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RSM332 MidTerm Notes

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Rotman Commerce
Jennifer So

Capital Market Theory Lecture 1 Finance = process which individual investors and firms allocate resources over time by using financial assets Financial System  Households are primary provider of funds o Objective: allocate their income/savings to carious assets to maximize the utility of life- time consumption o Real Assets = o Financial Assets = o Liabilities [ex. Credit cards, car loans, mortgages] o Net Worth = asset – liabilities  Business & Gov  primary user of funds  Intermediaries – connection o Financial Intermediaries [ex. banks, insurance companies, pension funds, mutual funds] o Market Intermediaries [ex. investment dealers, brokers]  3 ways funds are moved: o Direct transfer = saver to borrower (non-market)  Problems: Search costs [finding person to lend], Double co-incidence of wants,  Contracting costs [contract to get $ back], Default [crook? Enforce contract?], Liquidity [want money early?], Asymmetric Information [adverse selection], Moral Hazard [change decision after] o Direct Intermediation = market based transaction through intermediary o Indirect Claims through a financial intermediary = financial intermediary takes funds from a saver and lend those funds off Financial Intermediaries  Banks o Take deposits and are “pooled” in the bank o Bank takes pooled funds and lends them to household/business as loans/mortgages o Transform original nature of savers money  able to perform b/c experts at risk assessment/financial contracting/monitoring activities  Deposit in small amounts with little risk  Loans/Mortgage: large sums, borrowed for long time, risky purpose  Insurance Companies o Sell policies & collect premiums (based on policy type and size + admin fees) o Invest premiums so that accumulated value in future will grow to meet anticipated claims  risk shared among all policy holders o Allows the household, business, gov to engage in risky activities  Pension Funds/Plans o Payments made over entire working life o Accumulated value in pension can be used by person in retirement o Managers collect funds to invest diverse portfolios o Major source of capital, fueling investment in R&D, capital equipment, resource exploration, and ultimately contribution in substantial way to growth in the economy  Mutual Funds o Give small investors access to diversified professionally-managed portfolios of securities o Called Denomination b/c mutual fund makes investments available in smaller, more affordable amounts of money Financial Instruments  Public Debt (government) & Private Debt (household, non-financial corporations)  Contracts = connect households to production side of the economy o Debt Instruments [ex. Commercial paper, banker acceptance, treasury bills, mortgage loans, bonds, debentures] o Equity Instruments [ex. Common stock, preferred stock]  Marketable Vs. Non-marketable o Characteristics of marketable securities: can be traded between or among investors after their original issue in public markets and before they mature or expire o Characteristic of Non-marketable securities: cannot be traded between or among investors, may be redeemable [ex. Saving account, term deposits, GIC, saving bonds] Market Capitalization = total market value of a company’s equity/stock shares  Money Market Securities = short-term debt securities that are pure discount notes *ex. Banker’s acceptances, commercial paper, treasury bills]  Capital Market Securities = long-term debt or equity securities with maturities > 1 year [ex. Bonds, debentures, common stock, preferred stock] Financial Markets  Primary Market = involves issue of new securities by the borrower in return for cash from investors [ex. IPO]  Secondary Market = involves buyers and sellers of existing securities, funds flow from buyer to seller (not capital formation occurs) o Exchanges or Auction Markets = involved bidding process at specific location [ex. TSX] o Dealer or Over the Counter (OTC) Markets = do not have physical location and consist of dealers who trade directly with one another [ex. Bond Market] o Money Markets and Bond market are global = domestic equity market Goals of Corporation  Shareholder wealth maximization is considered most appropriate to guide officers & directors, focuses on genuine profit, reflects into future (better than profit maximization b/c not focused on accounting profit, not short term gain.)  Conflict arises when stakeholders have differing goals  Direct Agency Costs = arise when suboptimal decision are made by manager when the act in a manner is the best for investors  Indirect Costs = incurred by corporation in attempt to avoid direct agency costs Lecture 2  Time value of money (TVM)  opportunity cost o Based on idea that money today ≠ to amount tom (b/c invest)  Moving money from future  to today = Discounting  Moving money from today  to future = Accumulating  Interest Rate = Discount Rate = Required Rate = cost of money (1+r)T Is known as the Future Value Factor 𝟏 𝟏 𝒓 𝑻 Is known as the Discount 𝐶 is negative b/c Factor it represent an investment ∑ Compound Interest  Simple Interest = is paid or received only on the initial investment amount (only 1 time period) o Annual interest  $1000 x 0.08 = $ 80 per year  Compound Interest = interest is added to amount then new interest calculated o Compound interest  $1000 X (1.08) = $1469 Re-arranged from: 𝐹𝑉𝑛 𝑃𝑉 𝑘 𝑛 Re-arranged from: 𝑛 𝐹𝑉𝑛 𝑃𝑉 