BA 30310 Quiz: Foresight Quiz 3 Part 3

61 views2 pages
22 May 2018
School
Course
Professor
Foresight Quiz #3
Importance of Baseline Forecasts and the Expected Scenario:
o If the probability of expected future occurring is LOW, why is a baseline
forecast important?
Requires evidence
forces us to be evidence based
Forces us to identify forces of change and have clarity on indicators
Forecasts current trends, based on best available data to project most
likely surprise-free future scenario
Serves as starting point for consideration of disruptions of future
uncertainties & for development of alternative scenarios
What is a Scenario?
o Scenario:
stories about way world might turn out tomorrow
helps to recognize
adapt to changing aspects of present
POSSIBILITIES, not predictions
Payoff =
better decisions, NOT better predictions
Person who writes scenario must be a good storyteller
o Common characteristics:
find more resources at oneclass.com
find more resources at oneclass.com
Unlock document

This preview shows half of the first page of the document.
Unlock all 2 pages and 3 million more documents.

Already have an account? Log in

Get access

Grade+20% off
$8 USD/m$10 USD/m
Billed $96 USD annually
Grade+
Homework Help
Study Guides
Textbook Solutions
Class Notes
Textbook Notes
Booster Class
40 Verified Answers

Related Documents