incomplete information for the cohorts of the past that are beyond the starting point of the observation period The period TFR is a convenient measure of population reproductivity—i.e., the extent to which current fertility….. TFR and the concept of replacement (in a closed population—i.e., one with no migration—the following relationships generally apply) observed TFR: <2.1- fertility is below replacement; decline to extinction 2.1 fertility is just at replacement; stability >2.1 fertility is above replacement ; unlimited growth Midterm II Sociology 251 these are all long run implications for the population, assuming TFR remains constant TFR allows us to think of reproductivity ** the .10 takes into account the possibility of mortality, in a cohort of 1000 women, it is likely at least one woman will pass away. The .10 is a generally accepted standard but must be modified in areas where mortality rates are high gross reproductive rate (GRR): “given the observed TFR, to what extent would mothers be replaced by their daughters assuming this TFR remained constant” GRR= the TFR multiplied by the sex ratio at birth (i.e., proportion of all births that are female, here denoted by pi) In most populations this proportion is typically around 0.4878 (about 49%) corresponding to a sex ratio at birth of 105 boys to 100 girls* * the exact value of this proportion can vary across populations net reproduction rate (NRR) takes into account the effect of mortality to females in the childbearing ages (i.e., the reason we typically add .10 to the TFR) essentially a measure of survival probabilities multiply eachASFR by the corresponding female survival ration for that age group then the sum of these products. Then multiply the sum of the products by……. Human Fertility (pt.III) Approximate relationship of TFR to NRR If period TFR is <2.1 then NRR should be approx. <1 If period TFR is 2.1 then NRR should be approx.. 1 If period TFR is >2.1 then NRR should be approx. >1 This close relationship allows us to speak of replacement fertility on the basis of only the period TFR Note: GRR will always be somewhat higher than the NRR, the degree of discrepancy of NRR and GRR being a function of the level of female mortality in the reproductive ages (15-50) In high mortality settings, the difference between NRR and GRR will be substantial; in low mortality settings, the difference will be small Midterm II Sociology 251 Cohort completed fertility rate (CFR) i.e., cohort TFR Sum theASFR’s for a cohort l Then divide the sum by 1000 And multiply by 5 Note: that in the formula theASFR’s are exposed as per 1000 women; and age is in 5 year age categories…… Proximate determinants of fertility Why are high birth rates so low Recently there has been a drop in birthrates in less developed countries ASFR’s of three natural fertility populations and of Canada in 2007 Population: hutterites TFR: 10.00 Population:dobe !khung TFR: 4.360 Population: cocos-keelings islanders TFR:8.2 Population: Canada TFR:1.656 “natural fertility” populations Louis henry, 1961 Are “populations in which there is no conscious control of fertility” i.e., fertility is parity- independent Parity independent- the number of children already had has no effect on the amount of subsequent children Hutterites of s.dakota: 1920’s (highest fertility recorded for a human population French Canadians 18 century: fertility very close to hutterites No conscious planning of family size Fertility is parity-independent Regulation of fertility due to “natural factors” in interaction with culture and society E.g., Extent of sterility (primary and secondary) Midterm II Sociology 251 Extent and duration of breastfeeding Conception wait (to next conception) Fetal loss (involuntary and voluntary) Frequency of coitus Post partum sexual taboos and any other cultural practices that affect reproduction Fertility in modern populations Conscious planning of family size Fertility is parity dependent Couples regulate their fertility through conscious use of family planning Fertility as a sequential process Widespread use of contraceptive Abortion is widely relied on Marriage (union formation) is widespread but occurs relatively late Late age at first birth Late age at last birth Breastfeeding is limited to relatively short duration Intermediate framework of fertility analysis Kingsley Davis and Judith Blacke (1956) Societal factors ▯ intermediate variables ▯ fertility “society” affects fertility only indirectly (never directly) through the “intermediate variables”; social variations in fertility rates are a function of societal variations in the intermediate variables.” Three sets of intermediate variables 1. Intercourse variables- age of entry into sexual unions: young vs. old 2. conception variables- contraception: practiced vs. not practiced 3. Gestation Variables- fetal loss: voluntary (i.e., abortion); involuntary Fertility Transition Theories Jon Bongaarts Proximate determinants of fertility (quantitative expression of Davis and Blake) The formula he developed [Cm*Cc*Ca*Ci*TF]=observed TFR Midterm II Sociology 251 TF is the maximum possible fertility for a human population; and that is 15.3▯ this is a fixed number This is a multiplicative formula The range of each index is b/w 0 and 1.000; but the value of TF is fixed at 15.3 Each index acts to inhibit the maximum potential fertility of a population to some observed level of fertility (i.e., the TFR) TF= index of total fecundity Max fertility for a human population; fixed at 15.3 children per woman Cm= index of Nuptiality 1=all women of reproductive age are married; 0= no marriage Cc= index of contraception 1= no contraception; 0= all fertile women use a method that is 100% effective Ca= index of abortion 1= no abortion; 0= all pregnancies aborted Ci= index of post partum non susceptibility 1= no woman breastfeeds and there is no absence