STAT443 Study Guide - Quiz Guide: Exponential Smoothing, Prediction Interval, Time Series

• School: University of Waterloo
• Department: Statistics
• Course: STAT443
• Professor: Diana Skrzydlo

Document Summary

Stat 443 fall 2016 assignment 1 solutions: the dataset nile built into r contains the ow rate of the nile river over a period of 100 years. (a) perform exponential smoothing on the data using the holtwinters command. Plot the data and smoothed ( tted) values, and provide the sse and alpha values. ## [1] 0. 2465579 plot(nile. es) d e t t i. Time (b) predict the next 5 values in the time series along with prediction intervals. Time (c) perform double exponential smoothing as in a) and b), and compare the results (smoothed values, smoothing parameters, sse, and predictions for the next 5 values). The line for double exponential smoothing seems to follow the data a little more closely and respond more quickly to changes in the mean. As a result the line is not as smooth. In terms of the parameters, alpha is much higher, again giving a more jagged line.