𝑘 Annuities & Perpetuities  Annuity = financial instrument that pays income in a series of payments for the same amount over a regular interval o Ordinary Annuity = payment at end of the period  EX. Invest $500 at end of each year for next 4 years earn 10% each year. C = PMT = Answer: (using Future Value4 FV = Payment 500(1.1) + 500(1.1) + 500(1.1) + 500 = $2320.50 o Annuity Due = payment at the beginning of the period  Perpetuity = payments are infinite Relationship between Annuity Due & an Ordinary Annuity  Annuity due = ordinary annuity + 1 more period Perpetuities  Stream of cash flows that goes on forever C = periodic cash flow  [Ex. Common stock, preferred stock, consol bonds] R = discount rate Growing/Shrinking Annuities & Perpetuities  Grow/shrink at constant rate g each period  No longer have constant payment each period but constant growth rate PMT =1PMT (1+0) k = discount PMT = PMT (1+g) = PMT (1+g) 2 g = growth rate 2 1 0 3 PMT =3PMT (1+2) = PMT (1+g0 [ ( ) ]  Positive growth rates (g>0) yield growing annuities  Negative growth rates (g<0) yield shrinking annuities  Notice that if g=0, the above equation = present value of an ordinary annuity reffectiveeffective Compounding annual interest rate  Interest on interest rs= stated/quoted interest rate m = # of compounding Payment & Compounding Periods Differ periods  When number of payments per year is different from number of compounding periods per year then must calculate the interest rate per payment period reffectiveffective annual interest rate r stated or quoted interest rate s= m = # of corresponding periods per year f = the payment frequency per year Calculating Balance Outstanding Mortgages or Loans  Mortgage = a loan involving equal ‘blended’ payments (interest and principal) over a specified payment period o Term = the period for which investors can ‘lock in’ at a fixed rate o Amortization Period = period over which loan is to be repaid  Note: 1 payment more principle than interest, last payment more interest than principle  Calculating Monthly Payments: solve for C from ‘Balance O/S’ formula Loan Amortization = blended payment loan is repaid in equal periodic payments  Amount of principal and interest varies each period  Solve: [1] calculate annual payments solve for PMT (for below eqn) [2] calculate the balance O/S after the first year, solve for PV Lecture 3 Bonds  Fixed income security is a financial (and contractual) obligation of an entity that entitle the holders to receive a pre-determined stream of future cash flows  Failure to pay month payment or at maturity => default  Classified based on maturity: o Less than 1 yr => Bills or Paper o 1 yr < Maturity < 7 yrs => Notes o <7 yrs => Bonds  Characteristics: 1. Fixed face or par value, paid to holder of bond at maturity 2. A fixed coupon, which specifies the interest payable over the life of the bond (annual or semi-annual) 3. A fixed maturity date  Term-to-maturity: the time remaining to the bond’s maturity date  Coupon Rate: the annual % interest paid on the bond’s face value o o If coupon is paid 2 times a year, divide the annual coupon by 2  Valuation: o When same dollar amount of money received each period, the series of payments is called annuity (ie. Bond is another type of annuity) o Coupons paid in arrears = meaning although the dollar amount of the coupon payment may be known in advance it is paid at the end of the period [ ] o Bond’s market price is equal to the PV of its expected cash flows discounted (irr) at its yield to maturity ∑  P = price (in $), c = coupon payment, n = # of periods, t = time period when payment received, r = period interest rate  To adjust for semi-annual payment (annual  semi-annual) *change when question says semi- annual* 1. Size of coupon payment (divide by 2) 2. Number of periods (multiply by 2) 3. Yield-to-maturity (divide by 2)  Ex. Market price of 5 yrs, $1000 bond, 4% coupon, YTM is 6%  [answer: size coupon = 3%, number of periods = 10, YTM = 3%]  Yield measures your return if the bond is held to maturity o If sold before maturity could be possible Capital Gain or Capital Loss o Notes: if Interest rate ↓ = Bond price ↑ o Holding Period Return => answer gives % made or loss Capital Gains Yield + Income Yield = Holding Period Return  To find annualized rate of return during investment: 1. Find current price using bond valuation formula 2. Find purchase price using bond valuation formula 3. HPR = [Current Price + 2*(C*value)- Purchase Price] / Purchase Price 4. Square root HPR result subtract by 1  Above steps equals this formula [ ] Cash Vs. Quoted Price  Finding cash price of when given quoted price => difference is amount added onto the quoted price, it is paid to seller as he sold when extra # of days after last coupon payment Yield To Maturity (YTM) = interest rate that will make the PV of a bond’s cash flows equal to its market price + accrued interest (ie. Equal to irr)  Most popular measure used in the market  To find YTM must [1] determine expected cash flows [2]search by trial and error for the interest rate that will make the present value of cash flows equal to the market price (ie. Find irr)  Use bond valuation formula for many periods, use for few periods  Yield Spread = difference between YTM of 2 different rated bonds, it represents a default-risk premium investors demand for investing in more risky securities o Spread ↑ when pessimism increase in economy o Spread ↓during times of expansion Coupon – YTM Relationship  Relationship determines if bond will