BA 30310 Quiz: Foresight Quiz 3 Part 3
Foresight Quiz #3
• Importance of Baseline Forecasts and the Expected Scenario:
o If the probability of expected future occurring is LOW, why is a baseline
forecast important?
▪ Requires evidence
• forces us to be evidence based
▪ Forces us to identify forces of change and have clarity on indicators
▪ Forecasts current trends, based on best available data to project most
likely surprise-free future scenario
▪ Serves as starting point for consideration of disruptions of future
uncertainties & for development of alternative scenarios
• What is a Scenario?
o Scenario:
▪ stories about way world might turn out tomorrow
• helps to recognize
• adapt to changing aspects of present
▪ POSSIBILITIES, not predictions
▪ Payoff =
• better decisions, NOT better predictions
▪ Person who writes scenario must be a good storyteller
o Common characteristics:
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