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Administrative Studies
ADMS 3701
Niru Nirupama

Choices we make - river side residence - Sea side cottages, retirement homes - Interior/parkland residences - Tectonically risky regions Involuntary risks - fishermen - Oil fields - Mining workers - Forest management personnel - Factory workers - Farmers in floodplains - Nuclear plant employees Voluntary risks - risks we take based on a cost benefit analysis Purpose (hazard and risk vulnerability analysis) - make informed choices to address vulnerabilities, mitigate impacts of hazards, prepare for response to and recovery from hazard events Objective risk and perceived risk assessment - based on scientific data, tools and methods - Individuals personal perception of threat and intuition Risk assessment has three distinct steps 1. The identification of hazards likely to result in disasters- what hazardous events may occur? 2. The estimation of the likelihood of such events -is the probability that is will occure? 3. The evaluation of the social consequences of the hazard - what is the leikely loss created by each event Ways of defining Risk Risk = Hazard x Loss Preparedness RISK = HAXARD X ELEMENTS AT RISK X VULNERABILITY RISK (R) = PROBABILITY (P) X LOSS (L) Loss in $ value Expected loss with probability $ loss (L) Probability (p) 0 0.950 100,000 0.030 500,000 0.015 1,000,000 0.005 R=P1L1+P2L2+....+PnLn = 0.950x0=0.030x100,000+0.015x500.000+0.005x1,000,000 = $15,500 Loss of Life Expected loss of life with probability Casualties probability 0 0.990 10 0.006 20 0.003 30 0.001 Relationship between recurrence interval, frequency, and magnitude of hazards Estimating the return period (recurrence interval) Annual frequency probability of occurrence The probability of occurrence of floods of various magnitudes during a period of 30 years Major difference between risk assessment and risk perception Phase of analysis Risk assessment Risk perception process process Risk Identification Event monitoring, Individual intuition, statistical inferences personal awareness Risk estimation Magnitude/frequency, Personal experiences, economic costs intangible losses Risk evaluation Cost/Benefit analysis, Personal factors, individual community policy action Illusion of the standard risk formula Perceived consequences in standard risk formula RISK = PxL X (power x) Where the X is a power that depends on a number of factors, and X > 1 Risk Aversion Factor Risk = PxLxF(x) Accounting for peoples perceptions R= HxV (V x cp) R = risk H = Hazard (or likelihood or probability) V = Vulnerability/ impact/severity Cp = community perception of impact of disaster, measured on a 5-point scale 5 point scale to measure community perception Very severe occurrence(s) with severe impact on a large number of people, critical infrastructure, and/or the environment hence community consent to positively invest in protection and mitigation measures as a priority RANK % Severe occurrence(s) with sever impact on some people, few essential services and/or the environment hence cautious community consent to invest in hazard protection and disaster mitigation measures RANK 4 Somewhat severe occurrence(s) with major impact on few people and/or essential services, and/or the environment hence community consent to invest in hazard protection and disaster mitigation measures in selected areas RANK 3 Occurrence(s) with significant impact on some people, and/or essential services and/ort the environment hence community consent to invest in hazard protection and disaster mitigation measures - not priority RANK 2 Occurrence(s) with minor impact on some people, and/or essential services and/ort the environment hence community consent to invest in hazard protection and disaster mitigation measures RANK 1 Perception examples - community may not approve a high-cost risk control measure - Damage potential is limited so not a high priority for a community - Disaster risk reduction activities should be compared with other social needs - Gradual mitigation and preparedness actions - Mix of immediate and gradual mitigation and preparedness actions - Serious damages expected so immediate actions preferred - Persona experiences make a difference Key issues surrounding risk communication - peoples initial perceptions of risk are often inaccurate - Risk information often frightens and frustrates the public - Strongly-held beliefs are hard to modify, even when the justification for those beliefs is incorrect - Strongly-held pre-conceived views are hard to change - Simplistic views are easily manipulated by presentation format. For example, saying that there is a 10% chance of an event occurring, rather than a 90% of chance that is will not happen The revealed preference approach - how people behave- taken as a reflection of public perception by assuming that, through trial and error, society has arrived at an acceptable balance between the risk and benefits associated with any activity - This approach is used to formulate laws of observed behavior The expressed approach - uses questionnaire surveys to ask a sample of people to express verbally what their preferences are - People may not act the way they said they would when faced with a situation in reality Influences in shaping the perception of hazards - direct experience - Indirect experience - Personal knowledge - Geographical location - Television - Radio - Internet Risk perceptions: dealing with the stress associated with uncertainties - determinism : not believing in random element of hazardous events - Dissonance: denial of risk; a