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3701 Final Exam Review.pdf

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3701 Final Exam Review PURPOSE OF HAZARD RISK AND VULNERABILITY ANALYSIS 1. Make informed choices to address vulnerabilities 2. Mitigate impacts of hazard 3. Prepare for response to hazard events 4. Recovery from hazard events OBJECTIVE RISK AND PERCEIVED RISK ASSESSMENT 1. Based on scientific data, tools, and methods 2. Individuals personal perception of threat and intuition RICK ASSESSMENT – 3 DISTINCT STEPS 1. Identification of hazards – ‘’what hazard events might occur’’ 2. Estimation of the likelihood of such events – ‘’probability that it will occur’’ 3. Evaluation of the social consequences of hazard – ‘’likely loss created by such event’’ DEFINING RISK • RISK = HAZARD X ELEMENTS AT RISK X VULNERABILITY • RISK(R) = PROBABILITY X LOSS RETURN PERIOD (RECURRENCE INTERVAL) • (Tr) = n+1/m • n = number of records (number of years of data) • m = rank (1 being highest) ANNUAL FREQUENCY • AF = 1/Tr PHASE OF ANALYSIS – RISK ASSESSMENT PROCESS 1. Risk identification a. Event monitoring (statistical inferences) 2. Risk estimation a. Magnitude/Frequency (economic costs) 3. Risk evaluation a. Cost/benefit analysis (community policy) PHASE OF ANALYSIS – RISK PERCEPTION PROCESS 1. Risk identification a. Personal awareness 2. Risk estimation a. Personal experiences 3. Risk evaluation a. Personality factors PERCEINVED RISK CONxEQUENCES IN STANDARD RISK FORMULA • Risk = P X L • WHERE X IS A POWER THAT DEPENDS ON SEVERAL FACTORS RISK AVERSION FACTOR • Risk = p x l x f(x) ACCOUNTING FOR PEOPLES PERCEPTION • Risk = H x (V x cp) • H: hazard, or likelihood, or probability • V: vulnerability, impact, severity • Cp: community perception of the impact of disasters, measured on a 5 point scale PERCEPTION EXAMPLES • Personal experiences make a difference • Community may not approve a high cost risk control measure KEY ISSUES SURROUNDING RISK COMMUNICATION 1. Peoples initial perception of risk OFTEN INACCURAE 2. Risk information OFTEN FRIGHTENS AND FRUSTRATES PEOPLES 3. STRONGLY HELD BELIEFS hard to modify, even when justification of those beliefs is incorrect 4. STRONGLY HELD PRECONCEIVED VIEWS HARD TO CHANGE 5. SIMPLISTIC VIEWS EASILY MANIPULATED BY PRESENTATION FORMAT THE REVEALED PREFERENCE APPROACH 1. How people behave – by assuming that through trial and error society has arrived at an acceptable balance between the risks and benefits associated with any activity a. This approach is used to formulate laws of observed behavior THE EXPRESSED APPROACH 1. Uses questionnaires to express verbally what their preferences are 2. People may not act in the way they said they would when facing with a situation in reality INFLUENCE IN SHAPING PERCEPTION OF HAZARDS • Direct experience • Indirect experience • Aspects of personality • Geographical location • Personal knowledge • Tv, radio, internet RISK PERCEPTION – STRESS ASSOCIATED WITH UNCERTAINTIES 1. Determinism: not believing in random elements of hazards 2. Dissonance: denial of risk; past event viewed as a freak occurrence unlikely to be repeated 3. Probabilistic: perception; random nature of hazardous events is understood but sometimes leads to an ‘act of god’ syndrome FUNDAMENTAL RISK MANAGEMENT DILEMMA • ‘’where should we spend whose money to undertake what programs to save which lives with what probability’’ 1. Educational: public information programs to people take voluntary actions to reduce risk 2. Economic: subsidies, tax credits, fines to encourage compliance with hazard reduction policies 3. Regulatory: relevant authorities enforces compliance with safety requirements through FORCE OF LAW and the threat of prosecution for non compliance FOCTORS TENDING TO INCREASE RICK PERCEPTION 1. Involuntary hazard 2. Immediate impact 3. Dreaded hazard 4. Lack of belief in authority FACTORS TENDING TO DECREASE RISK PERCEPTION 1. Voluntary hazard 2. Slow on-set disaster 3. Common hazard 4. Statistical victims 5. Familiar hazards PRE DISASTER PROTECTION 1. Risk assessment • Hazard identification • Loss estimation • Vulnerability mapping 2. Mitigation • Protective structures • Insurance • Life planning 3. Preparedness • Forecast systems • Warning schemes • Safe refuges 4. Emergency plans • Evacuation routes • Practice drills • First aid supplies POST DIASATER PROTECTION 5. RELIEF • Search and rescue • Food and shelter • Medical aid 6. REHABILITATION • Debris removal • Restore public services • Temporary housing 7. RECONSTRUCTION • Permanent rebuilding • Improve designs • Avoid hazard zones 8. LEARNING REVIEW • Educate teachers and builders • Train volunteers • Inform politicians HAZARD IDENTIFICATION AND RISK ASSESSMENT • A comprehensive DOCUMENT • It is a risk based assessment • USEFUL o Helps emergency management professionals to prepare for the worst and/or most likely risks o Allows for the creation of exercises, training programs based on most likely scenarios o Saves time by isolating hazards that cannot occur in the area o Helps programs become pro active than re active • NOT INTENDED TO BE USED AS A PREDICTION TOOL TO DETERMINE WHAT HAZARD MIGHT CAUSE THE NEXT EMERGENCY • PURPOSE: to prevent, mitigate, prepare, respond, and recover • HIRA REVISED o 3 new hazards added § Cyber attack § Geomagnetic storm § Natural space object crash • HIRA METHODOLOGY o Risk = frequency x consequence x CHANGING RISK o Changing risk = change in frequency x change in vulnerability o Hazards are not static • HIRA METHOD – CONSEQUENCE 1. Social impacts 2. Property damage 3. Critical infrastructure failures 4. Environmental damage 5. Business/financial impact 6. Psychosocial impact HAZARD, RISK, VULNERABILITY ANALYSIS • PURPOSE o Anticipating problems and possible solutions o Helps work towards disaster resilient communities v To help communities make informed risk-based choices to address vulnerabilities, mitigate hazards/disasters and prepare for a response to/and recovery from hazardous events • PLANNING 1. Hazard identification – identify and monitor hazards § Natural § Human caused § Technological 2. Risk assessment – conduct a risk assessment § Likelihood of a hazard § Impact of the risk 3. Business impact analysis § Critical business functions § Build on findings from risk assessment • 8 STEPS 1. administration 2. training 3. gather information 4. hazard and vulnerability identification 5. risk analysis 6. risk evaluation 7. public consultation plan 8. action plan • 4 types of vulnerabilities 1. Social vulnerability § CONFINED § ELDERLY § GENDER § HIGH DENSITY § LANGUAGE § DISABILITIES 2. Physical vulnerability § BRIDGES § COMMUNICATION SYSTEMS § HAZARDOUS WASTE SITES § HISTORIC SITES § WATER RESERVOIRS AND HYDRO DAMS 3. Economic vulnerability § FARMLAND AND LIVESTOCK § LIMTITED ACCESS TO CREDIT § NO INSURANCE § LOW INCOME NEIGHBOURHOODS § LACK OF ECONOMIC DIVERSITY 4. Environmental vulnerability § AREAS OF BIODIVERSITY AND ECOLOGICAL VALUE – WETLANDS § RESOURCE DEGRADATION OR DEPLETION – FORESTS § SENSITIVE AREAS – COASTLINES, FISHERIES • CONSEQUENCE – SEVERITY § FATALITY § INJURY § CRITICAL FACILITIES § LIFELILNES § PROPERTY § ENVIRONMENT § ECONOMIC AND SOCIAL PART TWO LOSS ACCEPTANCE Due to § Low priority to natural hazards § Lack on information and capita, rather than choice § Limited scientific knowledge § Unaware that they live in hazardous locations THREE PRACTICAL HAZARD-REDUCING ADJUSTMENTS 1. Mitigation – modify the loss burden § Disaster aid and insurance measures § Most limited response § It is a loss sharing device, could be used as loss reducing in the future 2. Protection – modify the event § Relies on science and civil engineering; reduce hazard by exerting limited control over the physical processes through structural measures § ADJUSTING DAMAGING EVENTS TO PEOPLE v SOCIETIES OF INTERVEENTION § Macro protection: large scale defenses designed to protect whole communities § Micro protection: strengthening individual buildings against hazardous events 3. Adaption – modify human vulnerability § ADJUSTING PEOPLE TO DAMAGING EVENTS § Rooted in applied and social science § Community preparedness, forecasting, warning schemes, land-use planning MITIGATION – DISASTER AID § Is the outcome of humanitarian concern after a sever loss o 4 priorities of disaster aid 1. protection of life 2. health 3. subsistence 4. physical security • aid flows through, governments, NGO’s, and private donors • only 1/3 of aid received from government, therefore dependent on public appeals • aid used for recovery processes o Relief § Emergency period § Floods – epidemic diseases § Earthquakes – bone fractures, physiological trauma § ‘’golden hours’’ after the event o Rehabilitation § Lives, livelihoods, infrastructure § Special attention to women, children, elderly o Reconstruction § Longest period § Disaster prevention than emergency relief § Focus on long term development of health, education, welfare INTERNAL GOVERNMENT AID • Disaster mitigation often achieved through spreading financial load to the tax paying population
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