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GG 272 Midterm Notes (POP Geo)

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Edmund Okoree

GG 272 Chapter Readings for Midterm Introduction - For most of human history, the global population was small and grew quickly th o At the start of the 17 century, population estimates were about 500 million - Since then, advances in medicine, sanitation, and nutrition have allowed the world’s population to grow at a faster rate o 1900 – approximately 2 billion; 2009 – 6.8 billion with the last billion added in last 14 years - Most of the growth is in the developing world (Africa, parts of Asia, South and Central America) and this will continue due to high birth rates, reduced death rates, and young populations - Societies are characterized by or shaped by their population processes and characteristics - Countries are also tied together by population movement – war refugee movements and simple geographic interaction across space perpetuate poor health and disease - With population mobility and migration typically selecting the young and those with skills, who moves is just as important as the origins and destinations of migrants – most developed countries promote the entry of individuals who are able to invest in the host country or embody the education and skills that are demanded by the developed countries - Illegal immigrants and refugees dominate the international movement of people - Refugees: persons who are outside their country of nationality and are unable to return owing to fear of persecution for reason of race, religion, nationality, or association in a social or political group - Many refugees are from Sudan, Iraq, Afghanistan, and Somalia - The importance of considering fertility, mortality, and population movement is realizing the multiple interconnections with population, such that population underlies many of the issues facing the world today, including resource and environmental issues What is Population Geography and Why Study It? - Population Geography: is the study of human population with respect to size, composition, spatial distribution, and changes in the population that occur over time o Populations are altered by 3 basic processes: Fertility, Mortality, and Population Movement - Population geographers seek to understand the society around them, the structure of the population, and how it changes through births, deaths, and migrations - Demography: (has roots in the analysis of fertility and mortality stats) is the statistical analysis of population - Population studies – term used to describe non-statistical approaches to population issues - Population mobility is the key focus as it is inherently spatial, connecting places both local and international - Populations are governed by various natural laws – we are all born, age, and ultimately die What is the Geographical Perspective? - Geographic issues loom large – legal and illegal immigration; assimilation and adjustment of new arrivals to the host country; economic, social, and political responses to population movement; and population aging are among the relevant topics - The disciplinary concerns of geography – space, regional variations, diffusion, and place, and their role in the human and natural processes, such as the diffusion of ideas associated with small families or birth control techniques , which is of interest - Population geography first rose to prominence as a study of geography through Glenn Trewartha’s recommendation of increased study in 1953 - Population geography initially dealt with the geographic character of places, content to describe the location of a population and its characteristics and to explain the spatial configuration of these numbers - The emergence of desktop computing and statistical software greatly increased the flexibility and tools at the disposal of researchers, including the ability to test hypotheses through inferential techniques and apply more complex multivariate statistical analysis - Qualitative approaches offer detailed insights and geographic information systems (GIS) and spatial analytical techniques offer newer insights into population processes Current Research Themes and Contributions of Population Geographers - 6 key research themes in population geography: - Internal migration and residential mobility (most used) - International migration and transnationalism - Immigrant assimilation and adjustment and the emergence of ethnic enclaves - Regional demographic variation - Social theory and population processes - Public policy Implications of Our Choice of Spatial Scale on the Outcome - Changing the scale of analysis often implies that a different set of questions must be applied to the problem - Changing spatial scale often change what we can physically observe - The so-called modifiable areal unit problem (MAUP) – potential source of error that can affect studies that utilize aggregate data sources and is closely related to ecological fallacy, or the errors in allowing inference about individual behaviour when the analysis is base on group stats. Tools of the Population Geographer - Data – any analysis or insight into population processes is dependent on data - Researchers often turn to large, publicly available data sources such as those collected by the US Census Bureau and other statistical agencies - 2 main types – Qualitative (nonnumeric info – text, images, verbal descriptions) and Quantitative (numerical info – counts, rate, scales)  Can obtain qualitative data through case studies, open-ended interviews, focus groups, participant observation, or diary methods - Methods – methodology is important, with methods often reflecting data sources and how data is collected - Qualitative Methods – concerned with describing meaning rather than with drawing statistical inferences  While they lose generalizability and reliability, the provide greater depth of analysis along with typically rich descriptions of the process being studied - Quantitative Methods – methods that focus on numbers and frequencies rather than on meaning and experience - The wealth of data sources has enabled population geographers and other social scientists to understand population trends and their spatial consequences - Presentation – while tabular and written formats are common, the amount of data and its geographical nature means that maps are frequently used to easily and conveniently display information Chapter 1: World Population A Brief History of World Population Growth - For most of human history, the population was small and grew slowly, however, aided by food security, the shift from hunter gatherer societies to agricultural-based societies allowed the population to grow, but the population was still only about 200 million at 1 AD - High birth rates were offset by high death rates from famine, war, and epidemics - Even by 1600, the world population was estimated to be only 500 million - Beginning in the mid-1600s, the world’s population started to grow more rapidly as life expectancy slowly increased with improvements in commerce, food production and security, and nutrition, with the world’s population reaching approximately 1 billion by 1800 - Coinciding with the Industrial Revolution, the