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Population midterm

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Wilfrid Laurier University
Edmund Okoree

Population Midterm Study Notes Motivations for Studying Pop - need to understand what is going on, why so some areas grow while others decline - what fuels growth, why people move and why fertility rates differ over space/time Demography: the empirical, statistical and mathematical study of population and the factors which affect it (births, deaths, migration all impact pop) - demography focuses on three core areas: 1. size and composition of pop 2. factors which affect pop composition 3. relationship between pop and their respective environment - demography has 2 main branches 1) formal demography and 2) Population studies 1. Formal Demography - the statistical/mathematical aspects of demography - gathering, collating, statistical analysis, technical presentation of data - concerned with quantitative study of population dynamics - changes in pop size, compositions and spatial distribution of p2eople 2. Population Studies - concerned with population characteristics and trends in their social setting - # and variety of ppl in an area and any observed changes - emphasis on identifying determinants of demographic change - identifying the consequences of population change (individuals/society) Population Geography: the study of the spatial aspects of population in the context of the aggregate nature of places - concerned with simple description of the location of population numbers and characteristics - explanation of the spatial configurations of pop #s and characteristics - the geographic analysis of pop phenomena- evolution of human societies and distribution of global ppl - focuses on spatial dimensions of demographic variables and their outcome - fertility, mortality, migration - a central concern is population distribution - largest body of geographical population research focuses on migration - age, sex, martial characteristics given high priority because of their impact on demographics Social and economic indicators: education level, language, religion, ethnicity, occupation, rural/urban residential characteristics Broader Human Context of Population - population and resources - population and environmental quality - population policy Geographic Approach to Population 1. Spatial Analytical Perspective (quantitative) - portrays cartographically and/or statistically a variable population pattern, which can then be analyzed in terms of the factors that produced it - patterns used as means to discover the processes that gave them shape 2. Place-Oriented Perspective (qualitative) - portrays interrelations between population and resource issues - identification of a special problem at a particular place - investigation of pop phenomena contribution to the problem and adaptations being made to cope with it - emphasis placed on local historical, environmental and cultural condition as the basis for explanation Terms/Concepts Data Events: reportable happenings for the purpose of population studies(birth, deaths, moves) Count: tabulation of absolute #’s Statistical Refinement of Counts Rates: frequency of an event during a given time period for a specified population Crude Rate: based on an entire population Specific Rate: based on a selected group Ratios: relate one population sub-group to another sub-group of the same population Cohort Measures: record events happening to a population of a unified type through a specific period of time Sources of Pop Data 2 major sources of population data: - 1. population census - 2. vital statistics(as well as 3.sample survey) 1. Population Census: the total process of collecting, compiling and publishing demographic, economic and social data pertaining, at a specific time, to all persons in a country or delineated territory - should be for specific time, should cover everyone Importance of Census- planning, policy guidelines and projections - monitoring current demographic trends and applied programmes - scientific study of inter-relationships between demographic phenomena and socio-economic developments Ideal Attributes of a Census - Universal - cover all residents - Simultaneous- well-defined time (every 5 years) - Regular- regular intervals - Legitimate- elected gov’t Criteria for Census Questions - value to the nation- needs of users - suitability- willingness/ability to provide accurate info - comparability- spatio-temporal Socio-cultural Characteristics: place of birth, citizenship, immigration status, official language Socio- economic characteristics: education, occupation, income, employment status etc 2. Vital Statistics: a vital registration system deals with recording of vital events - collection, compilation, processing - it is a continuous process, as vital events occur daily - Canada initiated a national system of vital registration in 1921 Vital Events: births, deaths, marriage, divorce, abortion Requirements for an Efficient Vital Registration System 1. Events must be recorded shortly after it occurs, as officially defined, in Can it is 5-15 days 2. Must be recorded where it occurred 3. Free registration, or only a nominal fee charged 4. Binding on all citizens - official list of events that must be reported, varies from country to country - in Canada, citizens are obligated to report: live birth, death, fetal death, marriage, divorce, legal separation, annulment, adoption (vital events) 3. Sample Survey: focuses on segments of a population and on particular issues- housing, labour force, health, general social characteristics - increasingly used as a way for collecting info about a population Advantages of Sample Surveys - can be undertaken much quickly than regular census - much cheaper to administer- useful to developing countries - potential for great accuracy and better quality data and less paper work Requirements for Efficient Sample Survey: 1. Effective Sampling Design (no bias) 2. Sampling design must lend itself to estimations of sampling errors Factors Affecting the Results of Sample Survey - characteristics of subject, or of person collecting the info - the amount of supervision and collection procedure used - the type of questions being asked (wording) Quality and Completeness of Population Data - directly related to levels of economic development - absent, incomplete or poor quality data in the poorest countries Population