Review #6

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William Seager

PHL A10 - Exercise VI 1. What is the difference between prudential and evidential reasons for belief? The differences between prudential and evidential reasons for belief are argument from design might be a very weak inductive argument because the sample size for this inductive argument is zero. The argument that the universe is the product of intelligent design should be an induction, and to have an induction, extrapolation from a sample is necessary. A large number of other universes would have to be examined and if most of them were of intelligent design, then it can be concluded that this universe is also of intelligent design. However, this universe is the only universe mankind has experienced. Therefore, without a sample size, the argument becomes a weak inductive argument. 2. Consider this situation: you are rolling a single die and you get paid $1.20 if you roll either a 1, 2, 3 or 4 but you have to pay $1.50 if you roll a 5 or 6. What is the expected utility of this game? The expected utility of this game is the average payoff received, if the game was performed over and over again. There are 46 or 23 chances that you will receive $1.20 and 26 or 13 chances that you will pay $1.50. Therefore, to calculate the expected utility: ($1.20)(23) ($1.50)(13) = $0.80 $0.50 = $0.30. The expected utility of this game is $0.30. 3. What is doxastic voluntarims? Doxastic voluntarims states that a closed system will (with high probability) move from states of greater order to states of lesser order, an
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