ECON 359 Study Guide - Midterm Guide: Aggregate Supply, Phillips Curve, Lucas Critique

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cyanwalrus367

25 Aug 2013

School

University of Calgary

Department

Economics

Course

ECON 359

Professor

Frank Atkins

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Document Summary

Suppose the economy was in recession at point1. If you"re a keynesian, you"re going to say that because prices are sticky we could stay there for a very long time. So, you can get us to point 3 using policy. However, if you believe in rational expectations you"re going to say that you can"t actually steer the economy to a point like point 3. You would need a tremendous amount of information that is simply no available to us. You would have to know things like: exactly where y* lies, even if you did know where y* is, you would need to know how to get to a point like point 2. Remember that underlying this model is a is/lm model. In order to be able to shift any of these curves you need to know parameters like sensitivity to the interest rate, money supply, etc.

Related Questions

1. Why Niall Ferguson thought that the expansionary fiscal policy (or government deficit) could produce crowding-out effect? You can explain by using the IS-LM model or you can use the logic of loanable funds theory

Answer: Ferguson believes that an increase in the government deficit could produce a crowding-out-effect. First, I will touch base on fiscal policy. Well, what is it? Basically, it adjusts the nationâs spending amount which increases the economyâs deficit to close a recessionary gap, which therefore increases the the demand for loans, meaning people want to borrow money. An increase in demand for loans leads to an increase in interest rates. Higher interest rates lead to a decrease in investment and interest-sensitive consumer spending, so both C and I decrease. Thatâs what the crowding-out-effect is, the decrease in investment due to higher interest rates.

>in Deficit = >in Demand for Loans = >in interest rates =

The government speeds up the economy by deficit spending, they crowd out consumers and investors with high interest rates. So what this means is that the government is attempting to help the economy but it is actually hurting the economy. The reason why I think Ferguson believes this is because of what he says in his debate at the New York Review of Books, that âyou canât be both a monetarist and a Keynesian simultaneouslyâat least I canât see how you can, because if the aim of the monetarist policy is to keep interest rates down, to keep liquidity high, the effect of the Keynesian policy must be to drive interest rates up.â He continues on in the interview to say that the Fed has minted out a fresh $1.75 billion in bonds and that no one is going to buy them. Driving up bonds will increase interest rates which increases mortgage rates which is why he basically doesnât agree with the Keynesian theory.

2. Why Paul Krugman thinks that Niall Ferguson was wrong and thought that government deficit could not produce a crowding-out effect? In other words, please explain Krugman's Liquidity trap .

Answer: To start I think Krugman believes that the Fiscal policy is effective. It is effective when the Liquidity-Money (LM) curve is horizontal. It creates the crowding in effect. The supply of money is constant so it creates money demanded to be interest inelastic, meaning it doesnât change. So if the government wishes to stimulate the economy, it leaves interest rates at a constant rate, and an increase in investment and saving, therefore helping the economy close the gap on a recession. There is an indifference between money and bonds so this makes fiscal policy effective. So then we get into a monetary expansion, meaning we have an increase in the money supply. Well with the liquidity trap, we get the case that the investment-savings (IS) curve is horizontal. So when the government increases the money supply, investment responds to rapidly changing interest rates, which would decrease the money demanded, making monetary policy effective. But the liquidity trap becomes apparent because interest rates cannot fall below zero percent. This is when monetary policy would become ineffective because interest rates arenât declining meaning investment wouldnât continue. Krugman in his blog basically argues this. He states âMost spectacularly, IS-LM turns out to be very useful for thinking about extreme conditions like the present, in which private demand has fallen so far that the economy remains depressed even at a zero interest rate.â He sums up his argument for the liquidity trap and explains his logic behind the investment-savings, liquidity-money curve, and that is why he disagrees with Ferguson.

3. In the discussion, other discussants such as George Soros and Robin Wells pointed out some interesting issues. Please provide at least one thing that you agree and one thing that you disagree. Discuss in details why you think so.