Change Medium of Change -most fundamental characteristic of any pop is its size - considerable interest in understanding the spatio-temporal aspects of changes in pop - pop changes occurs through 2 main ways: 1) natural change- # of ppl born/die 2) migration- immigration/emigration Basic Demographic Equation - referred to as “demographic Balancing Equation”- helps calculate the change in the pop of an area between 2 points in time P2=P1+B-D+I-O P2= final pop (time 2) D= deaths during interval P1= starting pop (time 1) I= in-migration during interval B= births during interval O= out-migration during interval (or another way) P2= P1+(B1,2-D1,2) + (I1,2-O1,2) OR P2=P1(natural increase, 2) + (net migration 1, 2) Growth Rate -a measure of the average annual rate of increase for the population of an area - a reflection of how rapidly (or slowly) pop change is occurring - calculation of Growth Rates: GR=P2-P1 X100 P1= pop @ beginning of year P3 P2= pop @ end of year P3= mid-year pop - growth rate includes changes from all sources - 2 important ways of illustrating how fast global pop is changing 1) doubling time 2) # of years to add a billion Doubling Time - the # of years that would be required for a pop to double in size - assumes that the pop continues to grow at a specific rate annual - calculated using “the law of 70”- divide 70 by the annual rate of pop growth Number of Years to Add a Billion - # of years it has taken for a billion ppl to be added to global pop over years 1 billion= all of human history till 1804 nd 2 = 123 years, 1927 3 = 33 years, 1960 4 = 14yrs, 1974 th 5th 13yrs, 1987 6 = 12 yrs, 1999 7 = 12 years, 2011.... has begun to level off th th Projection- 8 billion= 17 years by 2028 and 9 billion= 22 years, 2050. Caution - changing growth rates do not necessarily mean changes in birth rates - a natural increase in population does not necessarily mean growth in pop - a numerical growth/decline in pop does not necessarily mean a growth/decline in rate of population growth Environmental Resistance - difference between the potential growth and the actual growth of a population - the composite effect of all factors acting to prevent a population from growing at its reproductive potential - fluctuates in magnitude over time/space Future Perspectives Nebulosity Principle - the future pop size is uncertain because its a reflection of the consequences of actions yet to be taken Population Projection - calculation of the demographic consequences of a continuation of specified growth rates between a specified data and date in the future Projections -growth rates rest on assumptions of future rates of: fertility, migration, mortality - usefulness of projections rests on how well the assumptions made align with actual events High Scenario= higher level of fertility in the future Medium Scenario Low Scenario= lower fertility in the future - we want to move away from high scenario in future as much as possible (prefer medium) Population Forecasts - forecaster goes beyond assumptions about vital statistics by looking at all the potential influence on population growth - eg events going on in society World Historical Population Growth 3 importants eras of surges in global pop growth: 1)The Cultural Revolution 2)The Agricultural Revolution 3) The Scientific-Revolution Revolution The Cultural (Tool-Making) Revolution - pre-industrial period of nomadic people, acquisitions of; clothing, fishing and hunting tools Demographic Impact: growth in pop, lowered vulnerability to variations of weather - increased control over the environmental - the pop growth is still slow, with low densities The Agricultural Revolution - development of cultivation and domestication around 10 000 BC in SW Asia - Neolithic era- establishment of settlements - change from nomadic to a sedentary way of life - food surpluses freed people to do other activities such as weaving/sculpting - development of a # of invention and innovations and village settlements - irrigation, metallurgy, long-distance trade - resulted in: increased ability to satisfy needs from the environment Demographic Impact: gradual increase in rate of pop growth/greater pop density, however, growth in pop checked by food shortages, famine, wars and epidemics etc. The Industrial Revolution th - 18 Century England- spread to other parts of world - Industry replaced agriculture as major sector of economy - countries began to gain control over death rates - reduction in localized effects of famine ; better agricultural practices/improved distribution - improved sanitary practices/facilities and major medical advances Demographic Impact: period of accelerated and sustained pop growth - 19 Century- growth in developed countries - mid 20 Century- growth in developing countries The Theories of Population Change Malthusian Theory - Malthus wrote his essay on population in 1798 during a period of great social and economic upheaval in Britain - Essay written in response to William Godwin, who argued poverty could be overcome by changing property rights - Malthus rejected measures to help the poor, arguing that short-term comfort would rapidly give way to long-term misery - If you help poor, the pop will grow and won’t be able to support ourselves - Said population grows at a geometric (faster rates) but supply of food grows at a arithmetic rates (slower) (eg geometric=2,4,6,8 arithmetic=1,2,3,4) - Population grows faster than food, outcome is an imbalance between #’s of ppl (demand) and amount of food produced (supply) - Population growth press against means of maintaining itself unless prevented by positive checks: Positive checks: affect death rates; disease, famine, war Preventive checks: affect birth rates; delayed marriage, abstinence, birth control Shortcomings of Malthusian Theory - Land seen as the major factor limiting expansion in food supplies - Ignored other factors that increase food production, such as improve crop rotation patterns, fertilizers, genetically modified seeds etc. - Failed to anticipate advances in transportation technology/expansion of trade - Failed to anticipate widespread acceptable of contraceptives - Assumed transfers of wealth to the poor would result in population growth; however, broad-based increased in wealth are actually associated with lower birth rates - In developing country- population growth is actually higher among the power, so
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