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Geography 2143A/B
Milford Green

Quiz 6 Notes Fertility and living standards: Go forth and multiply a lot less  low fertility changing world for better  fertility rate of half world will be < or = 2.1 = replacement level of fertility  in Russia, Japan, Brazil, Indonesia, China, south India  RLF changing traditional family life by enabling females in the workforce, increasing child education  fertility rate NOT same as birth rate  # of children woman likely to have in her childbearing years (15-49)  2 parents replaced by 2 children  daughter may die before childbearing years, so RLF must account for early death  child mortality higher in poor countries… RLF higher  rich countries: 2.1 VS poor countries: > 3.0  global average: 2.33  2020: actual fertility rate will be < global RLF  Malthusians believe high population accounts for drop in fertility  absolute population is all that matters  population is on the rise, expected to increase by 2.4 billion over next 40 years  population inertia: population rises as fertility declines  population will rise from 6.8 billion to 9.2 billion in 2050… and stabilize  1950-2000: fertility rate in developing countries halved from 6 to 3  fertility dropped more in every SE Asian country than it did in Japan  Iran’s drop in fertility  1979: mullah government reform, pushed for family growth  1984: reached 7  2006: fell to 1.9  antigovernment protests attributed to stark difference of opinion between 2 very different groups— 15-29 year-olds making up 1/3 of Iranian population VS traditionalists and the regime  poor families reproduce to assist in labour, food production  wealth linked to fertility, disparity seen within country among cities  Indonesia: one birth reduces by fifth the likelihood of mother holding job  wealth and lower fertility go hand in hand  some countries: poor women have same # of children as rich women  ppl in poor countries want fewer children  unplanned pregnancies responsible for discrepancy in wanted vs actual # children  women want one less child than they are having  contraceptive use in Latin America, East Asia 4X > than in Africa  female education curbing fertility  China’s one-child policy has successfully reduced its population  20m vs 40m entering workforce per year, less pollution  high living standards reduce fertility and low fertility improves living standards  reducing fertility rate can improve economy  more working ppl, fewer children and seniors  low dependency ratio  population switch from high fertilitylow fertility produces Goldilocks generation  low fertility… few children  high mortality… few grandparents  excess of working-age adults  happened in Europe after baby boom of 1945-1965  happening now in Asia, Latin America  David Bloom of Public Health at Harvard: “demographic dividend” accounted for 1/3 of East Asian growth in 1965-1990  low fertility supports more accumulation of capital per head  world might have enough ppl to boost growth but too many for the environment  curb pollution, make growth less resource-intensive instead of trying to control population directly The Demographic Transition-More or Less -population is supposed to level out at a bit over 10 billion by the end of the century -2 reproductive strategies (according to circumstances) 1. r-selectionproduce a lot of offspring but invest a little in them (high infant mortality) 2. k-selection have a few offspring but nurture them. (produce more grandkids) -demographic transition is a shift from r-type to k-type behaviour -Sweden-Uppsala Birth Cohort-14000 Swedish ppl born between1915-1929 -raw data: income, SES, how many children were born to the cohort and their descendents -r/k interpretation-rate of reproduction and the carrying capacity of the environment -privileges show up in succeeding generations but in a non-evolutionary way (reproduction) -explanation: -the psychology which encouraged k-type behaviour is not appropriate in modern circumstances -better hygiene, nutrition, and medicine, and free education, no harem- formation are all changed now-disadvantages of r-selected have disappeared Seven Brothers- An aversion to having daughters is leading to millions of missing girls -Sakina was dumped in Kotla, a village on the wheat plains south of Delhi -the man paid 5000 rupees ($100) to a dalal (a broker) -paro-female outsider in Haryana -she had 9 children-8 of them boys -the normal sex ratio for kids 0-6 is 952:1000 (girls:boys) -India: 945 (1991) 927 (2001) 914 (now) -fast growth, urbanisation, and increasing literacy rates have not affected this trend -the ratio is most distorted in the northern Gangetic Plain-such as Punjab -sex ratio worst in Punjab -Haryana (direst)-830:1000 -worsening sex ratios in all but 8/35 Indian states and territories -revealing the sex of the fetus is illegal but hard to enforce and ppl do it for as little as 600 rupees -Implications: -as Indians are becoming richer, dowries are spreading to places that weren’t practiced before (such as Kerala and Tamil Nadu) and they are becoming more lavish -encourages abuse, such as trafficking -increasing number of poor bachelors they are sometimes abused -Some positive points: -sex selection may slowly be turning around. It is worsening but slower. (1.9% to 1.5%) -sample surveys show a different pattern than the 10 year census (increasing ratio of girls to guys) but this might be misleading -worries that the sex ratios will become as bad as China (833:1000) Natural gas rocks the energy world  fracking technology makes natural gas reserves in shale deposits more accessible  increased accessibility, rising production, falling cost of natural gas  US switch from coal to natural gas for electric generation  careful regulation of fracking needed to address environmental concerns  water contamination, insufficient water treatment facilities, harmful air emissions, lack of regulatory environmental enforcement Daniel Yergin: The Real Stimulus: Low-cost natural gas  predicted that US would become major natural gas importer… NOT TRUE  hydraulic fra
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