Answer: One thing I found interesting was George Soroâs point in the debate in the New York review of books. He states âThe other feature is that the financial system collapsed of its own weight. That contradicted the prevailing view about financial markets, namely that they tend toward equilibrium, and that equilibrium is disturbed by extraneous forces, outside shocks. Those disturbances were supposed to occur in a random fashion. Markets were seen basically as self-correcting. That paradigm has proven to be false. So we are dealing not only with the collapse of a financial system, but also with the collapse of a worldview.â He continues to mention how Obama has 2 problems he has to face and how people who are viewing this crisis the same as the previous financial crisis, are making a huge mistake. To explain he states this: âBut when you have a collapse of credit thereâs only one source of credit that is still credible, and thatâs the state: the Federal Reserve and the Treasury. Then you have actually to inject a lot more leverage and money into the economy; you have to print money as fast as you can, expand the balance sheet of the Federal Reserve, increase the national debt. And that is, in fact, what has been done, which is the right thing to do. But then once this policy is successful, you have to rein in the money supply as fast as you can.â I think Soro is agreeing with Krugman and the monetary policy of pumping money into the economy. It will raise the money supply which eventually is left for us to capitalize on supply and let our GDP. Now I find this interesting because he is also agreeing with Krugmanâs IS-LM model, and later on, we come to find out that even Ferguson had come to an agreement with Krugmanâs points, with the exception being that the United States was a powerhouse, and therefore the European Union would eventually see its downfall.

Please make comments to the answer of discussion I provided above(at least 300 words total). And you can start with "I agree with you on some points... But I disagree with you on some points".

The purpose behind much of advertising is to influence each of the five Consumer Decision Making process (Problem Recognition, Information Search, Evaluation of Alternatives, Product Choice (i.e. Purchase) and Outcomes (i.e. Postpurchase). Each stage of the Consumer Decision Making process has techniques that help consumers to manage the stage and then move onto the next one successfully. Eventually, the consumer moves to purchase (where we get excited to make the sale) but don't underestimate how important the last stage (post purchase) is to making additional sales in the future. Below are guidelines that show basic techiniques used to target and manipulate each Consumer Decision Stage through advertising.

Below are some issues that you will want to consider as you evaluate each of the five chosen advertisements. Please remember that your goal is not simply to answer these questions, but to provide insights into the consumerâs decision making process that you feel would be useful to a marketing manager (e.g., if an ad triggered the consumerâs decision to purchase the product). Other areas to comment on would be level of involvement, etc.

Consumer Decision Making Stage:	Considerations for Stage:	Common Ad Techniques:
Problem Recognition	What problems does this product solve for the consumer? â¢ What triggered the decision to purchase this product? â¢ Was this the first time the consumer purchased such a product? Define and discern the Actual and Desired States	Ask a question (Whatâs for dinner tonight?) Show before (actual state) and after (desired state) Use the word ânewâ or âintroducingâ to initiate curiosity.
Information Search	â¢ Did the consumer seek information about the product and about various brands? How was this information collected, and how much information was collected? â¢ Was the consumer searching for any advertisements for the product? What was the consumerâs reaction to these advertisements?	Match amount of information with type of product. Direct consumers to website, free kit or other information venues. Show role models that âlookâ like the target market. Show the entire line of product offerings (all the flavors and colors, etc.) Testimonials, etc.
Evaluation of Alternatives	â¢ How many alternatives were considered? How were they selected?â¢ What features and characteristics of the product were most important to the consumer? Salient and Determinant defined attributes. â¢ How important was the brand of the product to the consumer?	Featuring specific variables that the product is known for (ex. Volvo=Safety). This is known as âpositioningâ a product. Competitive method (brand compares themselves to âleading brand or categoryâ) Comparative method (brand compares themselves to another brand by name (Coke vs. Pepsi)
Product Choice	â¢ Did any other people play a role in the decision process? Describe theroles that each person played. â¢ How was the final choice determined? How carefully was the decision made? â¢ Where did the consumer make the purchase? Why? â¢ Did the consumer pay full price for the product?	Tell consumers where and how the product is sold. Offer many ways to pay for the product. Divide payments. Offer sales promotion (coupons, rebates)
Post-Purchase Evaluation	â¢ How is the product used and consumed? How does the consumer feel when he or she uses the product? â¢ What is the meaning of this product to the consumer? Does it merely serve a function for the consumer, or does it say something about who the consumer is? Does the Ad encourage repeat purchase or loyalty to the brand- how?	Show awards the brand has won. Show how a brand should be consumed. Allow consumers many ways to return the product. Allow consumers to easily provide feedback. Reward consumers loyalty

This assignment asks you to find one ad that addresses each of the needs of the five stages (in other words five different ads). This means that there must be five different ads for the total project, one for each stage (all ads are different from one another). Create a Power Point Presentation that shows how the advertiser is addressing the needs of the consumer for the specific Consumer Decision Making stage.