past event is viewed as a freak occurrence unlikely to be repeated - Probabilistic perception:random nature of hazards is well understood, but sometimes leads to a fatalistic “Act of G-d” syndrome Fundamental risk management dilemma “where should we spend whose money to undertake what program to save which live with what probability - educational: public information programs so people can take voluntary action to reduce risk - Economic: subsidies, tax credits and fines to encourage compliance with hazard reduction policies - Regulatory: the relevent authority enforces compliance with safety requirements through the force of law and the threat of prosecution for non_compliance Factors tending to increase risk perception - involuntary hazard (radioactive fallout) - Immediate impact - wildfire - Direct impact - earth quake - Dreaded hazard - cancer - Potential multiple fatalities - air crash, ferry - Unfamiliar hazards - examples? - Lack of belief in authority - private industry - Much media attention - example ? Factors tending to decrease risk perception - voluntary hazard (mountaineering) - Slow onset disaster - drought - Indirect impact - drought - Common hazard - road accident - Deaths random in space/time - disease, outbreak - Statistical victims - cigarette/drug related - Controlled hazard - ice on highways - Familiar hazard - floods - Belief in authority - university scientist Reduction of risk through pre-disaster protection and post disaster recovery activities Post disaster recovery Pre disaster protection Learning review Risk Assessment - educate teachers and - hazard identification builders - Data base assembly - Train volunteers - Loss estimation - Inform politicians Rehabilitation Risk assessment - debris removal - hazard identification - Restore public services - Database assembly - Temporary housing s - Vulnerability mapping - Loss estimation Reconstruction Preparedness - permanent rebuilding - forecast systems - Improve design - Warning schemes - Avoid hazard zones - Safe refuges - Stockpile aid Relief Emergency plans - search and rescue - evacuation routes - Medical aid - Practice drills - Food and shelter - First aid supplies Practice questions There is a 10% probability that about 500 people will be injured from a severe weather event this year. Estimate the risk? R(risk) = P (probability in decimal point) x L (expected loss) How would you account for the 10%? = 10 100 R = 0.1 x 500 R = 50 people You have 39 years of flood records in a region. If the RANK of a certain intensity flood is four, what would be the annual frequency (AF) of an event of the same intensity? T(return period) = n+1 years M Here: N = 39 M = 4 We know that annual frequency AF = 1 T = 0.1 per year Note* the units of the return period and the annual frequency are important to mention Determine the retune period of the 3rd highest ranking event using the following list of the top 6 cyclones based their wind speed during a time period of 1925 - 2000 Typhoon Tip in 1979 Typhoon Keith in 1997 Typhoon Vera in 1959 Typhoon Vera of september 15,1959 Hurricane Camille in 1969 Hurricane Allen in 1980 Length of the data recover = 1925-2000= 76 years Rank, m = 3 Return perdiod T r 76 + 1 = 25.6 years 3 Probability of occurrence, p% = 1 x 100 = 3.9 25.6 Most intense mainland US CATEG Min Pressure RANK Hurricanes YEAR ORY (mb) 1 FL (Keys) 1935 5 892 2 CAMILLE (MS/SE LA/VA) 1969 5 909 3 KATRINA (SE LA, MS) 2005 3 920 4 ANDREW (SE FL/SE LA) 1992 5 922 5 TX (Indianola) 1886 4 925 6 FL (Keys)/S TX 1919 4 927 7 FL (Lake Okeechobee) 1928 4 929 8 DONNA (FL/Eastern U.S.) 1960 4 930 8 FL (Miami)/MS/AL/Pensacola 1926 4 930 10 CARLA (N & Central TX) 1961 4 931 11 S TX 1916 4 932 12 LA (Last Island) 1856 4 934 12 HUGO (SC) 1989 4 934 14 TX (Galveston) 1900 4 936 15 RITA (SW LA/N TX) 2005 3 937 16 GA/FL (Brunswick) 1898 4 938 16 HAZEL (SC/NC) 1954 4 938 18 SE FL/SE LA/MS 1947 4 940 18 TX (Galveston) 1915 4 940 20 N TX 1932 4 941 20 CHARLEY (SW FL) 2004 4 941 Total number of records? Which is the 10th ranking event according to the min pressure data? Return period? What is HIRA? - a hazard identification and risk assessment - A risk assessment tool that can be used to assess which hazards pose the greatest risk in terms of how likely they are to occur and how great their potential impact may be - Not intended to be used as a prediction tool to determine which hazard will cause the next emergency Purpose of HIRA - several must be asked when faced with this challenge: - What hazards exist in or near my community? - How frequent do these hazards occur? - How much damage can they cause? - Which hazards pose the greatest threat? HIRA benefits - assist in preparing for the worst and/pr most likely hazards - Save time and expense by isolating hazards which cannot affect your community - Allows for the creation of emergency plans, exercised and training based on the most likely and/or highest risk scenarios - Helps programs to become proactive rather than just reactive HIRA steps HIRS’s in Ontario - emergency management programs in Ontario are required to be risk-based - Each ministry and municipality is required to develop its own HIRA - Each HIRA should account for differences in local hazards and risks - A HIRA is only one part of a comprehensive emergency management program - Once a HIRA has been developed, attempts must be made to reduce risk 2012 provincial HIRA - emergency management Ontario is responsible for the creation and maintenance of the provincial HIRA - Purpose of this HIRA is to identify t
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