Making Sense of the Rise of China Lecture notes, 1st part of lecture that is required to know and be prepared for the 1st mid-term exam
ProfessorMichael Painter- Main
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EXAM will BE FOCUSED ON TODAYS lecture and NEXT LECTURE,
Lecture 9, November 22, 2010
Making Sense of the Rise of China: International Relations Theory and
For example cold war, something political science did not predict in the last century
Our theories tend to be predictive,
International Relation theory - state or country behaviour, why do they behave like that
- Uncertain realities,
Taiwan, Republic of China
De jure Chinese Province (by the letter of law)
De facto independent state
1996 missile crisis ( it launches few missiles, to give their heads up)
2005 Anti-Secession Law (if Taiwan to declare independence we will attack)
2010 Arms Procurement Bill (china and US have disputes, when US sells military and
missiles to Taiwan.
(Taiwan is in serious trouble, if they decide to launch missiles, this leads back to civil war in
china, Chinese communist party adn Chinese nationalist, were teh first republicans, the
communist win the civil war, which is the founding of communist government in china. The
nationalist, pro-democratic republics flew to Taiwan, in the cold war contects, the world
didn’t recogrnize communist china, but instead it recognized the nationalist republican of
Taiwan. As it happenz, china begins to create diplomatic relation with US. Which leads to
Taiwan lose a seat in UN nations. And it becomes tied with United States, and normalizes
with Canada, Taiwan is no longer a government. Taiwan loses its sovereighty, it is no longer
a recognized nation. Which coins Taiwan as a province of China.
Taiwan is democracy, it has its own election, it has its own taxes, its own government, it
functions as a state, but legally is not. China belive, Taiwan is the province of china, wat also
angers china , US signed the Taiwan relations act, as the US normalizes and accepts china as
sovereign act. Which says, US will defend Taiwan if it is ever attacked.
Some recognize that Taiwan is natural aircraft carrier, to put an aircraft base.
We don’t kno how china will react, will it ever attack Taiwan, we don’t know how the US
will react, when its so spread around in IRAQ and AFGHANITSAN, how will Taiwan will
react, will it keep its status QUO, there is great Uncertainty. One thing is Certain, Taiwan
wasn’t worried about its existence, it didn’t care until 1990s, but one thing we know, they
are Worried NOW, the rise of China, you have to take it seriously.
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Chinas rise is the cause of its economic Rise, being 2nd laregest economy in the world, and its
as a matter of time, until it becomes the largerst around the wolrd.
What we KNOW
2) HARD POWER – MILLITARY POWER
Active military personnel- 1.5:1 (PRC:US) (size of china’s military personell is 50%
more than America)
Land-based weapons – 1:1
Naval ships – 1:2
Defence spending – 1:8
Available military personnel- 5:1 (the number of soldiers 5 times greater than United
3) Soft Power- Influence
(they are putting alot of money in developing countries, showing that China cares)
(Cultural power that china poses, people are very intested, they want to see chinas
culture, more and more kids want to learn Chinese, cultural power that is being to take
step, the rise of china’s soft of power, causes to decline Americas power
4) America’s Decline
“China’s mix of economic engagement and soft power has spurred some fears that western
influence in developing regions will thereby by diminished.. Many Americans in particular are
concerned about losing strategic influence in Asia” Center for strategic and International Studies.
“There is really remarkable, rapid shift of power and influence from the US to China.. Today
china has not only a more vigorous economy, but actually a better functioning government that
the US” Geogre Soros, 2010
The key point, the rise of chains economy, the chains hard power and soft power and the decline
of Americas power, has serious implication to international system. Chinas rise and Americas
decline, is the transformation of the international system.
THE international System
Sovereighnty – Treaty of Westphalia ( we live in the world of borders, we live in the
system of states, it is this boreders taht demarkes the nations and countries, this nations
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