*Be aware that there is a helpful power point demonstration in a conference opened this week marked as "Advertising and the Consumer Decision Process (Ad Examples)". This is informative only and does not need to be commented on.

First, show the ad in a slide and then follow-up with a slide which explains (bullet form) why the ad slide targets the Consumer Decision Making process stage. ALL ADS MUST BE STILL ADS (NO VIDEOS or LINKS). Therefore the ad MUST be able to be copied and pasted within the power point slide (NO LINKS). Here is the format of the presentation:

Slide 1: Name, date

Slide 2: Problem Recognition Ad

Slide 3: Explanation why it addresses this stage

Slide 4: Information Search Ad

Slide 5: Explanation why it addresses this stage

Slide 6: Evaluation of Alternatives Ad

Slide 7: Explanation why it addresses this stage

Slide 8: Product Choice (Purchase) Ad

Slide 9: Explanation why it addresses this stage

Slide 10: Outcomes (Postpurchase) Ad

Slide 11: Explanation why it addresses this stage

Slide 12: Conclusion

In the conclusion of the slide presentation choose which ad is most effective (overall) and why.

Logistics Run Down:

-No more than 18 slides in length (includes cover page and bibliography)

-Include a cover page and bibliography of sources. Outside sources (esp. learning resources from weeks covered) are encouraged to be cited and used.

-Organize and utilize the headings given above.

-No more than 2 grammatical/spelling errors are allowed (please proof before submitting).

-Text is required to be in Times Roman, 12 pt font, double space the text.

- Keep voice in business third person. Do not include visuals in text analysis, if need to add create an appendix and refer your reader to such.

Need help revising, and recommendation for a conclusion.

Throughout this paper is my understanding of what I have learned in class chapters 1-4, expressing my understanding and opinions. Economics is the study of how we deal with scarce resources. Microeconomics specially deals with business in the home country exclusively. This type of economics affects small businesses in the home country only. On the other hand, macroeconomics concerns our national welfare concerning trade and international business.

I believe that many things affect our economy on a microeconomics level. Things such as our understanding of our country in reflection to the world are very important. That is why we study ourselves before we study the macroeconomic principle of the world. Understanding ourselves is what microeconomics teaches us. Working from the inside out. The world is a place where there are differences in our wants and what we get. That is what makes items scarce. That is what positive economics is. Positive economics deals with what is and what we have. The other type of economics is called normative statements. This deals with what we should receive instead of what is and deserved to some extent. It's our scarce resources that determine our allocation of resources and how we use our resources and time. This is where opportunity costs come in, giving up something to do something. A successful business or country never ignores opportunity costs. We must ensure that we have a comparative advantage instead of the absolute advantage. Our resources must be used to achieve maximum output. Comparative is met when we have fewer opportunity costs to make some certain products than the other person or entity.

My initial understanding was scarcity was oil potentially running out, but we have so much of it that you can always find more with techniques such as fracking. Now it's obvious to me, one of our most scarce resources is time. You cannot avoid the 8,760 hours in a year. I understand that people have unlimited wants but limited resources. Everything has a cost and we must make a choice as we don't have unlimited farms, factories workers, etc. scarcity forces choices and this ties in with opportunity cost, for every gun made, a theft from the hungry is made. The opportunity cost not being used to feed the poor, but to make guns. And I find it easy to understand no one can have everything choices must be made on benefits. If I'm going to school, imp giving up making cash, as I'm giving up money for an education, I value education more. Scarcity is also related to the invisible hand. As it's an achievement that leads free markets and capitalism through competition for scarce resources.