from coitus; 0= all women breastfeed and there is complete abstinence from intercourse. ** these two extreme points are theoretical and in practice, they will never be found; it will always be an in between point illustrative example: explaining the current TFR of 1.67 in Canada there is a small impact from Ci; the breastfeeding effect there is a larger impact from late marriage there is also a larger effect from the inhibiting effect of contraception; we live in a society where contraception is highly used the inhibiting effect of abortion also brings TFR down to the observed level from the maximum TFR of 15.3, all of these factors bring Canada’s level to the observed TFR of 1.67 (the minimum is 0) *** the contraception factor is important post transitional societies are closer (2) to the minimum (0); Niger is at 7.6 and societies like the hutterites at 10; again, keeping in mind, the maximum TFR is 15.3 (fixed) fertility variations across populations can be explained as a function of variation in the inhibiting effects of the proximate determinants of fecundity Midterm II Sociology 251 …… Ansley coale- the European fertility project TFR declines of at least 10% from a peak point usually indicates onset of fertility transition Regional fertility trends European projection- the chances are that the levels will increase in the future, due to their already low levels Africa is making transition, although later that counties inAsia and northAmerica Gary Becker (1960) “an economic fertility” (has served as basis for other theories of fertility transition, e.g., Caldwell’s “wealth flow” thesis; easterlins synthesis thesis…) utility of the child to parents vs. type of society (chart on slide) Utility of the child to parents: Horizontal row material utility non-material (psychic) utility Type of society: Vertical row Traditional/agrarian Modern (urban/industrial Traditional+Material utility= child as a source of material “wealth” for parents; child’s “costs” are low Traditional+non-material= relatively weak psycho emotional utility of the child to the parents (though not insignificant) Modern+Material= relatively low material utility of children to parents (but not insignificant in adulthood) Modern+non-material= child provides mainly non-material “wealth” (i.e., psycho-emotional utility); child “costs” are relatively high; huge time commitment for parents. As society progresses, there has been a transition from material utility of children to emotional utility. From societies of (traditional+material) to (modern+non-material) The substitution effect Midterm II Sociology 251 Or why a rise in household income is correlated with lower fertility in general (economic theory says a rise in income should be positively related to affordability to purchase “goods”, including children) Parents desire higher quality children, that’s why the more money they make, the fewer children they have. Easterlins Synthesis framework Lets assume we have a society going through modernization transition Moving closer to an urban industrial society For a while, fertility rates go up, and then at some point they go through a fertility transition and go down. In a traditional society, children are more in demand Early stages of modernization: Fertility increases due to combination of high Cn (supply of children) and high Rc (regulation costs of contraception) Advanced stages of modernization: Fertility falls due to the decline of Rc (regulation costs of contraception) and Cd (demand for children) ** when regulation costs decline, there is a strong motivation to use contraception ** for a while, the number increases because there is a larger supply and then there is something that changes their minds, bringing them to transition Jon Caldwell: wealth flow theory Explains the transition from high to low fertility in the context of a modernizing society (mainly based on the experience ofAfrica) Key concepts: Westernization (spread of western values; as a part of the globalization process) change in the modes of production from agrarian to capitalist due to economic globalization emotional nucleation of the family the husband, wife and the child really are the focus of the family economic nucleation of the family the resources that are produced by the family, stays with the family as opposed the an obligation to provide for the extended family all things conjunctions must take place for fertility transition to occur. Midterm II Sociology 251 Mortality and population health (pt.I) Medical definition of death Post natal cessation of vital functions without possibility of resuscitation; irreversible coma Pronounced dead at brain death (clinical view) Death can be a religious moral issue; varies on what constitutes dead. There is a complicated area of death, legally and medically. This includes, an irreversible coma but with a beating hear Is this a pregnant mother? Is this individual in a vegetative state? In these cases do you sustain life mechanically?, or do you unplug the machines? “while medication and ventilator support can sustain a heartbeat and respiration, a beating heart is not sufficient for criterion for continued life once the brain is dead” demographic definition of death the number of events called “deaths” in a population at a given interval of time resulting from a specified cause of death as listed on a medical certificate of cause of death. Aperson is not considered dead if they are missing for long periods of time, they are only considered dead from a demographers perspective once they see a death certificate. From this information it is possible to compute various types of mortality measures (period and cohort types); and also life tables Portion of a death certificate form What was the immediate cause? Are there any antecedent causes? If so, what? What is the underlying cause? (this is what is listed in