Biz & Gov Exam Notes.docx

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Western University
Political Science
Political Science 2211E
Adam Harmes

Business & Government Exam Study Notes The Science of Election Campaign Strategies Key concepts: Political triage, political marketing, air war, ground war Video: Winning the Presidency - Series of moments is more important than whose ideas are better - Use of images, pictures, show emotions o Hilary Clinton’s tears moved 11 points in one day, authenticity shows that she’s a human too - Phone calls, robot calls, advertising - Ads are used to instigate emotions to get people to vote - Intellectual argument vs. emotional argument - Consultants ignore 40 out of 50 states o Focus on specific states where people vote - Height of the podiums - Appearance matters in politics - Replicate famous debate moments - Pivot questions from reporters - Confidence > competence - Subconscious > facts - Baby kissing - Who sits behind the president is important Lecture: The Science of Election Campaigns Topics: 1. Basics of campaign strategy 2. Key components of an election campaign Campaign strategy - Political triage: medical term, treat who needs the most help first o Divide voters into 3 political categories  Your base voters (less focus)  Opponent’s base voters (ignore)  Swing voters (target) - Proportional representation: seats in parliament allocated based on percentage of each popular vote o 30% of votes = 30% of seats o US president needs more than 50% to win an election - First past the post: most votes per riding wins the seat o US and Canada o Need voters concentrated in ridings Political Triage in First Past the Post - 2 step process o Identify base and swing ridings  Target suburbs (swing voters)  Toronto (Liberal and NDP)  Rural (conservative) o Identify base and swing voters in swing ridings  Demographic profiling  Identify characteristics of voters who do or might support you • Old, white male = conservative  Target marketing  Use surveys, opinion polls - Parties can create profiles of different groups of swing voters o 905 voters, Tim Horton’s crowd = middle class o Demographic targeting ~ GPS system o Data mining correlations  If you subscribe to guns magazine, you live in a rural area  Putting beers next to diapers = impulse buys  Air miles = data mining company Political Marketing - Growing use of techniques from consumer marketing - Growth of political consultants - Sales: have a product and then sell it to all - Marketing: Customizing products to groups of consumers - Political marketing: Customize politics to groups of voters - Generate feedback to make product changes Boutique Politics - Single issued policies - Designed to appeal to self-interest - Target specific group of swing voters o Home renovation tax credit targeting young families o Child tax credit targeting families o Creating policies to target specific groups Red Meat Policies - Policies further to right or left - Appeal to party’s base voters - Motivate base to vote, volunteer and donate o Conservatives propose to abolish the CBC o Obama proposing same sex marriage - These policies apply to a country with close to a 50/50 split vote for parties Wedge Issue Policies - Emotional issues to motivate your base and split opposition - Social/cultural issues - Get voters to vote based on a single issue o French language issues by NDP to get Quebecois to vote o Muslim and Jewish issues o Conservatives being pro-Israeli Branding - Focus on company image rather than specific products - Emphasize emotion rather than facts - Lifestyle marketing: associate products with an image/lifestyle - Nike = marketing machine Political Branding - Focus on party image rather than policy issues - Target low information voters - Focus on party leaders and their qualities - Use attack ads to define opponent o Justin Trudeau as under qualified - Positive ads to define own leader o Stephen Harper with cats and sweater vest - Focus groups and makeovers Components of an Election Campaign 1. Air war 2. Ground war 3. Cyber war Air War - Conducted by the national level campaign - Main purpose is to persuade swing voters and motivate base voters - Paid advertising: attack ads to define opponent, positive ads to sell the leader o Guided by political triage and demographic profiling - Advertise to target specific voters in swing ridings - Microtargetting through direct mail - Leader’s tour: speeches, announcements, media events, generate “earned media” (free media, not paid) - Leader’s debate: emphasis on leader, leaders prep in mock up sets - Rapid response war rooms: strategists, research and communications, staff, media studios provide immediate reactions to media to respond to opponents, issue texts, tweet to journalists to help them write stories, respond to opponents in real time, conduct opposition research using old quotes and scandals Ground War - Focus on organizing at the riding level - Main purpose to locate specific voters - GOTV = get one to vote - Call and visit supporters, drive them to polls - Fundraising, volunteers and lawn signs - Direct voter contact program: use large voter databases, CIMS, Liberalist - Identify voters via calling, door to door, direct mail surveys, demographic profiling Reading: Triage and the Concentration of Resources – Thomas Flanagan - Effective campaign strategy means relying on a clear process of triage to determine which ridings and demographic groups are safe, hopeless or on the cusp in the upcoming election - Political campaign: attempt to mobilize a coalition of people to vote in support of a candidate - Must use persuasion to mobilize supporters - The institutional setting: arrangement of political institutions o Winning a Canadian election requires hundreds of local campaigns in geographically defined electoral districts o Electing an American senate is essentially a cattle drive within one large jurisdiction, victory comes from finding as many supporters as possible, regardless of their location - Regulatory framework: Japan forbids internet campaigning while Canada accepts all methods of communication though there are limits on the amount of $ spent Strategy for political parties in Canadian elections 1. Multiple electoral districts 2. First past the post electoral system 3. No restriction on means of communication 4. Global cap on campaign spending Party’s goals and objectives - Form a majority/minority government - Become the official opposition - Become a recognized party (min. of 12 seats at federal level) - Elect one member to the legislature - Get enough votes to receive government funding (min. 2% at federal level) Defining a geographic coalition - Winning an election = winning more seats o Seats that are safe for your party o Battleground ridings that could go either way o Seats that are hopeless for your party - Star candidates: well known to the public (celebrity politics) - Concentration of resources o Transferring extra $ from the national party to the targeted ridings o Offering organizational assistance by sending in experienced campaigners o Tilting the media buy so that ads are heavier in targeted ridings o Scheduling more visits from the leader’s tour during the writ period of the campaign o Arranging a direct voter contact program SWOT - Tool in establishing the major theme of a campaign - SWOT = strengths, weaknesses, opportunities and threats - Group of strategists review the situation from the POV of their major opponent Permanent Campaign - Voter identification linked to fundraising goes on 364 days a year - Parties spend on advertising year in advance of he writ - Train candidates and workers - Prepare years before an anticipated election - Concentrate resources on swing ridings and target demographic groups where the election will be won or lost - Sell the party to the public on an ongoing basis Reading: The Evolution of the Party Pitch – Susan Delacourt and Alex Marland - Retail politician: when a politician connects with voters - In political business, marketing is what happens when the product shapes itself around the consumer’s demands o Attempt to give people what they want before they know they want it - Election date = opportunity to buy a political product, rest of the time = political opinion research is conduct a customer satisfaction survey Product Oriented Party (POP) - Attracts people who share similar ideologies - Minimal self promotion - Relies on like minded people - Libertarian, marijuana, Marxist-Leninst organizations Sales Oriented Party (SOP) - Structured and use of promotional activities to communicate what they have to offer - Network of sale professionals knocking on doors and phoning electors to identify supporters - Emphasis on media relations - Use targeted mailing campaigns - Bloc Quebecois, NDP, Reform and Green party Marketing Oriented Party (MOP) - Demonstrates ideological flexibility and willingness to change leadership - Likely to have broad support - Largest number of possible supporters Canadian & US Political Systems Key concepts: The executive, the legislature, the judiciary and political parties Lecture: The Canadian and US Political Systems Topics: 1. Key institutions in Canadian and US systems 2. Recent trends in the Canadian political system 3 Components of Political Systems - Legislature: legislates by passing policies and laws - Executive: governs by initiating and enforcing policies and laws - Judiciary: interprets policy and laws to settle disputes Legislature in Canada: Parliament of Canada - Bicameral, two house institution - Senate: appointed by the PM, upper house - House of Commons: elected members, lower house Legislature in US: Congress - House of representatives: congressmen elected every 2 years - Senate: senators elected for 6 years terms (1/3 elected every 2 years), similar to upper house, 100 senators – 2 per state Canada: Functions of the Legislature - Pass laws and policies based on majority of votes - Whipped votes: PM enforces whole party to vote the same way - Confidence votes: having confidence in your PM - Free votes: PM tells people to vote normally - Have input on legislation via committees o Review legislation, hold hearings and recommend changes - Question period to question the executive Canada: Functions of the Executive - Initiates and enforces laws and policies - Includes the crown, PM, cabinet, bureaucracy - Crown o Queen is the official head of state, represented by the governor general - Appointed by the PM - Ceremonial position, reads throne speech - Prime