My understanding of the invisible hand is a person neither intends to promote public interest and does not know how much he is promoting it. Only intending on his own gain. Without being his intention a person can be lead by the invisible hand to do good for society by pursuing one's own self-interest. Going into equity and efficiency the invisible hand does ensure both equity and efficiency. People work in their selfish ways to maximize profit while also contributing to the economy as a whole. It can also be argued that as the invisible hand wants to ensure efficiency, it cannot guarantee efficiency, because it can fail to produce an efficient allocation of resources, which in turn lead to a market failure. It can also be argued that it can't guarantee equity because not everyone gets a fair price. The way I like to remember efficiency is with a real-life example, like a reduction in the number of workers needed to produce a particular good for a particular amount. Equity refers to the ownership interest in an asset, for example, if a person owns a house with a market value of $800,000 and owes $100,000 on the mortgage leaving a $700,000 equity in the home.

It can be predicted that if the price of beef increases - ceteris paribus-the quantity of beef demanded by buys will decrease. In other words, if the price of beef increases, then the quantity of beef increases, then the quantity of beef demanded will decrease because all things have to be equal. In-class lecture thought me all other things remaining the same. Economists use ceteris paribus to determine the effect of a factor when all other factors have been held the same and helps simplify the study and get a more refined data set.

Economists deal with many issues that pertain to assuring that both a countries domestic output is efficient and that there is an effective trade balance. This means that there are a balance and limit on the amount of imports. Also, this means home production must be able to meet export demands. There are many factors that affect the production of goods and their effect on shifting the production possibilities frontier. This involves evaluating every detail including knowing the products and any close substitutes and compliments. It also involves knowing how an action or other external force will affect demand. This is called price elasticity; Substitutes are products that can replace any given product or service. An example of this would be Coke and Pepsi. The presence of substitutes affects price elasticity because if there are other options, then any change to the price or quality of the product will cause a shift of the demand curve. O course, price is a huge reason why the demand for a product decreases or increases yet it doesn't shift the curve because of the price only. This price change will cause a domino effect that will end with the shifting of the demand curve because it will cause an increase or decrease in demand of the substitute good if the price change is either lower or higher respectively. This price change serves as a catalyst that will change people's desire to spend more money on a more expensive product and that will instead choose to buy the substitute good for cheaper or buy more of the desired product. The change in the price of actual products will not shift the demand curve yet the change of the price of substitutes will because it serves to change people's purchasing behavior. On the other hand, compliments serve to boost demand when there is a decrease in price. The use of complementary goods is dependent upon another product. An example of this would be hot dogs and buns. If the price of hotdogs decreases then, conversely, the demand for hot dog buns will increase because of this change in price. In this scenario, the decrease in price will cause a positive shift in the demand curve because of people's desire and willingness to buy more buns. This is an example of a demand shifter. There are a few other demand shifters. The shifters of the demand curve are changes in expectations, disposable income, price of substitute goods and complements, tastes and preferences, and population size and composition. Changes in income affect the demand curve because if income is lower then people tend to save any extra income instead of wasting it. Disposable income is minimized and spending is lower. This also causes people to see a perceived value of things and distinguishing between what is necessary and what is a relative luxury. The lower the income, the higher the saving and avoidance to spend. An example of this would be if someone needs to buy some medication and it is relatively expensive, that doesn't mean that someone won't buy the medication just because it is expensive. It is necessary. Other factors that contribute to spending and demand are having a price ceiling and price floor. Having a price ceiling is a limit on the price of the product this is a government-imposed idea that is meant to protect consumers from unfair pricing and other conditions that may be malicious or obscure. This affects demand because if there is a price ceiling there is a limit on profit on a unit-to-unit basis. The other factor is the price floor. This price floor was created to encourage competition and affect consumers' willingness to pay because sometimes this new price may be higher than the original price. This causes a negative impact on a product that has a less than wanted perceived value. Many factors contribute to economic prosperity and certainly do help assure that information is analyzed and implemented into an economic and business plan.

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ECON 359 Study Guide - Midterm Guide: Aggregate Supply, Phillips Curve, Lucas Critique

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