statistics) Other significant conditions contributing to the death, but not related to the disease or condition causing it **people don’t always die from an organic medical cause, they can die as a result of an accident (these fall under the category of “manner of death” and these have to be investigated) international classification of diseases system (ICD) Midterm II Sociology 251 the cause of death tabulated in official statistics is the underlying cause of death, selected from the conditions listed on the medical certificate of cause of death the disease or injury which initiated the train of events leading directly to death (or) the circumstances of the accident or violence which produced the fatal injury the ICD has a long history, dating back to the 1800’s. we are now in the 10 revision of the system. System is arranged in chapters: for example, chapter one is certain infectious diseases and parasitic diseases, the next is neoplasms (cancers), and so on like this… What is health? Medical model: Views health as the absence of disease Body Mind The world health organization was unhappy with this model. new model of health There is a new emphasis on well-being Good health means more than the absence of disease (world health organization; WHO) The mind-body link + {effects of social, environmental, economic, systemic factors} Two kinds of continuums: Physical well being vs. disease continuum psychological/emotional well-being vs. disease continuum Multitude of interrelated factors: Biology (sex, age) Genetics (pre-birth effects) Individual behavior over the life course Social structure (type of society: level of development; governance. Environment (physical, social, economic) World health organization (WHO): Health is largely socially determined. Midterm II Sociology 251 Within and between populations, health disparities result primarily from inequalities in income and wealth and the pernicious effects of this inequality on individuals and families In high income nations further gains in health status can be achieved by lifestyle modifications and by the reduction of socioeconomic disparities, especially among the most disadvantaged groups. For example: most of the disparity in Canada is distributed between the extremes of the rich and the poor Globally, there exists a huge divide between wealthy and poor nations of the world with respect to population health. Reducing health inequalities are top research and policy priorities. Determinants of population health: a summary sketch Social structure factors (quality of health care system accesability; income inequality; poverty…) and behavior/ exposure to risk factors (health habits; nutrition; “accessing the system”…) ▯ individual health (physical; mental) ▯ population health (aggregate) other intervening factorsL (black box problem) genetics environment GDP/economy Research and development Efficiency of public health and medical institutions Political will.. ** we know these effects are there, but are hard to detect population health: complex interactions health is determined by complex interactions of individual and structural factors. Practically everything is related to our health (environment, behaviors…..) The quality of social environment is also related to health. Those who are more engaged socially tend to live longer and are more healthy Individual health status (psychological/physical/emotional) are linked to individual economic well-being Midterm II Sociology 251 Population health status- aggregate manifestations of health status through indexes such as: life expectancy, infant mortality rate, health adjusted life expectancy, morbidity rates, cause specific death rates, self reported health status. Measures of mortality (pt.II) Cause-specific mortality by income adequacy in Canada: a 16 year follow up study By: Michael Tjepkema, Russell Wilkins andAndrea Long Followed 2.7 million people aged 35+ at baseline during the 16 year period 2001-2006 Matched census records with death certificates Computed age-standardized mortality rates (ASMRs) and various other measures to study relationship between income and mortality by cause of death Compute ratio of quintile 1 (lowest) over quintile 5 (highest) 67% higher mortality risk in the lowest incomes in comparison to the higher ones people who make lower income have higher death rates than those with higher death rates if you’re poor, you are disadvantaged income gradients in mortality emerged for most causes of death causes more closely associated with health risk behaviors tended to have particularly steep mortality gradients alcohol related causes almost 5X higher than in higher income groups. Higher risk of injuries in lower incomes (suicide, road, intentional) Being disadvantaged socioeconomically is automatically linked to poorer health The causes of death suggest a behavioral factor among poorer groups of people (smoking, excessive drinking, higher exposure to risk) Kind of work that poorer people do is linked to the health risks they are exposed to. David Barker (1938-2013) Epidemiologist who traced roots of chronic disease early to life Challenged the idea that chronic disease such as diabetes and cardiovascular disease are explained only by bad genes and unhealthy adult lifestyles Mothers environments (prenatal environment)▯ “clues” received by the fetus from mother ▯ fetal plasticity (fetus adjusts to the “clues”- fetal programming) ▯ Adult health (chronic diseases) Midterm II Sociology 251 Barkers hypothesis (developmental model of chronic disease): the fetal environment and early infant health permanently program the body’s metabolism and growth and thus… Measures of population health Population level measures from vital statistics and census data CDR (crude death rate) Age specific death rates Age standardized death rates IMR (infant mortality rates) Cause specific death rates Life