Doing well out of war-COLLIER
•One extreme rebellion might arise because the rebels aspire to wealth through
capturing resources extra-legally.
•At the other extreme they might arise because rebels aspire to rid the nation, or the
group of people with which they identify, of an unjust regime.
•These two motivations obviously imply radically different types of policy intervention
if the international community wishes to promote the prospects of peace.
•While primary commodities are thus a good proxy for the lootable resources which
greed-motivated rebels would seek to capture, there are other factors likely to matter
for an economic agenda
•The willingness of young men to join a rebellion might be influenced by their other
•Grievance is focused on a lack of political rights
•Grievance focuses on government economic incompetence
•Some societies are much more prone to conflict than others, simply because they
offer more inviting economic prospects for rebellion.
•A society which is fully democratic is safer than one which is only partially
•Rebellions based purely on grievance face such severe collective action problems that
the basic theories of social science would predict that they are unlikely to occur, and
the empirical evidence supports this prediction.
•Civil war societies tend to become opportunistic. This will affect business practices,
so that some firms will thrive through sharp practices, while others become their
victims. Profit rates will therefore become more dispersed and increase for the
•Civil war; markets become disrupted
•The scope for rent-seeking predation on trade increases for rebels and may even
increase for government officials, as their actions become less open to scrutiny
•The costs of war appear to offer the potential for mutually beneficial peace
settlements, in practice peace will depend upon those groups which gain from peace
being more influential than those which gain from continued war.
•If an economy has a high absorptive capacity for aid then development assistance
can reduce the risk of conflict not just through increasing diversification but through
reducing poverty and increasing the growth rate.
•A civil war society tends to favour the opportunistic and the criminal, and to permit
the encroachment of monopoly. These characteristics persist after the conflict has
•Market integration can be promoted by deregulation, improved transport, and
improved market information
•Opportunism thrives on conflict
•Crime thrives on low detection and poor justice systems.
•The objective factors which might contribute to grievance, such as income and asset
inequality, ethnic and religious divisions, and political repression do not seem to