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Population Geography (Book).docx

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Geography 1100
D.Kim Holland

Population Geography Population Growth - Most analysts agree that future population growth will be found in ‘developing’ countries such as India - The ever-increasing population causes the potential for not enough world resources to support the population o The Earth is self-contained spaceship that has finite resources with an ever increasing population - Population grows only ONE way, birth rate > death rate Population Definitions - Rates: The frequency of the occurrence of an event during a given time frame for a designated population o Ex. The marriage rate as the number of marriages per 1000 people in the US - Cohort: Measures refer data to a population group unified by a specified common characteristic. o Ex. Age cohort of 1-5 years ,or the Grad ’12 class Birth Rates: The crude birth rate (CBR) is the annual number of live births per 1000 population. - Considered ‘crude’ because it measures birth rate without regard to the age or sex composition of the population o Stage of economic development correlates with the birth rate  Imperfect - Birth rate of countries varies due to sex composition, age, culture, religion, etc. - Birth rate > than 30 = High, found in agricultural and rural countries - Birth rate < than 18 = Low, found in industrialized urban countries - 18 < Birth rate < 30 = Transitional, found in newly industrialized and smaller developing countries Fertility Rates: The total fertility rate (TFR) is the average number of children a woman will have over the course of her childbearing years  More refined rate than CBR - TFR of 3 means that over the childbearing years, a woman will have 3 children on average - More useful measure for regional comparisons and predictive purposes because it minimizes the effects of fluctuation and population composition - Replacement level fertility the level of fertility at which each successive generation of women produces exactly enough children to ensure that the same number of women survive in the generation to have offspring themselves o This level is usually higher than the TFR due to the higher probability of having a boy o Higher the level of morality = higher the level of replacement o Currently at 2.1 - Dramatic fall of TFR by half, from 6 to 2.7, is because men and women in developing countries are marrying later and having fewer children - Fertility reflects cultural values not biological imperatives - Individual cultural projections based on current fertility rates may be inaccurate due to massive immigration movements Death Rates: Crude death rate (CDR), also called the mortality rate, is calculated by the number of deaths per 1000 people. - Is crude because doesn’t take into account the population. I.e. Sweden has a higher old population, therefore will have a higher CDR compared to countries with a high proportion of young people. - To overcome lack of comparability, death rates can be calculated for specific age groups - Ex. Infant Mortality rate: The ratio of deaths of infants age 1 year or younger per 1000 live births o Greatest decline in mortality for infants has resulted in the decline of the general death rate o 200 years ago, wasn’t uncommon for an IMR rate to be 200 to 300. - Chief cause of death in underdeveloped and impoverished areas are AIDS / HIV, diseases such as malaria, cholera, diarrhea st o South Africa the life expectancy of a baby born in the 21 century should have been 66, but AIDS cut that down to 47 - Zero Population Growth: Immigration + Birth rates = Death rates + Emigration Population Pyramids: A graphic device that represents a population’s age and sex composition. - Called pyramid because when originally created, a broad base of younger age groups and a progressive narrowing toward the apex of older population were thinned by death  MANY different shapes today - Rapid growth  Looks like a pyramid (large young population, smaller old population) - Slow Growth  Almost vertical Sides - Population profile provides implications for what a country’s population needs o Ex. Young population needs more education services - Dependency ratio: A simple measure of the number of economic dependents, old or young that each 100 people in the productive years (15 – 64 years) must support. Natural Increase and Doubling times: Knowledge of a country’s age and sex distributions enables demographers to forecast its future population levels - Ex. Country with a high proportion of young people will experience a high rate of natural increase - Rate of Natural Increase of a population is derived by CBR – CDR o Natural means that increases or decreases due to migration are not included o Ex. CBR of 22, CDR of 12, Rate of Natural Increase = 10 - Rate of Natural Increase can be related to Doubling Time, the time it takes for a population to double o Calculated by 70 / Annual % increase in population o Ex. Annual % Increase = 2, Doubling time = 35 years o J-Curve an exponential function o Doubling time may vary when you only take the ‘natural’ rate (no immigration) VS the ‘overall’ growth rate (including immigration) Demographic Transition - Demographic Transition Model: Traces the changing levels of human fertility and mortality presumably associated with industrialization and urbanization. Over time the model assumes high birth and death rates will gradually become low birth and death rates. o First stage of that replacement process is characterized by high birth rates and high but fluctuating death rates The Western Experience - This model was created to explain the population history of Western Europe - Second stage of transition model is associated with the modernizing consequences of the industrialization of Europe - Rapidly rising population during second demographic stage results in dramatic increases in life expectancy  causes falling death rates because of increase in medical processes - Birth rates do not fall as quickly as death rates because birth rates are ingrained in culture - Third stage occurs when birth rates decline as people begin to control family size o When birth rate falls and death rate remains the same, population size begins to level off o Children are seen as liabilities rather than assets - Fourth Stage is characterized by very low birth rates and death rates
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