tables (most important scientific tool) Life expectancy Others… Survey based measures (individual responses) Self reported health status Whether in hospital within the last year Activity limitations How often see doctor Others… Hospital statistics Average hospital stay for patients Hospital morbidity rate Hospital mortality rate… **** each of these lead to aggregate indicators of population health Crude death rate CDR= (D/P) X1000 D= # of deaths in a specified time interval (e.g., one year) P= the mid-interval population (e.g., at mid year) 1000 is a constant note: CDR can also be expressed per person i.e., D/P relatively younger populations have lower crude deaths than older populations age composition can have an effect on crude death rate Midterm II Sociology 251 issues: mortality is age specific CDR is affected by….. Highly developed countries: high GDP; aging populations. CDRs higher than some LDCs! Less developed countries: low GDP; young populations Age-specific death rate Mx=(Dx/Px)x1000 Dx= deaths to age x within a specified interval (i.e., a year) Px= mid interval population aged x (e.g., at mid year) “U” and “J” shaped curves of mortality “U” shape: pre-transitional populations really poor countries pre-industrial population for example because infant mortality rate would be very high, then the death rate declines rapidly, then it goes up again rapidly “J” shape: post-transitional populations infant mortality rates are much much lower, and then the increase with increasing age, giving the graph a J shape. The Canadian case is much more consistent with the J shape Directly standardized death rate DSDR= (sigma*Mx*Px)/P Take age specific death rate of a studied population (low income) for example), apply those rates to a standard group (high income for example) aged x, then take the sum of those products and divide by the standard population total. Mx= age specific death rate of a study population Px= age specific population of the standard population P= total population of the standard Thus, the directly standardized death rate is the sum of the products divided by the standard population For example, you can use Canada as a standard (because the incomes are high, people well off) when figuring out the rates of Mexico (the study group) Midterm II Sociology 251 Measures of mortality (pt.III) Infant mortality rate (IMR) and its components Neonatal Early neonatal- deaths in the first week of life Late neonatal- deaths in the first month of life Post neonatal Deaths in the first year of life ** these components make up infant mortality IMR= ((no. of infant deaths)/(number of live births)) X1000 Usually computed for a given interval e.g., a year Perinatal mortality Involves the addition of late fetal deaths with early neonatal deaths Late fetal deaths (>28 weeks of gestation) + deaths in the first week of life (i.e., early neonatal) = perinatal mortality Perinatal mortality rate= ((number of fetal deaths + number of early neonatal deaths)/ (number of fetal deaths + live births)) X1000 Typically computed for a given interval Long term decline in infant mortality in Canada Overall decline in infant mortality rates Declines in neonatal and post neonatal mortality rates Post neonatal has dropped down lower than neonatal because we have become better at taking care of babies after their neonatal environment. While neonatal mortality rates have dropped, they haven’t dropped to the level of post neonatal rates because it is a situation where intervention is not in human control NMR: mostly “endogenous” causes (congenital anomalities) PNMR: mostly “exogenous” causes (related to quality of the socioeconomic environment) It was Bourgeois-Pichat who came up with this analysis (both) Can the NMR be lowered much beyond the current levels? Very low birth weight babies (<1,500 g): problem that is difficult to eliminate although we try to control it. Midterm II Sociology 251 Extremely low birth weight babies (<1,000g): even more difficult to control Many cant be saved, but progress in our natal intensive care units are very innovative Model supported by research (in high income countries) Poverty; low income Access to specialized pre-natal care- poor people have more difficulty accessing the system Low birth weight is associated with this Connected to neonatal mortality weights Also connected to post neonatal mortality Access to specialized post-natal care- poor people have more difficulty accessing the system Connected to post-neonatal mortality The socioeconomic environment Maternal nutrition Prenatal risks to fetus (smoking; abuse; excessive (chronic) stress*) Connected to post neonatal mortality Also connected to low birth weight less developed countries: there are more instances of intrauterine growth restriction leads to greater instances of low birth weight babies ;which leads to greater instances of infant mortality the life table* the life table is the simplest mathematical demography theory of age structure of a population, called a stationary population. The survival curve One of the most important tools in science and industry Scientific research (from biology to medicine to sociology) …. John Gaunt- first person to be known to come up with the life table Basic concept of the life table: It is a hypothetical population closed to migration Each year, in this population there are 100,000 births and deaths This renewal process goes on indefinitely Thus, the life table is a stable population that is also stationary Midterm II Sociology 251 Annually, in this populations Births=deaths CBR= CDR RNI-0 The life table can also be thought of as the death and survival experience of a hypothetical… The life table and real populations The age specific death rates (Mx values) is what generates the life table Actual Mx values of a real population (i.e., age sp
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