minister o Leader of the majority party o Elected leader by the party o Appoints ministers, senators, ambassadors and judges o Assisted by political staff - Cabinet o Ministers responsible for a department o Ministers are elected, members of parliament are appointed to the cabinet by the PM o Assisted by parliamentary secretary - Bureaucracy o Civil servants employed by the government o Led by deputy ministers o Provides technical advice and implements policy Canada: Functions of the Judiciary - Settle disputes over policies and laws - Judicial review: to rule on the constitutionality of laws o Federal vs. provincial division of powers o Charter of rights and freedoms - Notwithstanding clause: strike down unconstitutional laws, just in case scenario US: Functions of the Executive - Separate from the legislature - White House vs. Congress - President is elected directly - Cabinet is appointed by the president US Elections - General election every 4 years o President, house of commons and 1/3 of the senate - Mid term election o House and another 1/3 of the senate US Primaries - State by state elections held by each party to select their nominee for president - Campaign starts a year before general election Canadian Elections - Some provinces have fixed election dates every 4 years - PM with majority can call an election anytime within 5 years - In a minority, election occurs when opposition votes against government in a confidence vote Reading: The Rise of Court Government – David Savoie - Court government: power in Canadian government is being centralized, power to the prime ministers office - Issue: power is in the hands of the PM and a small group of selected courtiers rather than the PM working with elected cabinet colleagues The Permanent Campaign - Parties campaign between elections - Use science of politics techniques to sell policies to the public - Trial balloon: government leaks out policy idea to see what public thinks o If public opposes, they can deny they were considering it - Create a crisis o Find a problem to justify your policy - Changing the channel o Talk about something else to direct the issue o Use this technique when you can’t win an argument Reading: Democratic deficit in Canadian legislatures and executives? – Jonathan Mallow - Issue: power relations between parliament, cabinet and PM - Federal leader is the PM - Provincial and territorial leaders are premiers - US has a system of separation of powers o President and Congress are often at odds, do not sit in the same legislative body - If governments lose a vote of confidence, they are expected to resign and an election is almost always called - House of Commons = heart of the Canadian political system o Must approve all federal laws o Serve as the central forum to scrutinize the federal government and hold them accountable o 308 members of parliament, each elected from a geographical area in Canada o Senate = 105 members, appointed until age 75 o Legislatures have little power  Dominated by the governing party  Democratic deficit - Trustee model: legislators use their own best judgement to decide what is best - Delegate model: vote the way their constituents tell them to - Party discipline: elected party members will vote with their party - Party whip: senior member appointed by the party leader Problems with the Senate - Have trouble asserting legitimacy o Senators are appointed for life o Alleged laziness and inattention o Spend lots of time examining bills and conducting investigations - Legislations passed in the HOC must be approved by the senate and vice versa - Members are appointed by the PM without consultation from other members or parties 4 ways to reduce growing concentration of power in government 1. Reduced party discipline o Legislators should be given more freedom to vote according to their own conscience 2. Electoral reform o Creating a system that awards seats more than votes would create legislatures with fewer majority governments and more minor parties, reduce overall power of first ministers o Proportional representation: give greater powers to party leaders since they control the priority lists for electing members o Reform fixed election dates 3. Senate reform o Senators be more independent of their party and act as representatives of their region which could help pass legislation through parliament 4. Citizen engagement o Incorporating citizens more direct in the process of government, sharing information and decision making over policies and programs The Liberal – Neoliberal Approach to Economic Policy Key concepts: classical economic liberalist, neoliberalism Lecture: Liberal – Neoliberal approach Classical economic liberalism - Original free market approach to economic policy - Decentralized economic decision making by firms and consumers rather than the government - More efficient than centralized command economy Adam Smith - Father of classical economic liberalism - Wealth of Nations 1776 - Invisible hand of market forces would automatically coordinate decentralized decisions - Efficient allocation of resources - Everyone focuses on their own self interests which will be better for society as a whole Alfred Marshall - Principles of Economics 1890 - Created neo-classical economic liberalism - Formalized