sell at a premium, discount or par o Discount rate > Coupon rate => sell bond at cheaper rate to compensate for cheaper rate [ Coupon rate < YTM, Price < Face Value  priced at discount] o Discount rate = Coupon rate => issue at par [Coupon Rate = YTM, Price = Face value  priced at Par] o Discount rate < Coupon rate => adjust bond price will be issued at premium [Coupon Rate > YTM, Price > Face Value  Priced at Premium]  Bonds always mature at par value [Bond = Face value @ maturity] Risk Premiums & Yield Spreads  Yield on bonds differ from the risk free rate b/c additional risk or features associated with those instruments  Relationship expressed as: (rf = risk free rate, spread required for default risk) Reasons for Yields  Default Risk higher this risk, the higher the required YTM o Risk of not being able to get $ at maturity o Covenants = conditions set before hand to reduce risk o Positive Covenants = things firm agrees to do [ex. Supply periodic financial statements, maintain ratios] o Negative Covenants = things firm agrees not to do [ex. Restrict amount of debt firm can take on, prevent firm form acquiring or disposing of assets] o Debt ratings: Investment Grade (AAA, AA, A, BBB), Junk/High Yield (BB, B, CCC, CC, D, Suspended)  Individual bond issues are rated, not issuers  6 factors in rating: core profitability, asset quality strategy & management strength, balance sheet strength, business strength, miscellaneous issues  Liquidity  lower the liquidity, higher the YTM o Bigger spread less liquid bond, more bonds issued more liquid o Traded OTC, meaning no central clearing system which make competition for sales higher o Means larger bid-ask spread a significant friction cost o Short-term & higher rated bonds have greater liquidity o Trading in the long-term debt of speculative companies can incur huge liquidity costs  Options & Other Embedded Features  increase or decrease YTM depending on benefit o Option favours lender, reduces risk premium o Option favours borrowers, increases risk premium o Call feature: allows the issuer to redeem or pay off the bond prior to maturity, usually at a premium o Retractable bonds: allows the holder to sell the bonds back to the issuer before maturity o Extendible bonds: allows the holder to extend the maturity of the bond o Convertible bonds: can be converted into common stock at a pre-determined conversion price Bps / o Sinking funds: funds set aside by the issuer to ensure the firm is able to redeem the 100 bond at maturity o Collateralized bonds: have physical assets pledged against the interest payments in the event of default  Yield spread compensate investors for taking additional risk The Price-Yield Relationship  Higher discount rate (YTM)is associated with a lower price  Prices set by supply/demand and YTM which is changing in response to changes in price  Bond prices fall as interest rates fall  interest rate risk is biggest risk affecting bondholders  Effects on Relationship 1. Longer maturity has more effect on yield when YTM changes  YTM ↓ = ↑ Price  [ex. Bond1 5 yrs, bond2 10 yrs, decrease 3% has larger increase on the 10yr] 2. Lower coupon rate the greater the impact  [ex. Has larger impact on zero coupon than 6%, 6% larger impact than 9%] 3. Increase % impact does not equal Decrease % impact [ie. not linear] Interest Rate Risk & Price Volatility  Sensitivity of bond prices to changes in interest rate is measure of bond’s interest rate risk  Return of a bond is a function of: o Coupon payments o Reinvestment income o Repayment of principal  Bond’s interest rate risk affected by: 1. Yield to maturity 2. Term to Maturity 3. Size of Coupon  Inverse relationship between price & yield maturity  Impact of coupon rate o the lower the coupon rate, the greater is the bond’s price sensitivity to changes in interest rates o the lower the current coupon payments the more you are dependent on the deferred repayment of principal to provide return o Implication: zero coupon bonds have more sensitivity to interest rate changes than bonds bearing a coupon rate and trading at the same yield  Impact of Term (maturity) o the longer the bond’s maturity, the greater is the bond’s price sensitivity to changes in interest rates (or the longer the duration)  Impact of the Yield to Maturity o The higher the YTM , the lower the price volatility o High yields translate into high current opportunity costs – those deferred coupon payments are not worth as much when yields are high Duration  Effect of 3 factors of interest rate risk  called Duration = measure change in bond price due to change in yield  When different coupon rate & maturity use this to find out which on is better  Duration higher: YTM lower, longer maturity, coupon lower  Approximating the % Price change of a bond with a change in interest rate 1. Macaulay Duration = weighted average maturity of the bond’s cash flows (coupon payments and principal) discounted to their present value)  gives us term expressed in years, weights are discounted cash flows in each period 2. Modified Duration = extension of Macaulay duration used to measure the expected % change in price of bind given 100bps (1%) change in yield  Finding duration of a complex portfolio of payments (single cash flow) 1. Find the PV of each year’s total payment 2. Divide by the portfolio’s total PV (weigh the payment) 3. Multiply it this by the time the payment is due. 4. Add them ∑ Duration/Price Relationship  To estimate the %
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