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University of Toronto Mississauga
Kathleen Wong

Lecture 5 Climate change dataHow does the global surface temperature vary in the past 100 yearsit has fluctuated from below the 19601990 average from 05 in 1880 to 07 in 2000 overallthincreased by 06 02 Cover the 20 century 074 018 over 100 years 1906200512 of the 13 years from 1995 to 2007 rank amongst the 13 warmest years in the whole recordthwarming over the 20 century has not been uniform over the globeincreasing temperatures during the last few decades in the daily cycle of temperature minimum temperature have increased about twice as much as maximum temperaturesHow does the global surface temperature change in the past 1000 yearsthththe temperatures flunctuate with a Medieval warm Period from 11 for 14 century and a relatively cool thperiod little Ice Age associated with 1519 centuryHow does the global surface temperature change in the past million years Suns outputEarths orbit Drifting continents Volcanic eruptions Greenhouse gasesLecture 6 Climate change modelsWhat is modelingmodeling weather system is an indepth analysis of many different factors that affect climate and weathernumerical models of weather and climate are based on the fundamental mathematical equations that describe the physics and dynamics of the movements and processes taking place in the atmosphere the ocean the ice and on the land setting up a model of the atmosphere for a weather forecast requires a mathematical description of the way in which energy from the sun enters the atmosphere from above some being reflected by the surface or by clouds and some being absorbed at the surface on in the atmosphereWhy do we modelbecause it is the most effective tool we can use to predict the future climate change due to human activitiesHow do we modelat a major global weather forecasting centre data from many sources are collected and fed into the modelthis process is called initialisationnumerical models of the atmosphere contain descriptions in appropriate computer form and with necessary approximations of the basic dynamics and physics of the different components of the atmosphere and their interaction When a physical process is described in terms of an algorithm and simple parameters the process is said to have been parameterisedfor climate models to be successful they need to include adequate description of the feedbacksHow do we validate climate modelsthere are three way in which a comprehensive climate model can be tested1 it can be run for a number of years of simulated time and the climate generated by the model compared in detail to the current climate2 models can be compared against simulations of past climate when the distribution of key variables as substantially different from that at present3 it can be used to predict the effect of large perturbations on the climate such as occurs with volcanic eruptions and other natural occurrences
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