the invisible hand based on laws of supply and demand and price signals - More demand than supply = prices rise - Less demand than supply = prices fall Weekend Demand for gas  Gas prices  Oil spill Supply  Gas prices  Price Signals - Supply and demand determines prices - Prices then send signals to producers and consumers - Free markets react to change automatically - Price signals = invisible hand Government policy - Night watchman state or minimalist state o Government should be like a night watchman, as little government as possible - Intervention in the economy kept to a minimum to let the invisible hand work - Governments should only protect private property, enforce contracts and provide national defence Benefits of a Free Market System - Automatically coordinates supply and demand - Stimulates innovation - Automatically self corrects problems - Decentralization of power Reduce to clear - Used for products with low demand - Lower price until consumers are willing to buy - Market automatically clears excess supply High unemployment - Too much supply of workers relative to demand - Lower wages cause employers to hire Problem with government intervention - Disrupts free market - Minimum wage prevents workers from lowering wage demands - Unemployment fails to self correct Neoliberalism - Contemporary branch of the free market approach - Classical liberalism was dominant from 1800s until the Great Depression - After the depression, government intervention became more dominant - Neoliberalism was an attempt to revive the free market approach - Property rights in charters of bills of rights - Balanced budget amendment (governments can’t borrow and spend money) - Referendums for tax increases Friedrich Hayek - Father of neoliberalism - Austrian economist 1940s - Won Nobel Prize in economics - Austrian school Milton Friedman - 1960 to 1970 - Won Nobel Prize in economics - Chicago school Differences between liberalism and neoliberalism - Emphasis on freedom rather than efficiency o Willing to sacrifice some efficiency to preserve freedom - More orthodox in desire to limit government intervention o Lower taxes o Less social spending o Less regulation - Lock in free market policies through constitutional provisions o James Buchanan o Constitutional economics o Nobel Prize Constitutions - Constrain governments - Courts have power of judicial review - Can declare laws as unconstitutional Supply side economics - More populist, less academic version of neoliberalism, trickle down economics - When a tax rate rises past a certain point, revenues will decline (lower taxes = more rev) - Policies that benefit the supply side (business) rather than demand side (consumers) - Focused on cutting taxes and regulations on businesses - The Latter Curve (see below) Revenue Maximum revenue Generated Tax Rate Terminology - Classic liberalism = Adam Smith 1776 - Neoclassical liberalism = Alfred Marshall 1890 - Neoliberalism = Hayek, Friedman and Buchanan post WWI (1918) - Neoconservative = neoliberal - Liberal = Keynesian welfare - Laissez faire/supply side = neoliberal Reading: Liberal Political Economy – Michael Howlett, Alex Netherton and M. Ramesh Post-Keynesian Economics - Economic success of Japan is cited by post-Keynesians as proof that capitalist economies need state guidance - Argument that the problems of advance capitalism require more state intervention - Rise of large corporations and trade unions, the market will not self-correct - Post Keynesians say that market power of a producer and labour determine prices and wages, not the forces of demand and supply - Manipulation by corporations and trade unions = source of economic problems - Inflation = excessive wage increases - Need industrial and labour market policies o Formal cooperation among state, business and labour to identify industries of the future and directly invest towards those industries o Public subsidies for corporate research and development o Retraining workers to equip them to work in growing new industries - Evolutionary economics o Role of technological advancement in economic growth o Complex interactions between governments, universities and corporations lead to technological and economic development State in Liberal Theory - Supplementary or residual state: state should only undertake activities, such as provision of pure public goods, that markets cannot perform - Corrective state: state can act in a variety of other areas of market activity to correct micro or macro level failures - State is not to be constrained by society in which it exists or by its organizational capacity - It is assumed that the state, out of concern for economic efficiency, can and will act to provide goods and services or to correct market failures The Keynesian-Welfare Approach to Economic Policy Key concepts: Origins of the approach, rationales for government intervention Lecture: Keynesian-Welfare Approach Origins of the KW approach - Advocates for greater government intervention to correct market failures - Inefficient allocation of resources = market failure Market Failures - When free markets don’t work the way they’re supposed to - Creates a problem that cannot be fixed on it’s own - Creates rationale for intervention to correct failure Keynesian Welfare - Make markets more fair by reducing inequality and deal with social problems - Efficiency and social justice Branches of Economics - Microeconomics: focuses on producers and consumers and individual products - Macroeconomics: focus on the economy as a whole Welfare Economics - Arthur Pigou’s Economics of Welfare 1920 o About welfare society as a whole, not just programs - Market system was most efficient but subject to failures - Prices don’t reflect the products true value o Sends false signals to producers o Can lead to over supply of bad products or undersupply of good products - Use taxes and subsidies to make prices reflect the true cost of a product - Invented taxes to influence behaviour - Subsidize things society wants (i.e. education) Keynesian Economics - John Maynard Keynes’s General Theory of Employment, Interest and Money 1936 - Focus on the market failures at the macroeconomic level - Free market theory treated people like products - High unemployment and drastic wage cuts led to a political revolution - Prompted government stimulus to boost spending, sales and hiring Recession - Stock or housing market crash - Creates a vicious cycle of 1) falling confidence 2) less spending 3) bankruptcies and unemployment Free Market Economics - High unemployment will self correct - Unemployment forces workers to lower wage demands - Employers then hire - Only government intervention prevents lowering of wages Great Depression - Wages didn’t fall and unemployment didn’t self correct as the free market theory predicted - Little government intervention and unions Keynesian Welfare Economics - Paul Samuelson merged Keynesian macro with welfare micro - Market was the best system but government is needed to correct market failures - Led to rationale for government intervention High unemployment - Use stimulus to fight recessions - Use stimulus outside recessions to keep unemployment very low Negative externalities - Costs not incorporated into the price of a product (i.e. pollution) - Externalizes the cost onto others who have to pay for the clean up - Inefficient as costs of prevention are often cheaper than clean up - Market failure will never self correct because firms have no incentive to pay for prevention - Tax on pollution creates incentive to reduce pollution - Internalizes cost make supply and demand work again Public goods - Goods and services that government must provide because the market won’t or can’t - Must be non rival and non excludable - Consumption does not use up a good or service - Cake = rival good - Streetlight = non rival good - No effective way to prevent people from using a good or service even if they haven’t paid = free rider problem - Only governments can force payment via taxes - Pay for a good rather than provide it Monopolies - Monopoly = 1 seller - Oligopoly = few sellers - Monopsony = 1 buyer - Market failures emerge naturally and limit competition - Problems o Hurts consumers through high prices and poor services o Less incentive to innovate o Concentration of power (economic power and political influence) o Too big to fail creating the domino effect, forces government to bail out companies Government remedies for monopolies - Regulation o Prices and risk taking - Break up o Competitiveness, too small to matter - Nationalize Asymmetric info - One party to transaction has more info than another party (i.e. used cars, food content) - Creates rationale for transparency, labelling and other regulations Social goods - Problems can emerge even when free market works as it’s supposed to - Inequality, lack of worker rights and homelessness Reading: Benefits and Costs of Government Intervention – Richard Lipsey Causes of Government Failure - Causes of government failure are inherent in government institutions, just like the causes of market failure come from the nature of markets - Failure is an inescapable cost of democratic decision making 1. Inefficient public choices o One vote per person is inefficient because it fails to take into account the intensity of preferences 2. Special interests o Institutions of representative democracy tend to be responsive to benefits that focus on particular groups o Latter groups have no political power (rent control benefits existing tenants at the expense of future potential tenants) 3. Governments as monopolists o Governments face organizational problems just like corporations o They use rigid rules thus respond slowly to change o When tech changes, codes lag behind 4. Principal agent problems o Possibility of a hostile takeover is very weak as applied to bureaucracies o Principal in the case of government is all of its citizens will be unable to agree on what the government should do Politics of Economic Policy and the Canadian Market Structure Key concepts: Structure of the Canadian market, business concentration, foreign ownership, the role of natural resources, Canada’s economic regions and the political spectrum in Canada and US Lecture: The Politics of Economic Policy and the Structure of the Canadian Economy Topics: 1. Relationship between ideas and interests 2. Political spectrum in Canada and US Neoliberalism goals and policies - Individual freedom - Less government intervention o Lower taxes o Less social spending o Fewer