population of Europe doubled between 1800 and 1900 - Fueled by European immigration, North America’s population multiplied by 12 in the same period - Advances in medicine and sanitation increased survival and life expectancies and by 1900, the population was 1.7 billion – increased to 2 billion by 1930 - Reached 3 billion in 1960, 4 billion in 1974, 5 billion in 1986 - By mid 2009, the total population was over 6.8 billon and was predicted to reach 7 billion by 2012 - Between 1960 and 1998, the world’s population doubled from 3 billion to 6 billion - Doubling Time (where r is the annual percentage growth rate) - Regional Growth - We can divide the world into two broad regions (the developed world and the developing world) - Developed World – US, Canada, Western Europe, Japan, Australia - Developing World – all other countries roughly - Over 80% of the world’s population and 98% of the world’s population growth is occurring is in the developing world - Look at population growth rate and fertility rates to predict the future populations of countries Urban Growth - Accompanying the world’s population explosion has been the explosion in the size and number of urban areas - In 1975, only 33% of the world lived in urban areas vs. 50% in 2009 - While the developing world currently lags the developed world, the urban population in the developing world is expected to grow rapidly in the coming decades Demographic Transition - The population explosion in Western countries during the late 1800s marked the beginning of the shift from high to low mortality and high to low fertility, known to demographers as the demographic transition - The theory argues that prior to transition, birth and death rates are high, and largely cancel each other’s effect, meaning that populations grow slowly - As societies grow develop and modernize, death rates decline, but fertility remains high, corresponding to the period of rapid population growth - At the conclusion of the demographic transition, birth and death rates are again comparable, but at a much lower level than prior to transition, and population growth again stabilizes - The most important determinants of population growth are the pre-transition fertility rate and the lag time between the decline in mortality and fertility - The demographic transition has generally not finished yet in the developing world, where rapid population growth continues (mortality rates have fallen but fertility rates remain high) - Model has been criticized because of its Western-centric biases – was validated on the demographic experience of Europe and assumes that all other countries would progress similarly through its stages. The triggers for fertility reduction differ in the developing world as do access to education, employment, and the roles of women in societies. It is also relatively unable to account for myriad variations such as higher fertility levels, alternative forces associated with the decline in mortality, or social and cultural issues Future Population Scenarios: Who Gains and Who Loses? st - At the dawn of the 21 century, there was some evidence that the developing world was finally transitioning from high to low fertility, evidenced by a 2009 TFR of 2.7 ( much lower than 25 yrs before) - With the expectation that fertility rates will continue to decline, some analysts have concluded that the risk of population growth has been greatly diminished - Some have suggested the new problem is Population Deficit – the aging of the world`s population while others say that the threat of world population growth is more regional than global (India and Pakistan) - While the world`s population growth rate did peak in the 1960s and has declined since, the global population is still rapidly expanding, evidenced by a global growth rate of 1.2% - A huge proportion of the population have not started having kids – because they are kids – consequently, a world population of 8 billion by 2025 can`t be avoided and a pop between 7.3 and 10.7 billion is predicted by 2050 - On a general scale, the developed world is largely characterized by relatively slow rate of pop growth, low fertility levels, and controlled immigration - With a current growth rate of 0.2% per year, it will take approximately 350 years to double the current pop. - In developing world , rate of 1.4% means it would take 49 years to double population Continued Population Growth - The current distribution of the world`s population coupled with high fertility in much of the developing world, means that the global population will continue to grow into the near future before leveling off between 7.3 and 10.7 billion later this century, despite falling fertility rates and slowing pop growth rates since the 1960s - Rapid pop growth in the second half of the 20 century has meant that the share of the world`s population residing in the developing world climbed from 68 to 82% - The certainty of continued global pop growth is grounded in 3 assumptions: (1) improvements in life expectancy will contribute to pop growth, as individual survive longer; (2) the age structure of a pop is key to the expected future growth, with populations having a greater number of individuals in their childbearing years tending to grow faster irrespective of the fertility rate; (3) most demographers expect that fertility rates will eventually decline below replacement, ending the population explosion - The combined impact of slowing population growth or decline in some countries and continued growth in others leads to issues associated with pop aging and immigration Population Aging and Decline - Globally, the proportion of the population over 65 has grown from 5% in 1950 to 8% in 2009 – the ``tip of the iceberg`` - In much of the developed world, population aging is further advanced - Japan as well as much of Europe already have some of the highest proportions of older populations - Countries such as Canada and Japan had growth rates near 0 and were experiencing slow pop growth in 2009 - Consequently, population deficits, and the economic and social consequences of these, have increasingly emerged as an important issue for some developed countries, with commentators openly worried about the consequences of aging populations and declining population growth - Countries have looked to policies to actively promote population growth through increased fertility and/or increased immigration Immigration - In 2005, the PRB estimated that there were 191 million international migrants – 3% of the world’s people had left their country of birth or citizenship for a year or more - For the developed world, the # of international migrants stood at 120 million, while approx 61 million migrants moved within the developing world - Most of the migrations are closely linked to economic opportunities and are encouraged by globalization, which has linked skilled and low-cost workers worldwide - For developed countries like Canada, most immigrants arrive from the developing world, and immigration policies are typically structured to attract “the best and brightest” immigrants - Increased immigration may be the only option for meeting employment requirements, but it remains an option that car
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