PSYC 217- Final Exam Guide - Comprehensive Notes for the exam ( 59 pages long!)
Document Summary
Probabilistic trend: more likely than not but does not hold true in all cases. Probabilistic prediction = numerical, real prediction (cannot be given with precision) (cid:862)pe(cid:396)so(cid:374)-who(cid:863) tatisti(cid:272)s: the(cid:396)e (cid:449)ill also (cid:271)e a (cid:862)pe(cid:396)so(cid:374) (cid:449)ho(cid:863) goes against the strongest of trends, eg. smoking some will smoke everyday and not get cancer; others do. Insufficient use of probabilistic information (cid:894)(cid:449)e do(cid:374)"t k(cid:374)o(cid:449) ho(cid:449) to use it(cid:895) Failure to use sample-size information (smaller samples will always generate more extreme values) sampling error (assuming that the smaller sample will represent a larger population) Ga(cid:373)(cid:271)le(cid:396)"s fallacy: tendency for ppl to see links b/w events in the past and future when the two are really independent we tend to see patterns. Explaining chance: illusory correlation & the illusion of control. Illusory correlation: (cid:449)he(cid:374) ppl thi(cid:374)k the(cid:455)"(cid:396)e seei(cid:374)g co-occurrences f(cid:396)e(cid:395)ue(cid:374)tl(cid:455) (cid:449)he(cid:374) the(cid:455)"(cid:396)e (cid:396)eall(cid:455) (cid:396)a(cid:374)do(cid:373) (they see structure where there is none) Illusion of control: tendency to believe that personal skills can affect outcomes determined by chance.