regulations o Weaker unions o Free trade - Beliefs o Free markets o Efficiently allocate resources o Stimulate innovation o Self correct problems o Decentralize economic and political power o Supply and demand will match itself o More economic growth - Causes of problems o Individual responsibility  Homelessness = individuals fault  Financial crisis = country’s fault o Rich does not deserve to be heavily taxed, poor person did not work hard enough Keynesian welfare goals and policies - Efficiency and social justice - More government intervention o Higher taxes o More social spending o More fairness o More regulation o Stronger unions o Managed trade - Causes of problems o System responsibility, not individual  Homelessness = system fault  Financial crisis = financial system fault Ideas and interests - Robert Cox: all theory is for someone and some purpose (York political science professor) - Theories rationalize interests of specific groups - Different approaches have different goals Neoliberal ideas and interests - Firms and corporations - Wealthier individuals - Prefer less rules as they have the resources to take care of themselves - Focus on competitiveness and productivity to justify tax cuts - Focus on deficits and problems with social programs to justify tax cats Keynesian welfare ideas and interests - Unions - Low waged individuals - Social activists - Environmentalists - Prefer more rules to level the playing field - Focus on social programs to justify programs - Focus on market failures to justify regulation The Political Spectrum (Economic Policy) Left wing Centre-left Centre-right Right wing (Socialist) (Keynesian welfare) (Classical liberal) (Neoliberal) - Left right spectrum created in 1789 by National Assembly in France - Nobles supporting monarchy sat on right - Revolutionaries sat on the left - Right = conservative - Left = radicals The Political Spectrum (Social Policy) - Left wing o Pro choice o Yes to gay marriage o Favour gun control o No to capital punishment o Less spending on the military o Social progressive/liberal - Right wing o No abortion o No to gays o No gun control o Pro capital punishment o Military spending and security laws o Religious/social conservative Political Parties Left wing Centre Right wing NDP Liberals Conservatives Bloc Quebecois Green Party Republicans Toronto Star Democrats Wall Street Journal CBC National Post City TV Macleans New York Times CTV CNN Global Washington Post Bloomberg Article: The Politics of Economics – Brian Lyons Right wing view - Key ideas o Free enterprise, market system o Individual responsibility o Consumer directs businesses to produce what consumers want o Profit motive induces private producers to operate as efficiently as possible o Competition ensures that the consumer is well served regarding price, equality and service o Incentives, efficiency, creation of wealth o People get what they earn in the market place o Individualism, economic freedom - Business enterprise o Private ownership and competition - Profits o Incentive for efficiency o Reward for good management o Major source of funds o Key to economic prosperity - Investment income o Provides incentive for saving and investing their capital o Employment and prosperity o Income is earned - Labour unions o Reduces efficiency and productivity o No striking - Politics o Fear growth of the government Left wing view - Key ideas o Lack faith in free markets o Big businesses exploit workers o Unfair distribution of income o Increased risk of recessions o Need fairness and social security - Business enterprise o Heavy tax on businesses o Promote small businesses - Profits o Exploit customers and employees o Inequitable distribution of income o Money goes to rich - Investment income o Inequitable distribution o Labour of workers is the basic source of economic wealth - Labour unions o Allow workers to protect themselves - Politics o Government favours big corporations Reading: Into the Millennium – Graham Taylor Return of the Old Economy - Canada known for highly educated workforce, quality of life and natural resources - Canada’s economy is heavily based on natural resources which is vulnerable to adverse shifts in technology, markets and international competition - Suffered from declining fish stocks, abandoned mining towns and bankrupt forestry companies - Gold mining industry thrived during the 1970a - Discovery in 1991 of diamonds in the North - Vase deposits of metal fields found in Northern Ontario in 1993 - Uranium mines in Saskatchewan - Rising demand for these resources from China and Brazil which drove up the prices - Oil sands in Alberta - National Energy Program - Controversies with Aboriginal and environmental interests Monetary and Financial Policy Key concepts: macroeconomics, monetary policy, international financial policy, original period of economic globalization (before WWI) Lecture: Monetary and Financial Policy Topics: 1. Domestic macroeconomics 2. International macroeconomics 3. The world economy before the great depression Domestic macroeconomics Demand  Price  Supply  Price  - Aggregate demand: total demand for goods and services in the economy o Determined by the amount of $ consumer and firms have t
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